Thursday April 21, 2005 - 01:30:11 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 21st April 2005 Price:
Resistance: 107.12 ... 107.30 ... 107.47 ... 107.70
Support....: 106.70 ... 106.40 ... 106.19 ... 105.84
Mixed - waiting for breaks
No break of the key 107.47 resistance and a move down to just above the next support at 106.52. The bullish wave structure appears to have broken down and we need to observe key levels. There is resistance first at 107.12, break providing potential for a return to 107.47. However, this level needs to break to generate the next move to 108.05 and only above here would bring the bullish view back on track.
Rejection from 107.47 brought price down to just above the next support at 106.52. While this was within expectations we are struggling in finding the correct wave relationships which causes us some considerable doubts over the bullish stance. Thus we should be aware of the possibility of further losses with a drop below 106.50 causing a move to 106.12-26 at least with much stronger support offered by 105.60-84.
Elliott Wave Comments:
20th April 2005
The decline to 106.69 may well have completed the downside but we do note the 138.2% Wave c target is at 106.52. A full 61.8% correction in Wave [b] is at 106.26. Thus while there are arguments to suggest the downside is complete (also considering the 106.84-99 pivot support area) we still need to be a little cautious at this stage. Thus we require a move back above 107.46 and preferably the Wave b resistance at 108.05 to feel more confident that we should see the expected resumption of the uptrend in Wave [c] of Wave [iii]. Until this break we do need to be aware of the risk of a dip to 106.26-52.
21st April 2005
While the bullish wave structure shown in the 8-hour chart has not broken down completely we have found the structure of the decline from 108.88 - and mostly from the 108.55 corrective high most difficult to assess. We should still watch the 50% retracement level at 106.26 but if this breaks we have to start thinking of the alternative structure. If this occurs then we'd have to count the low at 107.50 (marked as Wave c) to be a Wave -i- with the 108.55 high (marked as Wave x) as Wave -ii- and thus we'd look for a decline to a 138.2% projection at 105.60-65 to complete Wave -iii- then look for a Wave-iv- and then Wave -v- lower.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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