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Friday November 12, 2010 - 16:13:40 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (TTN)

Friday, November 12, 2010 11:10:08 AM

 US Market Update

Dow -90 S&P -13.5 NASDAQ -29

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 11.8% v 11.1%e
- (RU) Russia Q3 GDP Y/Y: 2.7% v 5.2% prior
- (US) Nov Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 69.0e v 67.7 prior

- US equity markets are making new lows in early trading as risk aversion continues to be the order of the day. Asian markets traded off hard after Chinese data showed inflation in that country was at two-year highs, raising fears that more policy tightening would be on tap in
Beijing. Persistent Irish bailout rumors and denials pushed EUR/USD as low as 1.36 earlier on and then yanked the pair back up over 1.3750 in US session trading. With the G20 summit more or less a bust, with a watery statement that seems to push the timeline for dealing with trade and FX imbalances into 2011, there is little comforting data for traders to hold on to. Note that the preliminary University of Michigan confidence data was a little higher than the October final number, which itself was the lowest since last fall. Commodities are getting killed this morning. After making a run for $1,400 before the open of equity trading, gold is well off its highs, trading around $1,385. Crude is not far off its lows for the week, just below the $86 handle. Grains are lower across the board by 1.5% or more. Treasury markets are mixed with the long end outperforming the rest of the curve ahead of the first official QE2 coupon purchase.

- In consumer oriented earnings, Disney missed earnings and revenue targets in its Q4. Shares of the firm sank more than 4% late in the afternoon yesterday after the firm's Q4 report was leaked early on the web. Shares of DIS have traded up 5% in today's session. Wendy's had a mixed Q3 report: the company boosted its dividend and stock buyback program after missing the Street's revenue expectations and cutting its FY10 EBITDA outlook. All in all, Wendy's offered a bearish forecast for comps through the end of the year and into FY11.
WEN is down 4%. Shares of JC Penny are in the red after the retailer offered unremarkable results and reiterated its guidance. Dillard's is up more than 12% on very strong earnings.

- In tech, Nvidia's quarterly report was right in line with expectations. The chipmaker forecasted higher sales for the current quarter and said its mobile business would take off next year when tablets and smartphones will begin using its Tegra chips. Shares of NVDA are up nearly 8%. Solar panel manufacturer SunPower crushed earnings and revenue assumptions in its Q3, although it was more conservative on guidance for Q4 and FY11. On the conference call, executives said the company is seeing more demand than it can meet. SPWRA is up 4%. Electronics testing equipment maker Agilent posted a quarterly profit that comfortably beat market expectations as orders jumped 32%, and forecast a strong current quarter. Shares of Agilent are up 3.5%. In other tech news, Intel is up more than 2% after hiking its quarterly dividend by 15%.

- The European peripheral situation, specifically
Ireland, continues to rattle currency markets. There have now been several rounds of rumors that and €80B bailout of Ireland was imminent, followed closely by denials out of the Irish government. Despite the back-and-forth, sentiment was building that some sort of deal is likely in the works. The timing of the G20 and euro group appear to be right on, and both the EU and Germany had clarified that any bailout would likely come under the existing European Financial Stabilization Facility. EUR/USD was just off its best level in early NY morning after testing 1.3750 in the midst of the bailout rumors.

***Looking Ahead*** - 13:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.1% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.1% prior
- 14:00 (EU) ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo Speaks in Lugo, Spain
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Trade Balance: No est v -$111.6M prior
- 16:35 (US) Fed's Raskin Speaks on Mortgage Servicing in Boston
- Weekend (JP) APEC Leader Summit



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