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Tuesday November 23, 2010 - 10:57:42 GMT
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European Market Update: Political storms brewing on multiple fronts adds new element to risk aversion (TTN)

Tuesday, November 23, 2010 5:50:16 AM

 European Market Update: Political storms brewing on multiple fronts adds new element to risk aversion


***Economic Data***
- (GE) Germany Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.7%e;Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.9%e;
GDP WDA Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.9%e
- (GE) Germany Q3: Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.4%; Government Spending: 1.1% v 0.4%e; Domestic Demand: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Imports:1.9% v 2.6%e; Exports: 2.3% v 3.4%e
- (GE) Germany Q3 Construction Investment: -0.4% v -0.5%e; Capital Investment: 1.3% v 1.7%e
- (FI) Finland Oct Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.0% prior
- (FR) France Nov Business Confidence: 100 v 102e; Production Outlook: 8 v 10e; Own-Company Production Outlook: 11 v 15e
- (FR) France Nov Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 57.5 v 55.0e; PMI Services: 55.7 v 54.8e
- (TT) Taiwan Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: 14.4% v 13.1%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: 7.9% v 6.3%e
- (TU) Turkey Oct Consumer Confidence: 89.0 v 90.4 prior
- (IT) Italy Nov Consumer Confidence:108.5 v 107.4e
- (GE) Germany Nov Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 58.9 v 56.8e; PMI Services: 58.6 v 55.8e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 55.5v 54.4e; PMI Services: 55.2v 53.2e; PMI Composite: 55.4 v 53.6e prior
- (NO) Norway Q3 GDP Q/Q: -1.6% v 0.5%e; Mainland GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (UK) Oct BBA Loans for House Purchase: 30.8K v 31.0Ke
- (SA) South Africa Q3
GDP Annualized: 2.6% v 3.3%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.5%e
- (SP) Spain Sept Trade Balance: -€4.4B v -€4.5B prior
- (SA) South Africa Q4 BER Business Confidence: 44.0 v 47 prior

Fixed Income:
- (SA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B in 2021 and 2031 Bonds vs. ZAR2.1B Targeted
- (SP) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold approx €3.3B vs. €4-5B Indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold €2.09B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.743% v 0.951% prior; Bid-to-Cover: 2.3x v 2.77x prior
- Sold €1.16B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield 2.111% v 1.285% prior; Bid-to-Cover: 2.6x v 2.08x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted €17.1B in its 7-Day Main Refi Tender at a fixed 1.0%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sold
HUF40B in 3-Month Bills; avg yield 5.28% v 5.26% prior
- (UK) DMO sells £600M in 1.25% Index-Linked 2027 Gilts; Real Yield 0.783% v 0.672% prior; Bid-to-Cover:2.31 x v 2.23x prior

- Korean Peninsula heats up as both side exchange artillery
- Greece meets conditions for third tranche of €10B


- EuroStoxx50 at 2785, -0.92%, FTSE100 at 5641 at -0.70%, CAC40 at 3784, -0.89%, DAX at 6801, -0.32%

- European shares fell during the session on concerns over Irish bailout and escalating tension between North and South Korea as North Korea fired dozens of artillery shells at South Korea. Markets optimism which rallied equities yesterday faded as the amount of debt is unknown yet and the investor doubt the irish government will survive long enough to implement a budget of spending cuts which the PM will declare on December 7th. The opposition had called for a dissolution of the parliament and earlier elections. Uncertainties have spread to the rest of the PIIGS nations with
Portugal being the most vulnerable as markets fear that the Irish bailout will not appease its situation, despite desperate reiterations by Portuguese and EU officials that this country is different. Meanwhile, the Korean peninsula conflict dragged stocks and the financial sector even lower, as South Korea placed country on highest level of non-wartime alert.
- Mitchells and
Butlers [MAB.UK] lost almost 5% in London trading, the most in 6 months as company swung to a loss from last year's profit and declared it would not pay dividend. Company said it was unable to determine whether the dividend would be resumed next year. Swiss pharmaceutical name Sonova Holdings [SOON.SZ] fell about 7% after recalling its HiRes 90k cochlear implant devices following two instances where the product experienced a rare malfunction. Company said it was unable to determine at the moment the impact on sales and operating income.

- The
Korean Peninsula exchanged artillery barrages over the Yeonpyeong island that lies just 10K from the North Korean shores. There were reports of casualties of both civilian and military personnel on the South Korean residences on the island. South Korea placed itself on the highest level of non-military alert while its central bank met in an emergency meeting to assess the market implications. North Korea vowed further strikes if the South continued to violate is costal borders and blamed the first strike was caused by the South Korean side.
- Ireland Central Bank Gov Honohan commented that bank capital ratios were the primary focus of discussions with EU/IMF officials in the bailout talks. He added that Irish banks needed higher capital ratios but any banking sector and economic plan would take some time to complete
- The IMF/EU/ECB finished its 8-day inspection of
Greece and approved the third tranche payment of €10B with conditions. The delegation stated that Greece must take further measures to meet objectives and seek ways to increase tax collections. The delegation did note that overall Greece was "broadly on track" in achieving its 2011 deficit to GDP target of 7.5% but must speed up structural reforms in next year. It did expect an economic recovery to begin next year with recession to hit bottom in the second half of 2011. Also the delegation stated that the current loan agreement could be extended with a new loan facility an option. Lastly it noted that it was too soon for Greece to re-enter bond market before end of next year.
- German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that the current Irish banking crisis showed that vulnerability of the Euro currency.
Germany would continue with its planned austerity measures.

- The exchange of artillery on the
Korean Peninsula provided another catalyst for risk aversion on top of the political damage in Ireland and the overall peripheral situation in Europe. Dealers had noted that the burgeoning sense of a contagion crisis in the euro zone kept the EUR/USD below the Friday pivot point of 1.3609. The pair was off its worst level of 1.3527 aided by better European PMI readings. German Fin Min noted that the current peripheral situation puts pressure on the Euro currency. He noted that his country was not swimming in money but piling up debt. Thus he pledged that Germany would continue with its planned austerity measures. The EUR/USD was hovering just below 1.36 heading into the NY morning. Spot gold climbed towards $1,270/oz in late Asia but was softer by over $2 and nearing $1,361 in mid- European morning.
- The USD/JPY approached the 84 neighborhood on the initial word of the exchange of artillery on the
Korean Peninsula as the JPY weakened due to its proximity of any potential escalation in hostility in the region. The market tensions simmered down a bit as dealers reminded themselves that the latest events were more like a 'storm in a tea cup' as skirmishes has broke out numerous times since 1953. USD/JPY at 83.37 as the NY morning approached.
- The peripheral spreads continued to widen in the session.
Spain's 3-month and 6-month auction sold less than indicated at much higher yield compared to its Oct 26th auction of similar maturities. Geopolitical/In the papers:
- After the press conference by the opposition Green party, where it was announced that it could not continue to participate in government once the aid and budget is complete, prime minister Cowen said the current government should stay in place, and complete discussion on its bailout. He then affirmed that the 2011 budget plan will be completed by Wednesday. In terms of electing a new government, he did note that the elections can take place next year when the budget processes are finished.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (PD) Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Base Rate unchanged at 3.50%

- 7:00 (GE) Germany Dec GfK Consumer Confidence: 5.1e v 4.9 prior
- 7:00 (EU) ECB to drain €66B in 7-day Term Deposit tender
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.9% prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Oct CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.5% prior
- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Current Account: -$4.0Be v -$3.9B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $5.0Be v $5.4B prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Weekly Chain Store Sales
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q Annualized: 2.4%e v 2.0% Advanced; Personal Consumption: 2.5%e v 2.6% advanced
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP Price Index: 2.3%e v 2.3% advanced; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.8%e v 0.8% advanced
- 8:55 (US) Redbook weekly Chain Store Sales
- 9:00 (EU) EU's Barroso Takes Part in Parliament Question Time
- 9:30 (EU) ECB Calls for Bids in 3-Month Tender
- 10:00 (EU) EU's Barroso Presents 2011 Work Program to
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Retail Sales: 4.6%e v 4.4% prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Existing Home Sales: 4.48Me v 4.53M prior; Existing Home Sales M/M: -1.1%e v 10.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 6e v 5 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $1.0-2.0B in TIPS
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Tax Collections (BRL) 73.9Be v 63.4B prior
- 11:30 (UK) Bank of England's Posen speaks in Sweden
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 14:00 (US) Fed Releases Minutes from Nov. 2-3 FOMC Meeting
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Trade Balance: $945Me v $1.1B prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 Unemployment Rate: 7.8%e v 7.9% prior
- 14:30 (US) API weekly energy inventories
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Nov 21st: No est v -47 prior


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