Wednesday April 20, 2005 - 01:15:25 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 20th April 2005 Price:
Resistance: 107.12 ... 107.45 ... 107.80 ... 108.05
Support....: 106.64 ... 106.31 ... 105.95 ... 105.64
Cautiously we feel there is greater chance of recovery
Losses seen to 106.70 and we feel there is a good chance that this formed the low for the correction from 108.88. However, we do need some better signs of recovery to confirm. There is resistance around 107.12 which could stall upward progress this morning in Asia and further resistance at 107.43-46. It is the higher level that needs to break to bring more confidence of a resumption of the longer term uptrend. Above 107.46 would trigger gains to the 108.05 area which should cap on first test.
Break of 106.87 seen but the losses holding above 106.62. We are cautiously bullish but do recognize one small risk that until 107.12 and 107.46 are broken there could be one further test lower with key supports at 107.52 and also 106.26-31. Next support is at 105.64-95.
Elliott Wave Comments:
19th April 2005
While the downward move yesterday appears to be in line with the expectations of a move to the 106.87-107.10 area we notice a slight ambiguity to the decline and feel that we need be flexible in case a triangle may be in formation which could mean a move back up to 108.55-68 and then maintain the sideways move for a further few days. Otherwise the comments made yesterday still hold.
20th April 2005
The decline to 106.69 may well have completed the downside but we do note the 138.2% Wave c target is at 106.52. A full 61.8% correction in Wave [b] is at 106.26. Thus while there are arguments to suggest the downside is complete (also considering the 106.84-99 pivot support area) we still need to be a little cautious at this stage. Thus we require a move back above 107.46 and preferably the Wave b resistance at 108.05 to feel more confident that we should see the expected resumption of the uptrend in Wave [c] of Wave [iii]. Until this break we do need to be aware of the risk of a dip to 106.26-52.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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