Tuesday November 16, 2010 - 04:00:02 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 16-Nov-2010 -0356 GMT
After early gains on the back of strong retail sales growth for Octrober, stocks gave up the gains by close. Dow closed the day with 0.08% gain at 11,202 and S&P500 clsoed down 0.12% at 1198. Dow sold-off from its former trendline support, now resistance, around 11,300, and hence is vulnerable to further erosion towards 11,000.
Asian equity markets after being in red in the early hours is now clawing back to parity. Hangseng is at 23,993 (down 0.14%), Shanghai is at 3146 (down 0.35%) and Nikkei is at 9806 (down 0.22%). Korean Central Bank has hiked rates by 25 bps to 2.5% and as a result Kospi is trading 1% down. Yesterday Nifty clsoed in the green by 0.82% at 6121, lead by rally in banking counters. Nifty faces resistance around 6150 and then at 6180-6200. Only a close above 6200 will flip the bias to bullish. Support is expected around 6100 and 6060.
Crude (84.32) is continuing to trade lower. The stronger dollar is keeping the price lower. Support is seen at 84 and if it holds we might see a bounce back once again towards 86-88 in the coming days.
Gold (1359.20) is continuing to trade lower. As mentioned earlier, while below 1380 there are chances of further dip towards 1330-20 in the coming days on a strong break below 1350. However, the broader outlook is still bullish and we might see a bounce back once again from 1330-20 region.
The Euro (1.3615) is continuing to trade lower and might see a test of 1.3530-00 Support region over today/tomorrow.
The Pound (1.6066) is trading below 1.6100. However, it is not showing much downside momentum and is expected to retain its overall uptrend. Support is seen in 1.5975-50 region.
Dollar Yen is trading at 83.07 and faces a minor resistance around 83.30 and then at 84. Support is expected around 82.90 and then at 82.60. Eur-Yen is now at 113.04 and is rangebound between 112.50-113.50.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9835) may see some more upmove towards 0.99 in the coming sessions today. Aussie (0.9865) is still holding on to its Support in the 0.9825-50 region and we need to see whether this Support is honoured or broken.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1134 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.2985. Dollar-Rupee has closed higher yesterday at 45.2250/2350 and while above 45.20, the outlook is bullish for further rise towards 45.50-60.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.28%. The 2Y yields and 10Y yields were up 3 bps and 15 bps to quote at 0.53% and 2.94% respectively.
PIMCO has reduced its treasury bond holdings to their lowest since Jul-09, emphasizing on the idea that the 30-year run in the bond market may finally be over.
Ireland said that it may take an aid from the EU to finance their banking operations.
08:30 GMT Oct UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 3.1%...Previous 3.1%
09:00 GMT EU Oct CPI (YoY)
...Expected 1.0%...Previous 1.0%
13:30 GMT US Oct Core PPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.1%
13:30 GMT US Oct Core PPI (YoY)
14:00 GMT US Sep TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected $ 100.3 Bln...Previous $ 128.7 Bln
14:15 GMT US Oct Industrial Production
...Expected 0.4%...Previous -0.2%
14:15 GMT US Oct Capacity Utilization
...Expected 74.9%...Previous 74.7
JP GDP QoQ (1st Pre)
...Actual 0.9%...Previous 0.4%
EU Trade Bal
...Actual 2.4 Bln...Actual -1.7 Bln
US Oct Retail Sales
...Actual 1.2%...Previous 0.6
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."