European Market Update: Risk appetite finds fresh legs as Ireland hints of accepting help from IMF/EU (TTN)
Thursday, November 18, 2010
European Market Update: Risk appetite finds fresh legs as Ireland hints of accepting help from IMF/EU
***Economic Data*** - (IN) India Primary Articles WPI w/e Nov 6th Y/Y: 13.3% v 14.9% prior; Food Articles WPI Y/Y: 10.3% v 12.3% prior - (SZ) Swiss Oct Trade Balance (CHF): 2.1B v 1.4Be; Exports M/M: +6.2 v -3.1% prior; Imports M/M: +1.9% v -4.0% prior - (PH) Philippines Central Bank Interest maintained the Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 4.00% - (TT) Taiwan Q3 GDP Y/Y: 9.8%% v 8.3%e - (NV) Netherlands Oct Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 5.2%e - (NV) Netherlands Nov Consumer Confidence: -7 v -10e - (SW) Sweden Oct Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.6%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Sept Current Account: -â‚¬13.1B v -â‚¬6.9B prior; Euro-Zone Current Account Net Seasonally Adj: -â‚¬9.2B v -â‚¬10.6 B prior - (UK) Oct Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.5%e - (UK) Oct Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.0%e - (UK) Oct Public Finances (PSNCR): Â£2.4B v Â£6.0Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: Â£9.8B v Â£8.9Be; PSNB ex Interventions: Â£10.3B v Â£9.6Be - (SZ) Swiss Nov Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: -30.9 v -27.5 prior
Fixed Income: - (SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total â‚¬3.65B vs. â‚¬3.0-4.0B Indicated Range in 2020 and 2041 Bonds - Sold â‚¬2.6B in 4.85% Oct 2020 Bono; avg yield 4.615% v 4.144% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.3x prior - Sold â‚¬1.1B in 4.7% Jul 2041 Bono; avg yield 5.488% v 5.077% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 2.1x prior - (FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) sells total â‚¬7.965B in 2013, 2014 and 2015 Notes - Sells â‚¬2.47B in Jan 2013 BTANs - Sells â‚¬2.465B in July 2014 BTANS - Sells â‚¬3.036B in Jul 2015 BTAN - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sells total HUF60B in 2014, 2016 and 2020 Bonds - (UK) DMO to sell Â£3.25B in 3.75% 2020 Gilts; avg yield 3.45% v 3.055% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.77x v 2.01x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ** Notes/Observations: - Ireland: IMF, EU/ECB mission to Dublin for a few days; Central Bank Gov hints that it would accept aid - Risk appetite finds fresh legs on hope of an Irish package - OECD expresses concerns on 2011 growth as US lags in momentum - Hong Kong confirms first bird flu case in human (1st time since 2003) - GM prices at high end $33/shr and raises $20B - China Sovereign Wealth Fund (CIC) Chairman: China should stop buying US Treasuries but should still buy US assets
Equities: Eurostoxx at 2843, +1.45%, FTSE100 at 5764, +1.27%, CAC40 at 3850, +1.52%, DAX at 6792, 1.39%
- European shares were in positive territory following Asian gains and also as speculations that Ireland may accept a bailout arose. Irish central banker Honohan said that IMF could provide a loan if Ireland asked and the amount would be in tens of billions of euros. Autos were lifted after GM priced its IPO at the high end of the expected range - Air France [AF.FR] swung to profit after reporting its Q2 figures after the Paris close yesterday. Both net and earnings were higher than analysts' estimates. Company also boosted its FY10 operating profit outlook. European airliners have benefitted from a surge in demand and have reported better than expected figures. - SABMiller [SAB.UK] was up 4.8% as profit increased 15% and revenues 6% on a yearly basis. Lager volume growth had also grown by 25% on an organic basis. Company said the driver of the period's performance was growth in developing markets while global outlook was mixed as group remained cautious over US and UK recovery. - French supermarket chain Carrefour [CA.FR] also rose about 1.4% after company decided to stay in Asia following failed bids to sell its Malaysia and Singapore businesses. Company said that the emerging markets would be value-enhancing in the medium to long term. - Meanwhile, Dutch supermarket Ahold [AH.NV] fell 3.1% as the company missed expectations due to a one time charge related to the acquisition of Ukrop. Revenue was in line with estimates and company said it expected Ukrop to return to profitability by the end of the next year.
Speakers: - Ireland Central Bank gov Hohohan commented that the IMF would provide aid in the form of a loan if Ireland agreed upon the conditions. He noted that the objective of current IMF/EU official visit was to provide assurances to both investors and depositors of country's banking sector. He stated that any potential loan would be 'large' and seen in the range of 'tens of billion of euros'. Such a loan would be made available and drawn upon as necessary. He commented that the corporate deposit outflows have been replaced by ECB funding and noted that the interest rate of EFSF was expected to be in line with typical IMF's rate. - South Korea Fin Min Yoon stated in a press conference that the Gov't would support the removal of withholding tax exemption on foreign bond purchases and would help the related bills pass parliament as soon as possible. - Russia Central Bank Ulyukayev commented that the country's Q4 capital outflows might total $7B. He confirmed that the CBR had adjusted the Ruble currency (RUB) floating trading band by 5 Kopecks in the last few days and the Central bank had been surprised by the weakness in the Ruble currency - Philippines Central Bank commented after its rate decision that its forecasts for inflation was lowered as a result of the strength in the peso, yet the Peso currency (PHP) remained competitive against other currencies. The central bank noted that inflation was manageable and on path to meet 2010-2012 targets. - OECD released its Nov Economic Outlook and noted that the global recovery was slowing as US economy lagged in growth. Thus central banks could delay monetary tightening until H2 of 2012. It cuts its 2011 GDP forecast to 4.2% from prior view of 4.5%, It did maintain the 2010 global GDP growth at 4.6. - Sees 2011 global GDP growth at 4.2% v prior forecast of 4.5% - The Japanese Gov't released its monthly Cabinet report which maintained its assessment that the Japanese economy had entered a 'lull' period. The Gov't cuts its views on several of the components including personal consumption, production and imports. However it raised its view on employment as it believed the job market was showing signs of a rebound. - Japan Econ Min Kaieda commented that he could not determine whether the recent JPY currency weakness was sufficient. But gains in Japanese equities have been aid by positive corporate data and the recent pause in yen appreciation trend
Currencies: - While the EcoFin ended on Wed without a deal to solve the lingering peripheral situation in Europe the market continued to believe that Ireland would accept the terms to stabilize the markets. Comments from the Irish Central bank highlighted that perhaps Ireland was set to accept a 'bailout' from the IMF and this aided risk appetite. The EUR/USD continued to rebound from its 7-week lows established earlier this week and tested above 1.3650 in the session. The submission of risk aversion had breathed some life back into stock and commodity markets as a result. The peripheral spreads narrowed in the morning as Ireland seems prepared to accept aid. The Irish/German 10-year gov't bond spread narrowed by over 10bps to around 540bps. There was talk that Spanish two-tranche auction was going 'well' and also allayed fears of contagion for the time being. Geopolitical/In the papers: - Following yesterday's comments made by German Interior Minister De Maiziere, there were unconfirmed reports of a suspected bomb package headed for Germany, which was detected in Namibia. Note yesterday the Interior Minister warned of possible terror attack to Germany sometime towards the end of November. His comments were addressed after various tips and the interception of a postal bomb sent from Yemen. - The Telegraph reported recent data released from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The data indicated a $222 billion exposure to Ireland, the highest figure, by British banks. The second and third largest exposure is Germany ($205.8B) and the US ($113.9B), respectively. The total foreign exposure stands at $843.8 billion. The Royal Bank of Scotland alone has an exposure of more than $79 billion.
***Looking Ahead *** - (RU) Russia Oct Real Industrial Production M/M: 2.2%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 6.2% prior - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Nov 12th: No est v $499.2B prior - (IS) Israel Oct Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.0% prior - (PO) Portugal Oct Producer Prices M/M: No est v - 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior - (AR) Argentina Nov Consumer Confidence: No est v 50.05 prior - 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to Sell CZK5.0B in 273-Day Bills - 6:00 (UK) Nov CBI Trends Total Orders: -24e v -28 prior - 6:30 (CL) Chile Q3 Gross Domestic Product Y/Y: 7.1%e v 6.5% prior; Current Account: -$120M v $46.8M prior - 6:30 (GE) ECB's Mersch Speaks in Frankfurt - 7:15 IMF Fiscal Analyst Cottarelli Speaks at Brussels Think Tank - 8:00 (SA) South Africa Gov News Conference on South African Interest Rates - 8:00 (PD) Poland Oct Employment M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.8% prior - 8:00 (PD) Oct Avg Gross Wages M/M: 1.3%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 3.7% prior - 8:30 (CA) Oct Leading Indicators M/M: +0.1%e v -0.1% prior - 8:30 (CA) Sept Int'l Securities Transactions: C$7.0Be v C$11.1B prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Sept Wholesale Sales M/M: -0.3%e v 1.2% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 441Ke v 435K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.295Me v 4.301M prior - 8:30 (GE) ECB's Trichet, Gonzalez-Paramo, Bini Smaghi Speak in Frankfurt - 10:00 (US) Oct Leading Indicators: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior - 10:00 (US) Nov Philadelphia Fed: 5.0e v 1.0 prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA natural Gas Inventories - 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Publishes Its Quarterly Review - 13:00 (US) Fed's Warsh Speaks on Panel in Chicago - 13:30 (EU) EU's President Van Rompuy, Barnier Speak at Conference on Euro - 13:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in - 14:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Tax Collections (BRL): 74.2B v 63.4B prior - 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior - 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 12.7% prior - 16:00 (US) Sept RPX Composite 28dy Y/Y: No est v -2.68% prior; RPX Composite 28dy Index: No est v 195.01 prior - 16:30 (US) Fed's Plosser Speaks at Cato Institute in Washington - On Friday: - (GE) Fed's Bernanke, ECB's Trichet, PboC Zhou and IMF's Strauss-Kahn Speak on Panel - (PO) EU Leaders meet President Obama in Lisbon, Portugal (NATO Summit)
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.