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Monday November 15, 2010 - 13:55:11 GMT
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E-mini S&P 500 Holding Last Week’s Low

The December E-mini S&P 500 made a successful attempt to hold last week’s low at 1191.50. This was critical because a break through this price level will confirm the Weekly Closing Price Top that was formed last week. Once confirmed this type of top often leads to the start of a 2 to 3 week break. The objective of is usually a percentage retracement of the last major range. Based on a range of 1032.50 to 1224.75, watch for a possible correction to 1128.75 to 1106.00.


On the daily chart, the E-mini S&P 500 made and confirmed a closing price reversal top at 1224.75 last week. Based on the last daily swing up of 1167.75 to 1224.75, the first downside target was 1196.25 to 1189.50. This retracement zone has been tested and is providing some support overnight.


In addition to the retracement zone, an uptrending Gann angle at 1193.75 is providing additional support. This angle stopped the break on Friday. Should this angle fail to hold as support, the next support angle at 1180.75 could be tested.


Here’s what to look for today. If 1191.50 holds as a low, then the market may retrace at least 50% of the swing down from 1224.75. The upside target of this range comes in at 1208.00 to 1212.00. Downtrending Gann angles from the 1224.75 top are at 1208.75 to 1216.75. This makes 1208.00 to 1208.75 an important resistance cluster. Bearish traders may sell at this cluster in an effort to form a secondary lower top.  On the upside, a breakout over 1212.00 could send the market to 1216.75.


The U.S. Dollar remains the main catalyst behind the E-mini S&P 500’s movement. A stronger Dollar is likely to keep the pressure on risky assets like equities. Should the Greenback weaken, then look for the stock indices to strengthen.


The December Australian Dollar was under pressure last night for the sixth straight day, but may have found support at the 50% level of the intermediate range of .9462 to 1.0182. The Mid-Point of this range is .9822 and the Fibonacci level of this range is .9737.


The current short-term range is .9651 to 1.0182. This range has created a retracement zone at .9917 to .9854. The main range is .8770 to 1.0182 with .9476 to .9309 its retracement zone.


It is important to look at all three ranges because although the market is down 6 days from the top, no short-term, intermediate term or long-term main bottoms have been violated, meaning the uptrend is still in tact. In addition, one should note the 50%/Fib cluster at .9822 and .9854.


Last week the Aussie broke a long-term uptrending Gann angle at .9930. Stops under this angle helped trigger an acceleration to the downside. Downtrending Gann angles come in at .9942 and 1.0062 today.


Here’s what to watch for today. If last night’s low at .9812 holds, then the market may retrace 50% of the break from the top at 1.0182. This makes .9997 a potential upside target. This is important because if a bearish trend is developing then the Aussie/Dollar has to make a secondary lower top. 


The shedding of risky assets is the catalyst behind the weakness. The Dollar is getting stronger as global equity markets and commodities weaken. The Australian Dollar has been the beneficiary of greater demand for commodities. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia has been hiking interest rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its easy money strategy, recent rises in U.S. Treasuries have encouraged traders to pare positions in the Aussie.


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