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Thursday November 18, 2010 - 19:14:06 GMT
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Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

Morning Report Friday 19 November 2010

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Sentiment improved across risky asset classes last night. Contributing events included a strong US business survey (Philadelphia Fed), a large IPO for General Motors, and developments in Ireland's fiscal story. ECB member and Irish central bank head Honohan said he expected Ireland to tap an EU/IMF loan worth tens of billions at an interest rate of around 5%. Most equity markets rose, the S&P500 up 2.1% currently, the Eurostoxx closing +1.9%, and Shanghai +0.9%. Most commodities recorded decent gains, the CRB +2.3%, oil +2.2%, copper 2.8%, silver 4.2%, and sugar 7.3%. US treasury yields rose, the 10yr up 5bp to 2.96% major resistance. Peripheral Eurozone government bonds outperformed the core, the Irish 10yr -13bp compared to the German equivalent.

The US dollar weakened against all majors except the defensive yen, USD/JPY rising from 83.10 to 83.80. There was also a report saying the BoJ was considering increasing capital to prepare for asset purchases. EUR rose to 1.3668 in Europe and then settled into a range above 1.3585. GBP rose from 1.5900 to 1.6050, UK data releases supportive.

Outperformer AUD rose further from the 0.9850 Sydney close to 0.9906 in NY.

NZD tracked the AUD in almost identical fashion, rising from 0.7740 to 0.7783. AUD/NZD consequently remained stuck around 1.2720.

US Philly Fed jumps from 1.0 to 22.5 in Nov.  This matches the Philly fed's previous peak of 22.5 in Dec last year, and is the equal highest reading since early 2005. The Nov detail was supportive too, with orders up 15 pts, shipments up 15 pts and jobs improving 11 pts. This strong report contrasts starkly with the neighbouring NY Fed index which fell 27 pts to -11.1 in Nov, its weakest reading for 18 months. Who to believe? The NY index tends to be more extreme in its volatility; but a similar 23 pts spike in the Philly Fed index in September 2008 was subsequently followed by a 40 pts slump in October 2008.

US initial jobless claims up 2k to 439k. This is the November payrolls survey week, but it also included the Veterans' Day holiday. Still, the 4 week moving average for claims dipped to 443k, which is the lowest for more than two years.

US leading index up 0.5% in Oct. This followed an upwardly revised 0.5% in Sep, and suggests some economic momentum is building again.

US mortgage defaults and foreclosures in Q3. The MBA data showed 9.1% of mortgages in delinquency (down from 10.1% peak in Q1) and 4.4% in foreclosure (down from 4.6%). The prime/subprime split was 6%/26% for defaults and 3%/14% for foreclosures.

Euroland current account deficit EUR13.1bn in Sep, the largest since January last year.

UK retail sales volumes up 0.5% in Oct. This followed back to back retail declines in the last two months of Q3. Q4 may benefit from some pull-forward of sales to beat the January VAT hike. Meanwhile, the CBI's November industrial trends survey showed new orders improving from -28 to -15, the best in three months, on an improved export picture. Finally, budget figures showed a cumulative GBP82bn net borrowing as at Oct, on track for the full-year FY10/11 GBP149bn plan.

Canadian leading index up 0.2% in Oct. This followed a 0.2% fall in Sep, which was the first decline since April last year. Other Canadian data included a 0.4% rise in wholesale sales, led by autos.


AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:  The event calendar is sparse today, so sentiment and positioning should be the dominant influences. Minor boundaries for the AUD today are 0.9835 and 0.9900, the latter more likely to be challenged. NZD is similarly biased and bounded by 0.7720 and 0.7780.


.Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 19 November 2010. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.




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