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Thursday November 11, 2010 - 03:44:47 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 11-Nov-2010 -0342 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Dow and S&P 500 recoevered from early losses to close in the green, Dow closed at 11,357 (up 0.09%), S&P 500 closed at 1219 (up 0.44%). Dow bounced from our expected support of 11,250 and we expect a test of resistance between 11,380-400.As long as Dow can hold above 11,200 on a closing basis, bias remains bullish for an eventual move towards 11,450. Trinity at play in markets with: Dow, DOllar and Long Bond exhibiting highly correlated moves.

Asian indices are heading higher with Hangseng and Shanghai up almost a percent each. Hangseng at 24,704 (up 0.83%) and Shanghai at 0.66% (up 0.66%). Nikkei is marginally in the green at 9859 (up 0.29%). We expect equity indicies to continue to trade higher for the rest of the trading day. Nifty closed at 6275 (down 0.41%), right on its key support band of 6260-70. As long as 6260 holds minor trend remains bullish for a target of 6360-70 in the coming sessions. A break below 6260 can trigger a fall towards 6220.

COMMODITIES
Crude (87.95) has risen sharply and recorded an intraday high of 88.21 yesterday. The EIA's data release that showed an unexpected drop of 3.3 million barrels in US Crude inventories against the expected increase of 1.4 million barrels supported the price rise. As we have been mentioning for some time, the outlook remains bullish for a rise towards 90-93 in the coming days/weeks.

Gold (1401.70) fell sharply yesterday. However, it has bounced back from near its significant Support at 1380 and is retaining its overall bullish sentiment intact for a rise towards 1450-70 on a strong break above 1420 in the coming weeks.


CURRENCIES
Interesting market. The Dollar Index (77.75) rose to a high of 78.17, just above a crucial Resistance at 78.10, but has dipped back below it. Last night, the Euro (1.3802) had dropped to a low of 1.3669 on a weaker than hoped for response to the Portuguese bond sales yesterday, but has bounced back well from there, as people probably wanted to cover Euro Shorts ahead of the G-20 that has started today. The US is on holiday today (Veterans' Day), so market action might be muted.

Dollar-Yen (82.10) rose to 82.79 yesterday, past an important trendline Resistance at 82.40, but has fallen back again. A Day Close above 82.40 hereafter would signal a reversal of the long-term downtrend that has been prevailing in Dollar-Yen so far. Watch out for that, buy on dips might be a good idea.

The Pound (1.6159) did extremely well yesterday, rising from a low of 1.5960 after the BOE Inflation report suggested that inflation will remain above 2% in 2011. This is seen as reducing the chances that the BOE will undertake further QE like the Fed has done. Decent chances of the Pound moving up towards 1.63, or even 1.64. Dollar-Swiss (0.9695) is trading a little lower than yesterday's high of 0.9767, in an overall sideways range of 0.96 and 0.98. The Aussie (1.0061) has been bobbing up and down in a range of 0.9975-1.0075 since yesterday (barring a spike to 1.0094 today morning. With Support at 0.9975, it might move up towards 1.0145.

Among the Emerging currencies, the Korean Won (1103) has strengthened again from yesterday's level of 1120. The Sing Dollar (1.2850) has also gained all over again. Dollar-Rupee (44.30 yesterday) might dip towards 44.25-20 today.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The 2Y yields were unchanged at 0.42% and the 10Y yields were down 1 bps to quote at 2.63%.

Treasuries rose after the US Fed said it will buy $105 billion in Treasurys starting from Friday through early December. This is the first round of the Fed's $600 billion in purchases which it announced last Wednesday as a measure of pushing down long-term borrowing costs for consumers and businesses in order to stimulate the US Economy.


DATA TODAY
Oct Australia Labour Force
...Actual 29.7K...Previous 49.5K

DATA YESTERDAY
US Sep Trade Balance
...Actual $ -44.0 Bln...Previous $ -46.3 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ustrbal.shtml

 

 

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15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
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John M. Bland, MBA
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