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Friday November 12, 2010 - 03:12:17 GMT
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E-mini S&P 500 Finishes Lower in Light Trade; Watch for Weekly Reversal Top

The December E-mini S&P 500 finished lower on Thursday on light volume in a holiday driven trade. This market did make an attempt to sell-off but failed to even take out Thursday’s low at 1201.75 before selling pressure subsided.


The range this week is 1224.75 to 1201.75. The retracement zone of this range is 1213.25 go 1216.00. This area could be tested again tomorrow. If this market is topping, then it is likely to stop in this zone and form a secondary lower top.


The E-mini S&P 500 is also battling a weekly closing price reversal top. Last week’s close was 1222.00. This price is likely to be defended by the bears if the market makes it that high. A close under this price will form a simple weekly reversal, but a close under 1213.25 will make the reversal top more impressive, setting up a possible 2 to 3 week break into 1196.25 to 1189.50.


The EUR USD continued its sell-off on Thursday after turning the main trend down on the daily chart earlier in the week.


Downside momentum indicates that the break is likely to continue down into an uptrending Gann angle from the 1.2644 bottom at 1.3544 on Friday.


Based on the main range of 1.2587 to 1.4282, the retracement zone at 1.3510 to 1.3434 is also a potential downside target.


The area to watch for a technical bounce is at the support cluster at 1.3544 to 1.3510. This area is being created by the Gann angle and the 50% level.


The main catalyst behind the current weakness is debt issues in Ireland and Spain. Spain is also feeling pressure from the harsh austerity measures which may be the cause behind the lack of growth in third quarter GDP.


On the upside the Euro is walking down a Gann angle at 1.3802. Continue to look for the weakness to continue as long as this market remains under this angle.


Today’s U.S. Veteran’s Day holiday is taking its toll on stock market volatility and volume on Thursday. The stronger Dollar is helping to keep downside pressure on the equities markets, but there doesn’t seem to be a strong enough seller present in the market to drive the December E-mini S&P 500 through the previous day’s low at 1201.75.


Problems in the Euro Zone peripheral countries of Spain and Ireland continue to weigh on the Euro, encouraging traders to shed risky assets, but this hasn’t translated into the heavy selling pressure we are likely to see on Friday when the market’s reopen at full strength.


Currently, the December E-mini S&P 500 is in a position to post a weekly closing price reversal top. At this time, it has confirmed a daily reversal top from earlier in the week, but a weekly reversal will be a strong indication that this market is set up for a minimum 2 to 3 week correction. Based on the near-term range of 1167.75 to 1224.75, the most likely downside target would be a retracement zone at 1196.25 to 1189.50.


The December Euro is down sharply on Thursday as weak data from Spain demonstrated that the crisis-hit European Union countries will continue to put selling pressure on the single currency. This morning Spain reported a disappointing steady gross national product. Combined with the Irish debt issues brewing, traders are currently implementing a “sell first, ask questions later” strategy.


In failing to show growth during the third quarter, the data from Spain may be showing that the country’s new tougher austerity measures may be taking their toll on growth and expansion. One telltale sign that traders are taking the matter seriously is the widening of the spread between Spain’s 10-year benchmark bond yield and the comparable German bond. On Thursday, the spread reached 215 basis points, a five month high.


Technically, the main trend is now down on the daily chart following a break through two main bottoms at 1.3733 and 1.3698. Based on the main range of 1.2587 to 1.4282, watch for the correction to continue down into a retracement zone at 1.3434 to 1.3234.


Earlier today selling pressured pushed the Euro through an uptrending Gann angle at 1.3727. The failure to hold this level is likely to trigger a further decline into another Gann angle at 1.3524. There are no major support clusters set up at this time which means the market could attempt to test several areas before establishing solid support.


On the upside, a downtrending Gann angle from the 1.4282 main top comes in at 1.3882 today. This angle is followed by additional angles at 1.4082 and 1.4182.



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