Wednesday November 10, 2010 - 19:20:45 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex Research - Morning Report (TTN)
Morning Report Thursday 11 November 2010
News and views
Risky currencies continued to slide. There were several events last night contributing to the risk averse tone to markets, including the 50bp increase in China's reserve requirements, some negative Eurozone news, and worries about a QE2 backlash at today's G20 meeting. A clearing firm raised the margin on Irish bond trades, Portugal managed to issue bonds but at a much higher cost, and Greece's budget deficit reportedly reached 15.5% (compared to 13.6% estimate). Irish 10yr government bonds rose by 69bp, Portuguese +28bp, and Greek and Spanish +10bp. European equities closed down 1.6%, although US equities (+0.1%) were less affected, perhaps due to the decent jobless claims data. Commodities were 0.8% weaker overall, copper -1.7%, but oil +1.1% on lower inventories. US 10yr treasury yields are 5bp higher at 2.70%, but were as high as 2.77%. The 30yr auction was terrible, 5bp above market and weakest bidding in a year.
The US dollar index was supported by the above events, rising for the fourth day in a row. EUR was surprisingly well contained, given the adverse sovereign developments, ranging between 1.3750 and 1.3825 apart from a NY dip to 1.3670. GBP outperformed, rising from 1.5960 to 1.6124 after an inflation report which was not as grim as feared. USD/JPY was impressive rising from 81.65 to 82.80.
AUD largely ranged between 1.000 and 1.0072, dipping to 0.9975 during the NY morning.
NZD consolidated above its domestic low between 0.7770 and 0.7850. AUD/NZD hugged the 1.2850 area, apart from a brief dip to 1.2810.
US initial jobless claims fall 22k to 435k last week. There were no special factors at play behind this steeper than expected fall according to BLS. But note that unadjusted claims rose and a useful rule is to be cautious about over-interpreting seasonally adjusted weekly data. Still on the surface, and more so than the claims fall a few weeks back which was probably a holiday distortion, this suggests an early November improvement in the labour market in the week prior to the monthly payrolls survey.
US import prices up 0.9% in Oct. Just over half of this was due to oil prices but ex oil import prices rose 0.4% in Oct, the strongest rise since April-May, and yet another sign of USD weakness. The ex oil rise was driven by industrial supplies and food (i.e. commodities and other goods whose price is largely driven by raw commodity prices). Capital equipment import prices however were flat and consumer goods prices fell. The report also showed a 0.8% rise in export prices - again driven by food and industrial supplies.
US trade deficit narrows $2.5bn to $44.0bn in Sep. That reflected a modest 0.3% rise in exports, while imports fell 1.0%. Prices were a factor on both sides of the balance, but volumes were also down. That could mean that the 2 ppt drag on Q3 GDP growth gets revised lower, although in a qualitative sense lower volumes tend to imply softer economic activity.
Bank of England quarterly inflation report. The BoE said prospects that the CPI would be at the 2% target in two years were roughly balanced, though the detail in the report revealed that precise probabilities are 55% CPI below target, 45% above. The Bank also sees just a 10% chance of negative annual GDP growth during 2011. Further ahead, in 2013 the Bank assesses the most likely outcome is below target inflation (60% chance in H1 2013) but risks are skewed to the upside. That is only modestly supportive of further quantitative easing early next year, which remains Westpac's view.
Canadian trade deficit C$2.5bn in Sep, the fifth in a row and just shy of the recent record deficit in July. Exports fell 1.7% (all due to lower volumes; prices rose 0.5%) while imports rose 1.2%, mostly due to higher prices. Not a favourable mix for the net export contribution to Q3 GDP growth.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: AUD has significant event risk today from the Australian employment report and a swag of Chinese data. The 1.0000 major support level has not yet been convincingly broken, and should provide support ahead of the events. NZD should hold above 0.7690 today.
.Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 13 August 2010. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpacâ€™s
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