***Economic Data*** - (UK) Nov CBI Trends Total Orders: -15 v -24e - (PO) Portugal Oct Producer Prices M/M: -0.2% v - 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.4% prior - (CL) Chile Q3 Gross Domestic Product Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.1%e v 6.5% prior; Current Account: -$416.4M v -$120M - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Nov 12th: $495.7B v $499.2B prior - (PD) Poland Oct Employment M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e - (PD) Oct Avg Gross Wages M/M: 1.1% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.0%e - (CA) Canada Oct Leading Indicators M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e - (CA) Canada Sept Int'l Securities Transactions: C$12.3B v C$7.0Be - (CA) Canada Sept Wholesale Sales M/M: +0.4% v -0.3%e - (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 439K v 441Ke; Continuing Claims: 4.295M v 4.295Me - (US) Q3 Mortgage Delinquencies: 9.13% v 9.85% prior; MBA Mortgage Foreclosures: 4.39% v 4.57% prior - (US) Oct Leading Indicators: 0.5% v 0.5%e - (US) Nov Philadelphia Fed: 22.5 v 5.0e - (US) Weekly EIA natural Gas Inventories: +3B bcf v +5 to +10 bcf Estimated Range
- Risk assets are roaring this morning as European debt fears subside (for the moment), GM's IPO launches and US economic data surprises to the upside. Although there has been no official confirmation as of yet, officials have implied that Ireland will eventually agree to a substantial loan package sized in the tens of billions of euros. In the US, initial jobless claims rose slightly, although they remain near two-year lows. The Philly Fed Index was much, much higher than expected, with impressive trends seen in the new orders and employment sub-indices. Bond prices are retreating with the push into equities, with the yield on the 10-year treasury note up to 2.94% from 2.87% yesterday. Commodity prices are also rebounding as the dollar backs off some of its recent highs.
- General Motors launched its IPO on the NYSE to much fanfare this morning. Shares opened for trade at $35/shr, two dollars above its pricing yesterday at $33/shr. Shares of GM had nearly broken $36 in the first few minutes of trading, before heading below the opening price. Last year's government rescue of GM left the Treasury with a 61% stake; after the IPO and some gradual selling of preferred shares, the government's stake could drop to 33%.
- Major retailers continue to release third quarter results. Office supply giant Staples offered a lackluster, thoroughly in line report. SPLS is up 2.5%. Sears is getting crushed after reporting an unexpectedly large quarterly loss and missing revenue targets. Echoing other retailers, Sears said warm weather held down apparel sales, while appliance sales remain very soft. Shares of SHLD are down 4.5%. Discount retailers Ross Stores and Dollar Tree had relatively strong results as consumers continue to be cost sensitive. Apparel and mall chain names are surging in early trade. Limited Brands and American Eagle Outfitters are both up around 8%. The former had impressive 10% comps growth and declared a big special dividend, while the latter offered strong sales growth and said promotional sales were on the decline. Shoe seller Buckle is up 10% after beating estimates and launching a sizable special dividend. Children's Place is up nearly 6% despite soft revenue and negative comps.
- The dollar continued to soften up overnight on hopes that Ireland would agree to an IMF loan package. But the greenback came off its worst levels as investors questioned whether the Irish deal would address solvency issues that threaten contagion risk rather than simply liquidity. An IMF official confirmed that it would begin its mission in Ireland on Nov 19th with about a dozen members (including banking sector experts). EUR/USD entered the mid-NY morning at 1.3600, about 50 pips higher from the start of the Asian session. The dollar received an added boost after the Nov Philly Fed and leading indicators showed positive growth. A constructive Q3 MBA mortgage delinquency reading also aided its bump off session lows. USD/JPY drifting into the mid-83 handle.
***Looking Ahead*** - (IS) Israel Oct Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.0% prior - (AR) Argentina Nov Consumer Confidence: No est v 50.05 prior - 13:00 (US) Fed's Warsh Speaks on Panel in Chicago - 13:30 (EU) EU's President Van Rompuy, Barnier Speak at Conference on Euro - 13:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in - 14:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Tax Collections (BRL): 74.2B v 63.4B prior - 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior - 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 12.7% prior - 16:00 (US) Sept RPX Composite 28dy Y/Y: No est v -2.68% prior; RPX Composite 28dy Index: No est v 195.01 prior - 16:30 (US) Fed's Plosser Speaks at Cato Institute in Washington
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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