***Economic Data*** - (PD) Poland Oct Core Inflation M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e - (US) Oct Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.28 v -0.24e - (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Advanced Consumer Confidence: -10 v -11e - (MX) Mexico Sept Global Economic Indicator: 5.0% v 5.3%e - (MX) Mexico Q3 GDP: 5.3% v 5.7%e - (IS) Israel Central Bank Interest Rate maintained the Base Rate unchanged at 2.00%; as expected
- All eyes are on Ireland this morning, where the government has agreed to an EU/IMF bailout after a weekend's worth of persuasion by its European partners. The final details of the bailout package will be worked out over the coming days, and the total figure looks to be as high as â‚¬100B, with up to â‚¬40B going to backstop Ireland's troubled banks. The situation in Dublin remains fluid, with the governing coalition apparently breaking apart under the pressure and early elections looking to be a strong possibility. All three leading US equity indices are in the red in mid morning trading; the Nasdaq momentarily made it into the black on Novell-related flows, however traders are having trouble looking past Europe's problems. Note that European indices are at their lows deep in negative territory, with the initial gains seen after the announcement of the Irish bailout long gone. Gold has not gained on the Ireland news, and remains more or less where it was late last week, trading around $1,354. Crude is on its lows, down more than a buck at around $81.50.
- Today's merger Monday has been less exuberant than in recent weeks, although two interesting deals have been announced. A consortium of private equity firms struck a deal to buy software developer Novell for $6.10/shr in cash, in a deal valued at $2.2B. Acquiring firm Attachmate, a provider of technology services, is owned by an investment group led by Francisco Partners, Golden Gate Capital and Thoma Bravo. German potash name K+S said it would acquire small Canadian potash firm Potash One for C$4.50/shr, in a deal valued at C$434M.
- In other equity news, Regeneron Pharma is up more than 10% after Phase III trials of its treatment for a leading cause of blindness in the elderly was as effective and safe as Roche's blockbuster Lucentis, with half the number of eye injections. Tyson Foods is up more than 4% despite rather lackluster Q4 results; earnings were merely in line, while revenue missed expectations. Note that the food company offered very positive commentary on its prospects for 2011. Shares of Netflix are up 11.4% after the firms launched a streaming video-only subscription for the first time, minus the usual DVD-through-the-mail component. Green Mountain Coffee said that it would restate certain financial results from the 2007-10 period after uncovering some errors. Investors are buying on the news, especially after an upgrade at a major investment bank, and GMCR is up more than 11%.
- With the focus in Ireland now on details of the rescue package, risk aversion is being driven by comments out of the Irish political world that investors fear could complicate the actual bailout. Note that risk fears have picked right up after an MP from the governing coalition's Green party commented that he 'felt misled' by his governing partners and called for general elections in late January. EUR/USD dipped over 100 pips from its Asia open to retest the Friday intra-day low of 1.3609 before consolidating. The peripheral spreads reversed their earlier narrowing bias to trade wider during the New York session. The Irish 5-year CDS widened by 25bps at 530bps compared to 480bps earlier today. Portugal's 5-year CDS moved to 460bps from 420bps registered earlier today
***Looking Ahead*** - 11:00 (EU) ECB's Trichet participates in European Parliament Debate - 11:00 (US) Fed's outright coupon purchase - 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 3-Month Bills; $28B in 6-Month Bills - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $ 35B in 2-Year Notes
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