***Economic Data*** - (IS) Israel Q3 Advanced GDP Annualized: 3.8% v 2.5%e - (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Nov 13th: -0.1% w/w; +3.4% y/y - (CA) Canada Sept Manufacturing Sales M/M: -0.6% v -0.9%e v 2.0% prior - (US) Oct Producer Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.8%e; PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: -0.6% v +0.1%e - (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Nov 13th: +2.7% y/y; MTD: +0.1% v Oct - (BE) Belgium Aug Trade Balance: -â‚¬572.1M v â‚¬477.6M prior - (US) Sept Total Net Long-term TIC Flows: $81.7B $62.5Be; Net TIC Flows: $81.0B v $38.9B prior - (US) Oct Industrial Production: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Capacity Utilization: 74.8% v 74.9%e prior - (US) Nov NAHB Housing Market Index: 17e v 16 prior
- Investors are pulling away from risky assets on a global basis today, with a variety of factors unsettling markets. Asian equities traded off after the Bank of Korea surprised markets with a rate hike (and warned inflation continues to be a real problem); fears of more tightening in Beijing to counter inflation sent Chinese equities lower. European finance ministers are meeting in Brussels with negotiations over some sort of aid for Ireland under discussion, although there has been no official comment on the talks. Irish officials continue to deny that aid of any kind is needed in the first place, while markets continue to believe that aid for Ireland may make a package for Portugal or even Spain inevitable. European equity indices are well into the red. In the US, the October PPI data indicated that inflation in wholesale prices remains moderate, and ex food and energy actually declined in the month (thanks to lower auto prices). The dollar has pushed out to six-week highs against the euro on all the peripheral turbulence, sending high-flying commodity prices tumbling through several key retracement levels. Silver prices down 3% on the day and copper down nearly 4%. Gold is testing 10-day lows, trading around $1,344 below the uptrend line going back to this summer. Initially money flowed to US Treasury markets following yesterday's swoon but prices are backing off in mid NY-morning trade, pushing yields back up to multi-month highs. The US benchmark 10-year yield sits just below 2.95%, its highest levels since August while 2-10-year spread is above 240 basis points.
- Leading US retailers have reported third quarter results. Walmart has missed revenue targets for the second consecutive quarter, while earnings were in line with the Street's expectations. The company raised its FY10 earnings guidance and also reported international sales that were up nearly 8% y/y on an FX neutral basis. Home Depot's earnings were a bit above par, while revenue was in line. Shares of HD are up nearly 4%, while WMT is up more than 2%. Results from department stores TJX Companies, Saks and Nordstrom were right in line with expectations. TJX and JWN are in the red, while SKS is up 3% but well off its best levels. Troubled mall chain Abercrombie & Fitch beat expectations by narrow margins. ANF is down 2%.
- Differing views among the 27 EU member states were on display this morning, highlighted by remarks from the Austrian finance minister, who said Greece had not really committed itself to improving its public finances and withheld Austria's â‚¬190M portion of the December installment of Greek bailout funding. Also plaguing the region was S&P's sovereign ratings cut of EMU member Cyprus. Ireland was set to release a statement on its economic outlook after the European close. EUR/USD remained vulnerable throughout the New York session, as the pair moved closer to electing a fresh round of euro sell stops building below the Asian session lows of 1.3560. The stronger greenback weighed upon the commodity sectors and reflected by the soft tone in both AUD and CAD pairs. Spot gold is probing dangerously close to its Aug hourly uptrend line that lurked around the $1,345/oz level.
***Looking Ahead*** - (SA) South Africa Q3 BER Business Confidence: No est v 47.0 prior - 11:00 (EU) Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels - 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills and Sell $23B in 52-Week Bills - 14:30 (US) Senate Banking Committee Votes on Diamond Fed Nomination - 15:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Nominal Overnight Rate Target by 25bps to 3.00% from 2.75% current level. - 16:30 (US) Weekly API energy Inventories - (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Nov 14th: No est v -46 prior
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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