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Wednesday November 17, 2010 - 10:58:03 GMT
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European Market Update: BOE remained split in its views; EcoFin determined on action to stabilize the Euro region (TTN_

Wednesday, November 17, 2010 5:50:15 AM

 European Market Update: BOE remained split in its views; EcoFin determined on action to stabilize the Euro region

 

***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Oct PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 7.3% v 7.2% prior
- (SP) Spain Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (SW) Sweden Q3 Industry Capacity: 88.6% v 86.9% prior
- (SW) Sweden Oct Average House Prices (SEK): 1.95M v 1.90M prior
- (SA) South Africa Sept Retail Sales Constant M/M: 0.4 v 0.5%e; Y/Y:6.1% v 4.3%e
- (UK) Bank of England Minutes from Nov 4th: MPC again had a three way split on policy
- (UK) Oct Jobless Claims Change: -3.7K v +6.0Ke (first decline since July); Claimant Count Rate: 4.5% v 4.5%e
- (UK) Sept Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e
- (UK) Sept ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.7%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Construction Output M/M: -2.1% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -8.1% v -7.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (IT) Italy Sept Current Account: -€8.1 v -€5.0B prior

Fixed income
- (EU) ECB allotted $60M in 8-day USD liquidity operation at fixed 1.19%
- (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGPC) sold €750M vs €750M-1.25B range Indicated in 12-Month Bills; avg yield 4.813% v 3.260%; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.2x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **
Notes/Observations:
- Euro zone fin ministers appeared determined to take action to stabilize Euro region
- Greece confirms 'technical' delay in planned Dec tranche from the EU but IMF portion remained on track for Dec.
- China continued to signal its intentions to tame inflationary pressures; The eighth consecutive trading day of risk aversion was seen in Asia
- New GM debuts today
- Emerging Market ETF put volume at 5 month highs.
- Dealers: Sweeping Irish aid package in the works but believes the bailout would not save the Euro currency. Contagion was not the problem but rather solvency is. It concludes that Portugal, Spain and even France are potential victims
- FT: Anger at Germany boils over.
- CRB Index moves back below 300 level on continued price retreat in commodities

Equities:
EuroStoxx at 2794, +0.44%
, FTSE100 at 5679, -0.05%, CAC40 at 3779, +0.46%, DAX at 6690, +0.40%

- European shares opened lower among debt worries and rumors of a tightening of monetary policy from China. Markets rose slightly during the session but sentiment remained cautious as the much awaited EU Finance Ministers meeting produced no deal on a bail-out for Ireland. However, the ministers provided rhetorical support saying that the union stood ready to provide help when needed, eerily reminiscent of the statements made during the Greek debt tragedy in April. Irish Fin Min Lenihan, after continuously denying the need for aid, said today that European aid is 'not inevitable', despite markets' pressure on the country to ask for help. The weak rally was also supported by encouraging UK labor data as jobless claim change had declined for the first time since July. The rise of the equities was limited as markets interpreted China's expressed concerns on rising commodities prices as a signal for an interest rate hike. While banks are among the decliners, pressured by macroeconomic concerns, healthcare sector rallied, led by Glaxosmithkline [GSK.UK] whose Benlysta lupus drug was approved by the FDA. Roche [ROG.SZ] also rose after announcing cost-cutting plans, targeting cost savings of CHF2.4B, which would entail a decrease of 6% in its workforce. Company also reaffirmed its 2010 outlook. Barratt Developments [BDEV.UK], UK's biggest homebuilder in terms of volume, rose about 1.5% in the open and continues to trade in positive territory following its interim update. Company said the the average selling price had increased by 9%. However, its cancellation rate had increased and the group noted the challenging macroeconomic recovery in the UK. Northern Foods [NDFS.UK] rallied as much as 26% in London trading after announcing it would merge with Irish group Greencore Group [GNC.IR]. whose stock also rose 20% in Dublin. The transaction would create a new company, Essenta Foods, with annual sales of about £1.7B. Shareholders of each company will hold 50% of the combined group. Experian [EXPN.UK], British credit-checking company, is trading higher by 4.7% after reporting an increase in its earnings. Company expected to deliver similar rates of organic revenue growth to the first half and a modest improvement in EBIT margin.

Speakers:
- Ireland Fin Min Lenihan commented ahead of the second day of the EcoFin meeting in Brussels that the Euro zone finance ministers were determined to take action to stabilize the Euro region. He noted that talks with EU/IMF/ECB would begin on Thursday Nov 18th. There was no implied deadline for EU/IMF/ECB discussions and added that the IMF was involved on a 'technical level'. He stated that Ireland took care not to make a formal request for aid and not discussing specific amounts or costs involved but did seek stability in its banking sector. The Irish 2011 budget to be released Dec 7th, but 4-year outlook to be unveiled before end of Nov. He stressed that Ireland would not look to increase the 4-year planned budget cut from the current €15B target. Ireland's 12.5% Corp tax rate was safe and remained vital for the country's economic growth.
- Ireland PM Cowen stated that it was collaborating with its EU counterparts to deal with the financial issues. Ireland would not make any application for use of the ESFS without preparatory work
- BOE minutes from Nov 4th: The MPC Majority stated that the balance of risks had NOT changed significantly and decided it was right to keep the expansionary policy. The Majority forecasted that CPI would decline towards the 2.0% target in the medium term. However some of the majority members did see risk of higher inflationary expectations and expressed differing views in inflation risks. The MPC Majority believed that it was premature to tighten interest rates while there is significant spare capacity but added that also premature to ease without clear signs of slowdown thus reiterated that most of the members stood ready to adjust policy in either direction. On the minority views BOE member Sentance (hawk) want a 25bps rate hike stating that recent news was in favor of a tightening policy sooner rather than later. Member Posen (Dove) again voted to increase the ATP by £50B believing that BoE's forecasts underestimated the impact of fiscal tightening on consumption and budget cuts.
- Austria Fin Min Proll continued to issue remarks (and corrections) on Greece. Austria first stated that its planned Dec tranche would be delayed until Jan but later 'clarified' that the delay was referring to the Whole EU's tranche and not just its portion.
- Greece fin ministry countered noting that the planned third installment by the IMF was set for Dec remained intact and on course. It did not that the EU portion of the bailout would be voted upon in Dec and paid in Jan (confirming a 'technical" delay). Greece clarified that any such delay of tranche payments would present no cash issues
- China State Council stated that it did discuss means to stabilize prices and would intervene on prices as needed, as prices have risen too fast since July. The council did not mention monetary policy directly but the measures included increasing the supply of daily goods to the market, impose temporary controls on prices for key products.

Currencies:
- The price action appeared to pause given the recent wave of riak aversion flows fueled by China's inflation fighting efforts and euro zone periphery woes. The USD was consolidating its recent gains against the major pairs. Dealers noted that the EUR/USD appeared to be supportive in the lower part of the 1.34 handle for the time being.
- The USD/JPY pair holding around the 83.30 area with dealers specifically taking note of the rise between the US/Japanese sovereign yield spreads. Chatter that perhaps the Fed might be forced to scale back its QE program also aided the greenback.
Geopolitical/In the papers:
- The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard commented on the debt crisis in Europe may be escalating noting Austria's criticism of Greece, and the Irish refusal to accept aid. The article notes the Austrian financial minister Proll is 'critical' of Greece since it has missed tax revenue targets per the EU Memorandum agreement. Citing a BNP Paribas analysts, the €440 billion European rescue fund was never designed to be used, and that the 'sheer existence of the fund was supposed to be enough, but that has not happened. It is only a matter of time before the Spanish economy slips back into recession, and that is when the spotlight will turn to Spain'.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (PH) Philippines Oct Balance of Payments: No est v $3.1B prior
- (PO) Portugal Q3 Unemployment Rate: No est v 10.6% prior
- 6:00 (RU) Russia sells RUB vs RUB30B Indicated in OFZ Bonds
- 6:00 (PD) Poland sells total PLN vs PLN3.5B Indicated in Fixed Rate
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 12th: No est v 5.8% prior
- 8:00 (US) Fed's Rosengren Addresses Providence, R.I. Chamber of Commerce
- 8:00 (EU) EFSF's Regling Speaks in Frankfurt
- 8:00 (HU) Hungarian Central Bank's Minutes
- 8:30 (US) Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; CPI NSA: 218.854e v 218.439
-8:30 (US) Oct Housing Starts: 598Ke v 610K prior; Building Permits: 570Ke v 547K prior (revised from 539K)
- 9:15 (US) Fed's Bullard Speaks on Future of GSEs in St. Louis
- 9:20 (GE) ECB's Constancio Speaks in Frankfurt
- 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly Energy Inventories: Crude: -500Ke; Gasoline: -500Ke; Distillate:-2Me; Utilization: 82.9%e

 

 

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