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Wednesday April 20, 2005 - 11:55:54 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts - Evening - 20/04/05.......1134 GMT

Euro @ 1.3042/6....Resistance at 1.3087
------------------------------------------
R: 1.3059 / 1.3087-93 / 1.3130
S: 1.3032-28 / 1.2980-71 / 1.2957-38
The upmove of the last 3-4 days seems to be coming in for profit-taking at least, if not a correction/ reversal. The Support at 1.3045 mentioned in the morning has been broken once and is under pressure right now. Immediate Support to watch now is 1.3028. If that also is broken, then we could see a decent fall towards 1.3013.

The pressure could be on the downside while the Euro now remains below 1.3087. In case the Euro rises past that, however, further gains towards 1.3120-30 may be seen.


$-Yen @ 106.82/86....Holding Long
----------------------------------
R: 107.05 / 107.24-49 / 107.65-82
S: 106.76 / 106.37-25 / 105.87
The market has found Support at the 200-day MA at 106.73. The question is, is this Support temporary, or will it hold and push the Dollar up towards 107.20-30? In case the Support breaks, Dollar bullishness would become doubtful. If it holds and a move up to 107.20-30 happens, confidence in the Dollar might still be justified.

Holding:
$25K Long at 106.90, SL 106.58 (up from 106.50), TP 107.35


Euro-Yen @ 139.33/8....Vulnerable to a fall
--------------------------------------------
R: 139.69 / 140.14-30 / 140.81-94
S: 139.38-26 / 139.17-138.96 / 138.41
The Cross has not risen to 140 today and looks vulnerable to a dip towards 139.05 while it stays below 139.60 now. In case of a dip to 139.05, there could be a case for a further drop towards 138.70 by tomorrow. While this would be good for a EUR-USD bearish view, we hope it will not spill over into a USD-JPY downmove.

On the upside, a rise past 139.85 would be needed to suggest a test of the 140.00-20 Resistance region.


$-Swiss @ 1.1834/9....Support at 1.1790-70
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.1850-61 / 1.1917 / 1.1946-66
S: 1.1793-70 / 1.1732 / 1.1692
As it turns out, the 1.1790-70 Support has held and there has been a rise to 1.1855. There is some chance, therefore, that the market could be ranged between 1.18-1.22, as suggested in the morning. For this to be true, of course, the 1.1790-70 Support has to be able to withstand a second test of strength.

In case the 1.1770 Support breaks, look for an eventual fall towards 1.1600.


Cable @ 1.9137/42.....Resistance at 1.9210
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.9177 / 1.9201 / 1.9251
S: 1.9103-1.9088 / 1.9059 / 1.9017
As it turns out, the Cable has not risen past 1.9210 and has fallen instead, suggesting our Triangle thesis may be worth looking at. Immediate Resistance at 1.9178 now. While below, there are chances of a further dip towards 1.9100 initially and then 1.9070 and maybe lower still.

Holding:
GBP 15K Short at 1.9124, SL 1.9188 (up from 1.9174), TP 1.9070

Order:
Sell GBP 15K at 1.9169, SL 1.9224, TP 1.9070


Happy Trading!

 

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