European Market Update: EuroStat formally revises Greece debt-to-GDP ration higher to 15.4% from 13.9% prior (TTN)
Monday, November 15, 2010
European Market Update: EuroStat formally revises Greece debt-to-GDP ration higher to 15.4% from 13.9% prior
***Economic Data*** - (IN) India Oct Monthly Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.5%e - (FI )Finland Oct CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.4% prior - (FR) France Sept Current Account: -â‚¬4.4B v -â‚¬4.3B prior - (CZ) Czech Sept Export Price Index Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.6% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: 6.2% v 5.2% prior - (CZ) Czech Oct PPI Industrial M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.8%e - (FI) Finland Sept Current Account: â‚¬400M v â‚¬0.450M prior - (SZ) Swiss Oct Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.7%e - (DE) Denmark Oct Wholesale Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 6.2% v 5.5% prior - (IT) Italy Sept Total Trade Balance: -â‚¬3.2 v -â‚¬3.0B prior; EU Trade Balance: -â‚¬440M v -â‚¬829M prior - (NO) Norway Oct Trade Balance (NOK): 23.4Bv 23.4B prior - (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Trade Balance: â‚¬2.9B v â‚¬0.1Be; Trade Balance Seasonally Adj: â‚¬2.4B v -â‚¬1.4B prior;
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - Portugal Foreign Minister warns of possible Euro exit - Greece deficit to GDP ratio official widened to 15.4% from 13.9%; Debt to GDP the highest in EU - Ireland 'confesses' bailout talks have taken place following 'intense' German/EU pressure - Japan Q3 GDP beats expectations
Equities: As of 5:31 ET EuroStoxx at 2820.7, -0.06%, FTSE100 at 5789, -0.12%, CAC40 at 3825.35, -0.18%, DAX at 6734.4 at-0.01%
- European markets fell at the open on debt concerns from Ireland with banks and commodities stocks leading the decline. At the time of writing, DAX is the only bourse paring the early losses and trading up slightly at less than 1% following the open. German retail industry group HDE was reported to say that this Christmas would be the best season in Germany in five years and it expected an increase of 2.5% y/y. - There fewer corporate earnings reporting as earnings season is slowing down. Among notable German names, GFK [GFK.GE] reported an increase in both revenues and net and reaffirmed its FY10 guidance. Koenig and Bauer [SKB.GE] reported a much narrower loss from its prior year level. Revenues had also increased and the company noted that it would consider paying a dividend at the end of December after a 2-year freeze. - In France, Energies Nouvelles [EDF.FR] rose up slightly as it reported a 9.5% increase in its revenues and confirmed its EBITDA growth target. - In UK, Lonmin [LMI.UK] gained about 4.2% in the FTSE100 which was its biggest gain since Nov 4th on good results. Company also reinstated its dividend as demand for metals and prices increased.
Speakers: - Eurostat finally released its long awaited revision of Greece's 2009 deficit to GDP ratio from 13.9% to 15.4% (in line with expectations) and noted that it saw no further revision to Greek data. It did also revise prior years 2006 thru 2008 upwards as well with the 2008 Deficit to GDP at 9.4%, 2007 at 6.4%, 2006 at 5.7%. It noted that Greece's Govt 2009 debt to GDP ratio was now the widest in the Euro Zone at 126.8% (next is Italy at 116%). - Greece Fin Min Papaconstantinou reiterated that the country would meet its 2010 deficit-to-GDP ratio target of 9.4% from 15.4% y/y and committed to bringing the 2014 deficit below 3% of GDP. He noted that 2009 Eurostat deficit revisions did affect the country's current policy and to target additional public spending cuts. The minister pledged that no further increases in taxes or cuts in either pension and income - Ireland press noting that the country was considering asking the EU for funds for domestic banks at EcoFin this week and that the funding would be to fend off a state bailout. The article noted that the Irish government could unveil budget before the expected date of Dec 7th in order to calm markets - India Fin Min Mukherjee stated the country had yet to see the full impact of central banks interest rate increases. The minister reiterated that headline inflation would decline back towards 6% by end of fiscal year in March but would not prejudge if the RBI needs to perform additional interest rate increases - China Vice Premier Li Keqiang wrote in the Chinese press that loose monetary policies abroad could increase international turbulence in financial markets and higher commodity prices. Slow global economic growth had created new pressures on China's ability to expand foreign demand for its goods and to maintain fast, steady economic growth. Hot money flows wouldill impact emerging economies development Structural changes in global demand are pressuring China's fast growth. - ECB member Ordonez commented that Spanish banks reliance on wholesale funds had raised their vulnerability. He noted that such banks needed more and better capital as they were too reliant on foreign financing and could not rule out a temporary 'uptick' in non-performing loans (NPLs) - ECB's Weber commented that a stable financial system was key to financial growth and noted that Basel III would not hamper growth and would make banks more stable - ECB member Nowotny stated at the Austrian central bank conference that growth prospects for Central European economies (CEE) still remained fragile. He added that nearly all CEE countries expected to grow this year, based on restocking and external demand but risks remained. CEE growth would be above EU average but below pre-crisis levels and stressed that it was necessary to reduce deficits and debt levels as soon as macro-economically possible - German retail industrial group HDE commented in a press interview that Germany was expected have best Christmas period in five years and forecasted an increase of 2.5% y/y
Currencies: - Peripheral debt concerns continued to weigh upon the Euro currency as Irish officials reportedly refuse to ask for any EU rescue package. The EUR/USD remained above the 1.3575 low seen on Friday but was lower by around 50pips from its Tokyo open. EUR/CHF moved below the 1.34 handle and was some 20 pips lower from its Tokyo open. The peripheral bond action diverged a bit from the currency price action with most spreads narrowing a touch. Talk that Ireland would ask for cash for its banks rather than the official government budget had little impact on price action. - The USD/JPY pair was firmly above its former May downtrend line of 82.60 area but encountered some headwinds in trying to move above the 83 handle. Nonetheless the technical picture for the pair appears to be gaining some momentum with post intervention high of 86.00 possible in play.
Geopolitical/In the papers: - In the Wall Street Journal, citing an interview with Expresso, Portugal Foreign Affairs Minister Luis Amado said that Portugal faces "a scenario of exit from the euro zone" if it fails to tackle its economic challenges. The country's economy, deficit and fractured government are a threat to its stability. - Irish Fianna Fail member and minister of Irish parliament O'Keefe said the up and coming 2011 Irish budget will incur no change to the corporate tax rate. Earlier during the session the Irish government stated in the Irish press that it could unveil budget a week before the expected date of December 7th in order to calm markets. - The Telegraph's Ambrose-Evans Pritchard noted that the EU faces the risk of a 1931-type double-dip. The ECB, rather than the Fed, should be printing money on mass scale for government debt purchases. In addition, he sees EU's European Financial Stability Facility (EFSB) as flawed. If Ireland asks for help, chain reaction to unfold, "starting with Iberia." Despite Ireland Premier Cowen's insistence there is adequate funding, says this is unlikely to be enough, with private sector funding evaporating for banks and likewise for Irish companies. - Commenting in the Financial Times, Man Group CEO Clarke stated that the decision by the government to abolish the FSA has damaged London's ability to withstand punitive regulation from Europe. The FSA has demonstrated over many years successful oversight of the hedge fund industry. The article goes to state that it is not yet clear whether BoE will regulate hedge funds under its new macro-prudential responsibilities.
***Looking Ahead *** - (PO) Portugal Q3 labor Costs: % v 1.2% prior - (PE) Peru Sept GDP Y/Y: % v 9.2%e v 9.2% prior - (PE) Peru Oct Unemployment: No est v 7.6% prior - 6:00 (NV) Netherlands Debt Agency to Sell Up to â‚¬7.5B of Feb, Mar and SepT 2011 Bills - 6:00 (IS) Israel to Sell ILS200M 3.5% 2013 Bonds; Sell ILS200M 4.5% 2015 Bonds; Sell ILS300M 0.5% 2013 I/L Bonds; to Sell ILS250M 2020 Floating Notes - 6:30 (CL) Chile Oct Copper Exports: No est v $3.9B prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Oct CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Oct Advance Retail Sales: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior - 8:30 (US) Nov Empire Manufacturing: 14.0e v 15.73 prior - 9:00 (PD) Poland Oct Budget Level YTD (PLN): No est v -39.5B prior; Budget Performance YTD: No est v 75.7% prior - 9:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) to sell up to â‚¬7.5B in 13-week, 26-week and 52-week Bills; - 9:30 (EU) ECB Calls for Bids in 7-Day Tender - 10:00 (US) Sept Business Inventories: 0.8%e v 0.6% prior - 11:30 (IS) Oct Consumer Prices M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.4% prior - 11:30 (US) Treasury to Sell $29B in 3-Month; sell $28B in 6-month - 12:00 (EU) EU's Juncker Speaks in Frankfurt - 21:00 (CH) China Sept Conference Board Leading Economic Index - 21:00 (CH) China Oct Actual FDI Y/Y: 10.4%e v 6.1% prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.