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Thursday November 25, 2010 - 11:43:31 GMT
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| | Email European Market Update: Peripherals remain the Turkey

Thursday, November 25, 2010 6:19:54 AM European Market Update: Peripherals remain the Turkey

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Nov 19th : $489.3B v $495.7B prior
- (IN) India Primary Articles w/e Nov 13th Y/Y: 13.4% v 13.3% prior; Food Articles WPI Y/Y: 10.2% v 10.3% prior
- (FR) France Nov Consumer Confidence: -32 v -34e
- (HU) Hungary Sept Retail Trade Y/Y: % v 0.4%e v 0.0% prior
- (SP) Spain Oct Producer Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.6%e
- 3:15 (SW) Sweden Nov Consumer Confidence: 22.6 v 23.4e; Manufacturing Confidence: 8 v 5e; Economic Tendency Survey: 114.1 v 110.1e
- (SZ) Swiss Q3 Employment Level: 4.08M v 4.06M prior
- (IT) Italy Nov Business Confidence: 101.6 v 99.8 prior
- (NV) Netherlands Nov Producer Confidence: 0.3 v 0.5 prior
- (SW) Sweden Oct Household Lending Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.9% prior
- (SW) Sweden Oct PPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 3.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Oct Trade Balance (HKD): -22.3BB v -20.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 13.9% v 19.8%e; Imports Y/Y: 14.0% v 19.0%e
- (IC) Iceland Nov CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.1%e
- (PD) Poland Oct Retail Sales M/M: 4.3% v 3.1%e; Y/Y: 9.0% v 8.2%e
- (PD) Poland Oct Unemployment Rate: 11.5% v 11.6%e
- (SA) South Africa Oct PPI M/M: -0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.8%e
- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%
- (BR) Brazil Oct Unemployment Rate: 6.1% v 6.1%e
- (UK) Nov CBI Distributive Trade Reported Sales Volume Balance: 43 v 33e

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €8.5 in 6-month Bills €8.5Bvs €8.5B Indicated; avg yield 1.483% v 1.203% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.65x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency sells
HUF30Bvs. HUF40B Target in 12-month Bills; avg yield 6.05% v 5.94% prior


Eurostoxx50 at 2759, -0.30%, FTSE100 at 5678, +0.38%, CAC40 at 3741, -0.17%, DAX at 6840, +0.24%

- European shares opened higher following strong Wall Street gains at yesterday's close, boosted by the lowest initial jobless claims since in 2 years and a half. Rally spread into Asian equities, despite continued tensions in the Korean peninsula. European debt concerns seemed to move away from the spotlight especially as ECB's Weber reassured markets in saying that if need be, the EU would increase the €750B stability fund amount. Nonetheless, some European bourses failed to sustain the earlier gains as Eurostoxx and CAC40 slipped into negative territory. Investors remain nervous over how the EU and the euro can afford to bail out
Portugal and Spain, if they were to request an aid too. Trading remains subdued, however, due to Thanksgiving holidays in the US.
- In individual names,
UK publisher Daily Mail and General [DMGT.UK] fell about 7% following its full year results. Both pretax earnings and revenue had decreased, failing to meet investors' expectations. Furthermore, company remained cautiously optimistic of achieving another year of underlying growth. Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] opened higher by less than 1% following the creation of a joint-venture with a Russian travel company.

- Europe Stability Fund (
EFSF) Chief Regling commented that the situation was serious in Euro Zone but saw zero chance of break up of its membership. He stated that countries like
Italy and Spain were not in danger and added it would be economic suicide to give up on Euro.
- EU Juncker commented in a newspaper interview that he was concerned that
Germany might lose focus on overall EU objective
- ECB Tumpel-Gugerell commented that each central bank must take measures they deem as appropriate. She noted that ECB did not need any additional measures as banks were less dependent on central bank funding
- ECB's Constanzio reiterated the European view that a more flexible CNY exchange rate would aid balance economic growth. He noted that both
Europe and China had shared economic interests. He noted that efforts were being made to address euro-zone debt problems but overall Euro area countries were currently leading the way in prioritizing a swift return to fiscal consolidation. He later stated that the ECB's planned exit from special measures was connected with the Irish situation and that it would be determined upon overall economic developments. He hoped the recently announced Irish 4-year outlook would calm markets. Lastly he believed that the financial markets were overshooting on the peripheral situation
- ECB's Makuch commented that the Euro was stable currency with good long-term prospects but slightly overvalued
- BoE's Miles commented in a newspaper interview that monetary policy had to remain expansionary and added that the MPC had ammunition left if growth disappointed
- Various BOE members testified at the Treasury Select Committee and the views mirrored the recent quarterly inflation report from last week. BOE King reiterated the majority view that there was still a margin of spare capacity in the economy which will be a headwind to levels of inflation. He believed that if MPC acted at this time it could result in undesirable volatility in the market. He reiterated that its was appropriate to maintain levels of stimulus, and the MPC was prepared to adjust policy in either direction. King also reiterated the view that inflation Rate likely to remain high for "another year or so" . On QE he commented that he would consider further QE measures if necessary but that there was enormous uncertainty about the impact of QE and rate moves.
- Bundesbank stated that German banks remained in good shape but reiterated the financial crisis was not yet over
- German Vice Chancellor Westerwelle maintained that private creditors should be partly liable under the new mechanism
- South Korea Defense Min resigned; no reason given as yet
- LCH Clearnet raises margin requirements for Irish bonds again to 45% from 30% prior
- Shanghai Exchange reportedly raised margin requirements for gold, copper, and aluminum contracts

- Euro-area contagion concerns continued to dampen any upward momentum for the EUR/USD pair. The light European session had numerous rumors again of potential peripheral downgrades with the 2011 maturity of over €100B in Italian Gov't debt circulating. Overall the greenback remained on supportive footing. The EUR/USD retested its two-month lows of 1.3285 again in the session.
The USD/CHF tested above parity for the first time in two month as dealers took advantage of thinning conditions to hunt for stops.
- The USD/JPY hovered above 83.50 as dealers noted the pair was aided by a pickup in US. Yields.

Geopolitical/In the papers:
- Tension in the Korean peninsula continues to build up as North Korea, in a letter to the US military warned South Korea that more retaliatory attacks would follow if it was to be provoked.
North Korea also stated that South's recent shelling was similar to an act of war while blaming US for the current border between the two countries and rejecting talks with US forces and UN command. The letter came after China made a statement calling for stability and opposing military provocation in the peninsula - the first statement from North Korea's ally since the start of the conflict.
- Meanwhile, Irish austerity budget comes with a heavy political cost for PM Cowen's Fianna Fail party as Irish go to vote in the northwestern
county of Donegal later today, in a by-election eyed by investors. While the coalition holds a seat in the South West, it is expected to lose it to the opposition party Sinn Fein during the vote. Recent polls place opposition (Sinn Fein - Pearse Doherty) in the lead followed by Cowen's party (Fianna Fail) for the county. As IMF and EU aid are highly unpopular among the Irish, there is a threatening possibility that the budget may not make it before the parliament on December 7th as a result of the by-election. This in turn would exacerbate the crisis in Ireland and Europe itself. Cowen's government is not expected to last after the first quarter of 2011 and it is expected that Fine Gael and Labour may form a new coalition government with maybe new ideas on how to keep the budget under control. Markets remain skeptical of the growth target Ireland has set to achieve. S&P rating agency, after downgrading Irish sovereign ratings, promptly dismissed the budget as too optimistic. Given that S&P took action even before the budget was announced its statement may suffer from a confirmation bias.

***Looking Ahead ***
- US Markets closed for Thanksgiving Holiday
10:00 (MX) Mexico Q3 Current Account: -$3.0Be v -$714M prior; GDP Y/Y: 9.5%e v 11.5% prior
10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Unemployment Rate: 5.4%e v 5.7% prior
14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 20.0% prior



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