***Economic Data*** - (PD) Poland Central Bank Interest maintained the Base Rate at 3.50%; as Expected - (GE) Germany Dec GfK Consumer Confidence: 5.5v 5.1e; Highest reading since Oct 2007 - (CA) Canada Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.2%e - (CA) Canada Oct CPI Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.5%e - (BR) Brazil Oct Current Account: -$ v -$4.0Be; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $ v $5.0Be v $5.4B prior - (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Nov 20th: -0.6% w/w; +2.8% y/y - (CA) Canada Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e - (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q Annualized: 2.5% v 2.4%e; Personal Consumption: 2.8% v 2.5%e - (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP Price Index: 2.3% v 2.3%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8%e - (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Nov 20th: +2.6% y/y; MTD: 0.0% v Oct - (MX) Mexico Sept Retail Sales: 4.1% v 4.6%e - (US) Oct Existing Home Sales: 4.43M v 4.48Me; Existing Home Sales M/M: -2.2% v -1.1%e - (US) Nov Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 9 v 6e
- Equity indices in the US and Europe are headed for fresh session lows this morning as North Korean artillery fire joins the Irish debt bomb in demolishing investor confidence. The iShares South Korea ETF is down more than 5% in US trading after North Korea shelled a South Korean island, killing two and injuring many more. Leading global powers have condemned the attack, with the notable exception of China. The Irish government and opposition parties are heading for a parliamentary showdown, with the former insisting it can remain in place and the latter threatening no confidence votes. Contagion from Ireland is spreading in Europe: spreads between 10-year Spanish and German government debt widened out to all-time highs above 230 bps while spreads between 10-year Portuguese and German paper tested all-time highs over 430. The euro is weakening rapidly, with EUR/USD dropping below1.3400 for the first time in nearly 2 months. The second reading of the Q3 GDP data has been somewhat lost in the shuffle, with headline annualized q/q GDP figure at +2.5% versus the +2.0% q/q figure seen in the first reading back at the end of October. The October existing home sales fell over September levels, although the NAR explained that temporary foreclosure stoppages likely held back sales. Gold has pushed out to one-week highs, to trade above $1,364. Front-month WTI crude tested two-month lows just above $80 earlier this morning, before regaining some ground. January crudes is currently trading around $80.80. US Treasury yields continue to retreat, aided by safe haven flows. The benchmark US 10-year is below 2.75% heading towards the FOMC minutes release and the 5-year auction results scheduled for this afternoon.
- Shares of Hewlett-Packard are up marginally after the computer giant topped profit and revenue expectations in its Q4 report as well as it Q1 and FY11 guidance. On the conference call, executives said the company is only seeing consumer weakness at the low end of the notebook market, although demand has been uneven. Brocade is down around 6% after missing targets in its Q1 guidance. The firm's Q4 performance was in line with Street analysts. Nuance spiked as much as 10% in the wake of yesterday's thoroughly unremarkable Q4 earnings report. Apparently Apple co-founder Wozniak misspoke during an online interview, stating that "Apple recently bought the company Nuance" (when he really meant a separate company that made use of Nuance voice recognition technology). NUAN is still up more than 5%. In the healthcare sector, medical device giant Medtronic was right in line with expectations. Campbell Soup is down slightly after a slightly soft Q1 earnings report.
- Comments from German officials continued to weigh on euro sentiment. German Chancellor Merkel echoed her finance minister by insisting that the euro was in an 'exceptionally serious' situation due to the peripheral debt crisis. She added that Germany must stay the course in regards to its budget austerity to ensure sustainable growth. Persistent rumors that Portugal's sovereign rating would be cut were fueled by a Moody's analyst, who said he was concerned about the country's deficit. EUR/USD hit fresh seven-week lows below 1.3435 with EUR/JPY cross retesting its Nov low around 111.00.
***Looking Ahead*** - 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $1.0-2.0B in TIPS - 11:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Tax Collections (BRL) 73.9Be v 63.4B prior - 11:30 (UK) Bank of England's Posen speaks in Sweden - 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes - 14:00 (US) Fed Releases Minutes from Nov. 2-3 FOMC Meeting - 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Trade Balance: $945Me v $1.1B prior - 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 Unemployment Rate: 7.8%e v 7.9% prior - 14:30 (US) API weekly energy inventories - 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Nov 21st: No est v -47 prior
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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