Wednesday November 24, 2010 - 19:36:34 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)
Morning Report Thursday 25 November 2010
News and views
There was enough from strong US and German economic data to offset Eurozone peripheral debt market contagion risk, and the Korean situation was contained. Better US jobless claims and consumer confidence countered weak durable goods and housing data, and although the overall flavour was arguably negative, the S&P500 is up 1.3% currently. Commodities bounced back, the CRB index up 1.6%, oil +2.9%, copper +1.5%%, but safe-haven gold slipped 0.2%. US 10yr treasury yields rose 15bp to a 2.93% week-high, currently at 2.89%. The lack of appetite was also evident in an ugly 7yr auction. Eurozone peripheral government bonds were relatively stable, although the Irish 10yr underperformed Germany's by 30bp in the wake of Ireland's two-notch downgrade, later calmed by the release of Ireland's EUR15bn austerity plan.
The US dollar consolidated around its two-month high. EUR fell from 1.3400 to 1.3285 during the European session but recovered to settle at 1.3350, the German IFO business climate survey surprisingly strong. Without safe-haven needs, yen underperformed all, USD/JPY firming from 83.00 to 83.50.
AUD fell in early Europe from 0.9800 to 0.9740, but recovered with US equities to 0.9853.
NZD consolidated around its one-month low between 0.7580 and 0.7644. AUD/NZD gained throughout from 1.2830 to around 1.2900.
US durable goods orders fall 3.3% in Oct. A 4.5% fall in core capital goods orders (ex aircraft and defence) was the main source of weakness, but defence also fell sharply, resuming its 2010 downtrend. Sep orders growth was revised from 3.3% to 5.0%.
US core PCE deflator flat in Oct. This monthly inflation measure has been below 0.1% for 5 months running and the last two have rounded down to 0.0%, for an annualised inflation rate of just 0.7% - more justification for the Fed's concern that inflation is too low. The report also showed a 0.5% rise in personal income and personal spending growth of 0.4%.
US initial jobless claims drop 34k to 407k last week. That's the lowest since July 2008. At face value this suggests an improving labour market but we caution that the holidays can cause seasonal adjustment volatility. In the prior week continuing claims fell 42k to a new cycle low of 4182k.
US new home sales fall 8.1% in Oct, to a 283k annualised pace, almost back at Aug's 275k record low. Also the FHFA house price index fell 0.7% in Sep; it has not posted a gain since May.
US Uni of Michigan Nov consumer sentiment was revised up from 69.3 to 71.6, due to both current and outlook components.
Euroland industrial orders fell 3.8% in Sep, after Aug's 5.1% jump. Germany fell 3.5%, the major cause of the Euroland fall.
German IFO business climate index jumped from 107.7 to 109.3 in Nov, driven by a 2.2 pt rise in the current index and a 1.1 pt rise in expectations. The IFO headline is now at its highest for decades: German businessmen are clearly upbeat about their business and prospects for the economy.
UK GDP growth unrevised at 0.8% in Q3. The detail showed consumption soft, up 0.3%, but a stronger than expected net export performance. Also business investment fell 0.2% in Q3.
Canadian house prices fell 1.1% in Sep; the annual pace fell from 10.4% yr to 7.9% yr (June peak was 13.6%; TNB series).
Ireland's sovereign credit rating was downgraded two notches from AA- to A with a negative outlook by S&P, just before the government's four year deficit cutting plan was released.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: The US holiday today will thin markets. AUD's bearish neckline at 0.9740 has held for now, but any gains today should be limited by 0.9900. CAPEX today poses minor risk. NZD is likely to be capped by 0.7650 today, 0.7400 beckoning during coming weeks.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 25 November 2010. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpacâ€™s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Â© 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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