User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday November 24, 2010 - 16:55:47 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

The Post-FOMC Minutes, Pre-Turkey Day, Data Dump

Here’s the data dump:

·         Weekly jobless claims have fallen to a level not seen since July 2008. That’s good.

·         Durable goods orders fell by -3.3% versus expectations for no change. That’s bad.

·         The year-over-year PCE price index a tad lower than expectations; core PCE price index at record low. Where’s the inflation?

·         Consumer spending a tad higher than expectations: +0.3% versus +0.2%. That’s decent.

·         US personal saving rate a tad higher than expectations, up +0.1% from September to October. That’s decent.

·         US personal income rose by 0.5%. That’s good.

So we have positive news for the consumer with not-so-good news for economic activity. The kneejerk reaction to all of this is so far positive for stocks. A short-term chart of the S&P 500 futures shows prices spiking to test the underside of the 72-hour moving average (center line). If the reaction rally fades here, we would expect the S&P heads back towards the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands: 

[Chart not available in text format]

This move in stocks created a similar risk-appetite reaction in the currencies – the US dollar falling back rather sharply towards hourly support. Looking at the 72-hour moving average and Bollinger bands, the US dollar index has some room to the downside if it gets through near-term support:

[Chart not available in text format]

Now let’s broaden our scope, and see where all this data can be pieced in ...

There’s a computer generated cartoon parody being passed around about the Federal Reserve and the quantitative easing. It basically serves to bash QE2 and the Federal Reserve and all the disingenuous connections between Fed policy decisions and Goldman Sachs. But the dialogue worth noting today, which admittedly is an exaggeration, comes when the question is asked: “Has the Fed ever done anything right?” The answer: “No. Never.”

Surely they have done some things right, even if those things go unnoticed as their errors become heavily publicized. Which brings me to something in the FOMC minutes yesterday, specifically the committee’s discussion on what other measures (besides QE2) it could take to do whatever it is they say they want to do by implementing QE2.

First, here are two ideas we’ve discussed here and there over the last couple quarters:

1) The markets have returned to order in large part thanks to policymakers’ heavy-handed approach and shoring up investor sentiment. It’s been very frequently argued that all stimulus and bailout efforts have been, conspicuously or inconspicuously, aimed at the banks and too-big-too-fail institutions ... rather than Main Street. The result has been a tangible recovery in the markets, with a much more shaky recovery in the real economy.

2) The Federal Reserve is losing its credibility. This idea was also mentioned in that video parody. But the real pressure began way back with introduction of the House of Representatives bill to audit the Fed, led by Congressman Ron Paul. The Federal Reserve’s role and decisions, all the more important in tough economic times, have fallen under severe scrutiny, seemingly for good reason.

So ... in looking at the minutes yesterday, it was surprising to see that “having Chairman Ben Bernanke hold periodic news briefings,” according to Reuters, would be something the Fed would think of as a way to reverse high unemployment and incite a pickup in economic activity. It seems it would be a mere supplement to the ongoing perceptions management campaign that policy-makers maintain.

Then again, it could be looked at from a “transparency” angle and welcomed in that regard. But it simply shows how much the Fed believes bolstering sentiment will support the markets and, in turn, encourage economic activity -- a tall task, indeed, considering the public perception of the Fed at this moment in time.

Even still, what would periodic news briefings do to the spin cycle that today’s constant flow of news has become for the markets? Agitate it a little more, maybe. With all the scrutiny of the Fed, the public understands and respects the magnitude of its every move, and the Chairman’s every word, perhaps even more warranted.

Which brings us to the growth forecasts scattered throughout the FOMC minutes ...

As might have been expected, their outlook is not pretty. Their growth forecasts have been revised lower; their expectations for unemployment have become less optimistic. The Fed forecasts, however, are rosier than those of private economists as this chart shows:

[Chart not available in text format]

Basically, it leaves open the two scenarios as discussed in yesterday’s writing: 1) US dollar catches a risk bid as lower US economic forecasts add to other global economic risks coming to a head, or 2) US dollar resumes a steady decline as the US is seen as the growth laggard among major economies.

It’s a whirlwind of US data shaking up prices right now, but the way prices have unfolded this week up until now we tend to gravitate to the former scenario as that which will influence markets most, at least through year end. If this data-driven risk-appetite move is reversed before the day is over, it would lend some support to the risk-bid scenario. We were busy with issuing new trading alerts this morning, following yesterday very nice, very quick, gains in the euro and Australian dollar. Please reference the chart updates for details on these new positions.

 

John Ross Crooks III

Black Swan Capital LLC

www.blackswantrading.com

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 15 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105