European Market Update: BOE Inflation report less dovish (TTN)
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
European Market Update: BOE Inflation report less dovish
***Economic Data*** - (FR) France Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 120.03 v 120.04e - (FR) France Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e - (FI) Finland Sept Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 2.4% prior; Y/Y: 8.6% v 6.3% prior - (GE) Germany Oct Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.3% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 7.7% v 7.6% prior - (FR) France Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.7%e - (FR) France Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.1% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 5.1%e - (SP) Spain Sept House transactions Y/Y: -4.1% v 29.6% prior - (DE) Denmark Oct CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e - (DE) Denmark Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.6%e - (SW) Sweden Sept Industrial Production M/M: 2.7% v 2.1%e; Y/Y: 10.5% v 11.0%e - (SW) Sweden Sept Industrial Orders M/M: +5.6% v -5.9% prior; Y/Y: 13.7% v 12.6% prior - (IT) Italy Sept Industrial Production M/M: % v -0.3%e; Y/Y: % v 12.8% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: % v 7.6%e prior - (NO) Norway Oct CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.2%e - (NO) Norway Oct CPI Underlying M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e - (NO) Norway Oct Producer Prices incl.Oil M/M: 0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 18.0% v 19.7% prior
Fixed Income - (EU) ECB allotted $65M in 6-day USD liquidity operation at fixed 1.19% - (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold â‚¬5.5B vs â‚¬5.5B Indicated in 12-month Bills; avg yield 1.778% v 1.441% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.09x v 2.16x prior - (GE) Germany sold â‚¬4.93B in New Dec 2012 Schatz; avg yield 0.980% v 0.760%; Bid-to-cover: 1.4x v 2.2x prior - (RU) Russia sells RUB487M vs RUB15B Indicated in OFZ Bonds; avg yeld 4.29% (SW) Sweden Debt Agency sells SEK2.5B in 5% 2020 Bonds; avg yield 2.822%; Bid-to-cover: - (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold total â‚¬1.24 vs â‚¬1.25B Indicated in 2016 and 2020 Bonds - Sold â‚¬556M in 4.20% Oct 2016 OTs; avg yield: 6.156% v 4.371% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 2.1x prior - Sold â‚¬686M in 4.80% Jun 2020 OTs; avg yield: 6.806% v 6.242% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 4.9x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - BOE Inflation report less dovish than expected - Australia's confidence numbers decline after the RBA rate hike - China selectively tightens rate and confirms RRR hike - G20 leaders gather in South Korea
Equities: Eurostoxx 50 at 2871, -0.65%, FTSE100 at 5845, -0.51%, CAC40 at 3918, -0.70%, DAX at 6758m, -0.43%
- European shares were down this morning following losses on Wall Street and Asia. The decline was led by a fall in the financial sector and the mining names which slipped along with commodities prices. Investors are taking a cautious stance ahead of the G20 this weekend. Today, markets are eyeing BoE inflation report and jobless claims in the US. In banking names, Natixis [KN.FR] which reported yesterday during the NY session, fell 10% at the open after missing both net earnings and revenues, citing changes in value of company's own debt. UniCredit [UCG.IT] also lost about 1.7% after bank missed expectations. The bank reported a decrease in loan loss for provisions which was not enough to offset the significant decrease in trading income during the year. The ROE had also declined on a yearly basis. These results dragged down Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] which is expected to reported today after the European close. On the other hand, ING [INGA.NV] gained during the session after its Q3 results. The underlying pretax profit for the banking unit had increased over the year, while insurance posted a significant decline due to an annuities charge. The shares were also lifted by the announcement that the company would bring hedging and accounting for US business more into line with US peers. - In insurance name, Allianz [ALV.GE] fell at the open by about 1.2% despite exceeding expectations. Net income fell to â‚¬1.3B from â‚¬1.37B last year but it was still above analysts estimates. Company gave a bullish guidance forecasting FY10 Op profit at upper range of goal at â‚¬7.2B. Solvency ratio fell to 168% from 170% last quarter. This is against the general trend noted in European insurance names so far which reported an increase in profit, except Zurich Financial reporting a decrease in net income due to an exceptional charge. Its home rival, Hannover Re [HNR1.GE] reported a 66% increase in net income and boosted its profit. Shares earned about 3.1%. - In UK names, Prudential [PRU.UK] rose about 8% in London trading after its third quarter update. Sales for the third quarter had increased by 17% and company noted a robust trading in Asia as earnings in the region grew 34% bringing 9-month profit from new business at Â£1.3B. J Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] fell about 3.4% in the session despite an increase in net earnings. However, pretax profit failed to meet expectations. Also, in line with most UK retailers, company expects environment to remain challenging and are anticipating the toughest Christmas season 'in many years'. - AP Moller Maersk [MAERSKB.DE] exceeded expectations and boosted guidance for net profit to $5B from $4B. Shares gained about 1%. Swiss cement maker Holcim [HOLN.SZ] fell about 3% after reporting a decrease in its results and noting that it would be challenging for the firm to meet its EBITDA of previous years.
Speakers: - US President Obama issued letter to G20 members and stressed that the global economic recovery was most important issue . The letter noted that the United States would do its part to restore strong growth, reduce economic imbalances, and calm markets. A strong recovery that creates jobs, income and spending was the most important contribution the United States can make to the global recovery". The letter noted that the USD's strength ultimately rested on the fundamental strength of the U.S. economy. - Canada Fin Min Flaherty commented on G20 Communiquand stated that he did not expect the formal document to mention the Fed's launch of QE2 but should address protectionism. -The impact of QE was likely 'appreciative' on currencies like CAD but conceded that the Fed had no choice on the matter as additionally fiscal stimulus politically was unlikely. He noted that G20 language on currency valuation was a 'work in progress' and that the Fed's QE might be one of a series of variables to be discussed at the leader summit. He stressed that Brazil's use of currency control was a source of concern. Undervalued currencies like China's CNY must be more flexible and done so more quickly. - China President Hu reiterates his country's view that global economic recovery was fragile and imbalanced - Canada Central Bank (BOC) Gov Carney: There is a limit to withdrawing ultra-loose monetary policy given US economic weakness and currency tensions - Brazil Fin Min Mantega commented that the 'currency war ' has gained in intensity adding that the Fed's monetary policy was to weaken the greenback. The minister stated that Brazil would continue to take measures to slow the appreciation of the BRL as the USD/BRL rate at 1.69/USD was not satisfactory. On the reserve currency front, he reiterated the BRIC members view that the USD should replaced by a basket of currencies, which should include the BRL and CNY pairs. The Greece 2010 budget deficit is expected to be revised wider to 9.2-9.3% of GDP compared to the official Gov't target of 7.8%. The Greek 2010 deficit to be higher than expected on weak revenues and the resulting revision of 2009 deficit by EuroStat - Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report largely reflected its Aug views and stressed that CPI was seen picking up further near term and staying above 2% through 201. The central bank again noted that CPI would fall back below target in 2 years assuming constant policy.The BOE noted that the timing and extent of CPI decline was uncertain, roughly equal chance CPI above or below target in 2 years time.
Currencies: The FX markets initially saw a gentle and tame European morning after the rise in volatility exhibited on Tuesday around the session's close. The EUR fell against the USD on Tuesday amid ongoing concerns over the unsustainable debt levels in Portugal (and other peripherals). The EUR/USD tested a pivotal support of 1.3730 in Asian and managed to climb back around the 1.38 area for most of the morning again aided by alleged Far East and Mid-East sovereign names. However, the release of the BOE quarterly inflation report was a bit more hawkish than expected and the report sent the GBP/USD higher by 60 pips to test 1.6050 area and the CPI concerns were reflected in fixed income as the UK 10-year Gilt yield rose by 6bps towards 3.13%
Geopolitical/In the papers: - The Wall Street Journal reported that the Head of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency said they were open to demand inspections of suspicious nuclear sites in Syria. It also wants to renew talks with Iran, as it has given no indication of being willing to suspend atomic work. - According to the Financial Times, banks with a domestic focus may be exempted from the Basel III capital requirements. The move may benefit domestically focused banks in countries such as China and Japan. The article adds that the G20 may classify banks into 2 groups, the first group would be firms that have the potential to destabilize the financial system and the second list would include banks that are important to the financial systems in their own countries.
***Looking Ahead *** - (PO) Portugal Sept Construction Works Index: v 69.4 prior - 6:00 (IR) Ireland Sept Industrial Production M/M: No est v -13.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 9.6% prior - 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK6B in 2.8% Sept 2013 Bonds - 6:00 (RU) Russia to sell Up to RUB15B in OFZ Bonds - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 5th: no est v -5.0% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Sept Current Account: -â‚¬1.3Be v -â‚¬1.1B prior; Trade Balance: -â‚¬569M v -â‚¬786M prior - 8:00 (RU) Russia to sell Up to RUB15B in OFZ Bonds - 8:30 (CA) Canada Sept Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$1.6B v -C$1.3B prior - 8:30 (US) Sept Trade Balance: -$45.0Be v -$46.3B prior - 8:30 (US) Oct Import Price Index M/M: 1.2%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 3.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 450Ke v 457K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.305Me v 4.340M prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Gross Fixed Investment: 4.1%e v 0.8% prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds - 14:00 (US) Oct Monthly Budget Statement: -$140.0Be v -$176.4B prior - (PE) Peru Sept Trade Balance: No est v $395.6M prior -19:01 (UK) BOE's Haldane Speech - (KS) G20 Summit of World Leaders on Nov 11-12th - 21:00 (CH) China Oct Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 4.0%e v 3.6% prior - (CH) China Oct M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 19.0%e v 19.0% prior - (CH) China Oct New Yuan Loans (CNY): 437.5Be v 595.5B prior - (CH) China Oct China Property Prices: 8.9e v 9.1 prior
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