European Market Update: G20 Summit underway; Peripherals debt continues to widen in Europe (TTN)
Thursday, November 11, 2010
European Market Update: G20 Summit underway; Peripherals debt continues to widen in Europe
***Economic Data*** - (IN) India Primary Articles WPI w/e Oct 30th Y/Y: % v 15.4% prior; Food Articles WPI Y/Y: % v 12.9% prior - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve: $499.2B v $495.6B prior - (HU) Hungary Oct Consumer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.0%e - (SP) Spain Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e ; (First YoY rise since Q3 2008) - (TU) Turkey Sept Current Account (TRY): -4.1B v -3.8Be v -3.0B prior - (SW) Sweden Oct CPI Headline M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e; CPI Level: 305.57 v 305.57e - (SW) Sweden Oct CPI Underlying M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e - (SW) Sweden Oct AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.5% v 4,5%e - (PO) Portugal Oct Consumer Price Index: 0.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.9% prior - (PO) Portugal Oct CPI EU Harmonized: +0.3% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.0% prior - (GR) Greece Aug Unemployment Rate: 12.2% v 12.0%e (record high)
Fixed income - (EU) ECB allotted â‚¬12.6B in its 6-Day Fine-Tuning Operation at fixed 1.0% - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold HUF50B in 12-Month Bills; avg yield 5.94% v 5.82% prior - (UK) DMO sold Â£2.0B in 4.5% Sept 2034 Gilts; avg yield 4.194% v 4.200% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.53x v 1.56x prior; Tail 0.4bps
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - G20 Leader Summit begins in South Korea - Former Fed Chairman Greenspan: US is deliberately devaluing USD - US Tsy Sec Geithner: US was not deliberately weakening the dollar - China CPI at 2-yr high at 4.4%; Industrial Production at 13-month low at 13.1% - Moody's raises China sovereign rating one notch to Aa3 (high grade) from A1 (upper medium grade); Retains Positive outlook - Peripheral Europe spreads at record levels for Ireland, Portugal and Spain - Commodity exchanges in the U.S. and Europe raising margin requirements as prices surge. - US Fixed income marlets close but equity markets open for Veterns Day
Equities: Eurostoxx 50 at 2838 -0.3%, FTSE100 at 5821, +0.1%, CAC40 at 3883, -0.10%, DAX at 6729, +0.1%
- European shares opened higher in the early trade but turned negative within an hour despite positive corporate earnings. Macroeconomic events dominated the market's fluctuations. China's rising CPI and PPI data which boosted commodity stocks was not enough to offset the losses of the banking sector which was pressured by continuously rising peripheral spreads due to mounting sovereign debt concerns. The Spanish GDP also came in line with estimates which indicates a stagnant recovery in the country. Cisco's disappointing earnings also pressured European techs. Investors are also taking a cautious stance ahead of the G20 summit in Korea. If the summit doesn't produce a convincing communique that heralds international cooperation to correct current account imbalances, financial market participants will be concerned that further protectionism will hamper economic recovery. - Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] rose in early trading after reporting better than expected results and an increasing net income boosted by higher French retail revenues and lower provisions. Greek unit Emporiki continues to pressure its net income in international banking revenues which came in negative for the 9th consecutive quarter. Credit Agricole was the last French bank to report stating that it would not need to increase capital over Basel III, in line with its European peers. Corporate and investment banking declined slightly over mixed segment performance. Shares are currently trading in the red. - Siemens [SIE.GE] reported its preliminary Q4 suffering a wider loss than expected due to one-time â‚¬1.2B impairment charge. Operating profit and revenue however surpassed expectations. Order intake grew in all regions over the year although backlog had declined slightly due to currency translation effect. What drove shares higher was the announcement that the company would boost its dividend to â‚¬2.7 from â‚¬1.60 while analysts had predicted an increase of 13%. Company cited demand and sales order growth. - BT [BT.UK] also rose in European trading as it beat expectations for the second quarter and raised its FY forecast. UK's biggest property company Land Securities [LAND.UK] rose in London trading after swinging to profit and and noting that London office rents were growing. Deutsche Postbank [DPB.GE] gained in the session after both its net and revenue had increased over the year. However, the German lender expects its Q4 profit to be lower than Q3. - German solar name RWE [RWE.GE] disappointed markets on its Q3 net and noted that company was to face significant risks due to nuclear German nuclear tax. Furthermore company said it saw negative free cash flow in 2011 and 2012. Telefonica [TEF.SP] was also among the decliners following a disappointing quarter on domestic concerns and lackluster performance of its key Brazilian unit Vivo
Speakers: - US Tsy Sec Geithner commented in a CNBC interview that the US was not deliberately weakening the USD but rather the softness was reflected in growing confidence of global recovery. He noted that the USD benefited from safe-haven flows during the economic crisis and trends are reversing as the recovery becomes sustainable. - US Treasury Official stated that the US and Germany discussed recent criticism of the Fed's QE2 measures. The discussion also focused about avoiding the creation of new economic risks. The official noted that US/China bilateral summit focused mainly on currency issues - ECB Gonzalez-Paramo stated that there could be an interest rate change before ECB removal of the central bank's extraordinary measures. He reiterated that theECB did not see any pressures on price stability at the moment. On the topic of FX, he noted that it would not be responsible to talk about exchange rate but did believe that a strong USD benefited the US economy. - Russia G20 delegation commented that his country was concerned by decisions by some to weaken their currencies. Russia did not support current account targeting and developing countries should use necessary regulation to avert any negative effect of inflows - China Foreign Ministry reiterated the view that China would keep CNY stable at a reasonable and balanced level and added that the country's currency policy was responsible. It pledged to improve and increase flexibility of exchange rates - Brazil's out-going President Lula commented that advance nations needed to increase their domestic demand. He expressed less concern about the fate of BRL then he was about the USD depreciation trend. He observed the BRIC members call that the US could not have the only reserve currency. Brazil was undertaking measures to address the BRL currency but it would not fix its exchange rate. - ECB published its Nov Monthly Report with the bulk of the comments mirroring the Nov 4th Trichet press conference that interest rates remained appropriate; economic growth to remain moderate and uneven. The ECB also released its Q4 survey of professional forecasters which raised the 2010 EMU GDP view to+1.6% from +1.1% seen in its Q3 survey. The 2011 growth was revised a touch higher to +1.5% from +1.4% survey in Q3. - ECB's Stark commented that the euro currency was a stable one and that there was no crisis in the euro itself but was one of public finances within the region. He noted that excess liquidity has been drastically reduced. - German parliament budget commission might limit 2011 net new borrowings to approx â‚¬48B
Currencies: - Peripherals concerns continued to simmer as multiple PIIGS hit record spreads against the 10-year Bunds. Dealers highlighted the uncertainty by observing that no bids were seen in the markets for Irish Portuguese or Greek bonds in the morning session. Dealers also observed that Portuguese bonds currently trading through the level that can trigger higher margin requirements at LCH Clearnet. Rumors were swirling of rescheduling discussions added to the overall nervousness of the environment. German press noting that EMU states were considering possible aid for Ireland as the yields climbed (but duly added that the country had yet requested such aid at this time). As the NY morning approached there was renewed chatter that ECB was buying peripherals debt - The EUR/USD began the morning at 1.3800 but drifted below 1.3730 as the session progressed. On a technical note dealers were eyeing the 1.3740 - 1.3825 range as probably defining the next 150 pips but noted the divergence between the daily and weekly charts at this time.
Geopolitical/In the papers: - In German press there were reports that the EMU states are considering aid for Ireland though the country has not yet requested any sort of aid. The rises in the Irish yields are noted as a cause for concern. During yesterday's session, an IMF spokesperson said that Ireland has not requested financial assistance.
***Looking Ahead *** - (IS) Israel Oct Trade Balance: No est v -$952M prior - 6:00 (IR) Ireland Oct CPI: % v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.5% prior - 6:00 (IR) Ireland Oct CPI EU Harmonized: % v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: % v -1.05% prior - 6:00 (SA) South Africa Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: % v 0.7%e; Y/Y: % v 3.0%e - 7:00 (IC) Iceland Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.1% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.0%e v 8.1% prior - 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Benchmark Repo Rate unchanged at 7.00% - 12:00 (EU) ECB's Mersch, IMF's Vinals Speak At Conference in Luxembourg - 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Oct REINZ Housing Price Index M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -33.1% prior; HPI: No est 3192.9 prior - 18:00 (US) Fed's Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in Atlanta - (PE) Peru Cental Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Reference Rate unchanged at 3.00%
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