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Monday November 29, 2010 - 10:58:29 GMT
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European Market Update: Market not yet convinced contagion effects avoided (TTN)

Monday, November 29, 2010 5:55:19 AM

 European Market Update: Market not yet convinced contagion effects avoided


***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Nov Business Confidence: 5.0 v 7.0 prior; Consumer Confidence: 20.8 v 20.5 prior

- (SP) Spain Nov Preliminary
CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e

- (SP) Spain Oct Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.9% prior; Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.0% v -2.9% prior

- (SP) Spain Sept Total Housing Permits M/M: +49.3% v -41.5% prior; Y/Y: -5.5% v 1.0% prior

- (SW) Sweden Q3 GDP Q/Q: 2.1% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 6.9% v 5.4%e - (SW) Sweden Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.3%e

- (IT) Italy Oct PPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.2%e

- (UK) Oct Net Consumer Credit: £300M v £200Me; Net Lending: £1.0B v £0.5Be

- (UK) Oct Mortgage Approvals: 47.2K v 47.0Ke; Lowest reading since Feb 2010

- (UK) Oct Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.7% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: -0.7% v +1.1% prior (lowest YoY on record)

- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Business Climate: 0.96 v 1.05e; Consumer Confidence: -9 v -10e; Economic Confidence: 105.3 v 105.0e; Industrial Confidence: 1 v 2e; Services Confidence: 10 v 9e

- (IT) Italy Oct Hourly Wages M/M: 00% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.2%e

- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 1.5% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 10.3 v 10.2%e

- (PO) Portugal Nov Consumer Confidence: -44.9% v -40 prior; Economic Climate: -0.5 v -0.1 prior

- (BE) Belgium Nov CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.0% prior

Fixed Income

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.5B vs. €3.5-5.5B indicated range in 2013 and 2021 Bonds

- Sold €2.5B in 2.25% Nov 2013 BTP; avg yield 2.86% v 2.32% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.38 x v 1.35x prior

- Sold €3.0B in 3.75% Mar 2021 BTP; avg yield 4.43% v 3.89% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.27x v 1.42x prior



EuroStoxx50 at 2721, -0.58%, FTSE100 at 5662, -0.10%, CAC40 at 3698, -0.81%, DAX at 6806, -0.64%

- European shares opened higher on news of the Irish bailout but slipped again in negative territory. The rally was limited by ongoing fears of contagion to the other EU economies. European banks benefitted from the news nonetheless as Irish banks rose despite the possibility that the government may buy the majority stake in Bank of Ireland. Spanish and Portuguese banks also rose in the session.
- Austrian bank Raiffeisen [RIBH.AS] reported its third missed both on the net and interest income while provisions came below expectations. Company reiterated outlook of an increase in retail customer lending in FY10 but demand for credit was expected to remain subdued in 2010
- British Petroleum [BP.UK] sold its 60% stake in Pan American Energy to Bridas which is half-owned by CNOOC for $7B. Daily Mail reported that French energy name Total [FP.FR] was offered over £1B for its
UK retail gasoline stations by Greenergy. In M&A news, Daily Telegraph reported that Hermes [RMS.FR] had hired BNP Paribas and Bank of America to act as advisors against a takeover offer from LVMH.

Dealers took notice of various Wikileaks: Saudi king urged US to attack
Iran nuke facilities and that China directed cyber attacks on US.
- US Online Black Friday sales up 15.9% y/y - IBM's Coremetrics Benchmark analysis

- Christmas comes early for Ireland with a nice stocking stuffer but peripherals off their narrowest levels on 'weak' Italian bond auction


- German Fin Min Schaeuble echoed the other minister views that the Irish €85B aid package was appropriate and stressed that he hoped that calm returned to the markets . He stated that there was over speculation and irrational thinking in the market.
Portugal was under market pressure and the country must implement its planned austerity measures. He believed that Portugal was on track and will be successful in its planned austerity measures. Germany was determined and capable of defending the Euro currency as Germany has the most to lose

- Russia Central Bank Ulyukayev hinted that the CBR could move towards a tightening rate hike cycle. He noted that the possibility that the deposit rate could be raised in the future . However he did add that it would leave its lending rates on hold. He also stated that
Russia did not need measures to control capital outflows

- Czech Central Bank commented on its banking sector stress tests and noted that it would sufficiently remain stable against potential adverse shocks. It did note that some banks might have to raise capital by up to approx CZK11B in the worst case scenario. It expected non-performing loans ratio to rise to 11.4% in the baseline scenario by end of 2011


FX was looking for the reaction by
Europe regarding the Irish bailout and the session began on steady footing. Peripherals spreads tighten by a few bps in early moments of European trading and EUR/USD climbed to test 1.33 handle. As the day wore on the peripherals gave back their initial tightening on chatter that the Italian debt auction was weaker than anticipated. Dealers were also keenly watching the spread between Belgium/German 10-year bonds as it widened by 5bps to reach over 100bps level ahead of Belgium bond auction results.

Geopolitical/In the papers:

- In an interview with the Telegraph, Goldman Sachs' Jim O'Neill said the euro faces a 'black swan' moment. He mentioned the EMU needs to undergo a significant round of fiscal and political harmonization if it wants to salvage the euro, and if harmonization fails, then the EMU could see very extreme outcomes. He felt the euro would be even weaker if not for worries about the
US economy depressing the dollar. On fixed income investing O'Neill says he would stay away from debt in developed-world countries and instead favor the emerging markets.
- Following joint US -
South Korea military drills, the Finance Minister Yoon of South Korea said the country will increase military spending as a deterrent to escalating threat from North Korea.
- In European election news, the first of several regional and local elections took place during the weekend in the Spanish
province of Catalonia. Spain's ruling Socialist party suffered a setback as the nationalist Convergencia i Unio party won a big lead, which should allow it to form a new regional government. The Catalonian nationalist party took 62 seats, an increase from 48, in the 135-seat regional parliament, while Zapatero's Socialist party held on to 28 seats.
Ireland reached a formal agreement with the EU/IMF on an €85 billion bailout package. Of the €85 billion aid package, €45 billion will come from European governments, €22.5 billion from the IMF, and the remaining €17.5 billion from Ireland's cash reserves and national pension fund. Note there will be no changes to Ireland's 12.5% corporate tax rate. IMF official Chopra later stated there was broad general agreement within the political parties of the country with differences mainly revolving around how to achieve those goals. He said he was confident that the 2011 budget was going to pass.

***Looking Ahead ***

- (PO) Portugal Oct Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.6% prior

- (BR) Brazil Oct Central Govt Budget (BRL) No est v 26.1B prior

- 7:00 (CL) Chile Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: 3.9%e v 3.0% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.9% prior

- 7:00 (CL) Chile Oct Total Copper Production: No est v 444.4K tons prior

- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Private Banks Lending (BRL) No est v 932B prior; Total Outstanding Loans: No est v 1.612T prior

- 8:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leaves the Base Rate unchanged at 5.25%

- 8:30 (CA) Canada Q3 Current Account (BOP): -$14.5Be v -$11.0B prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canada Oct Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 1.0%e v -0.4% prior

- 9:00 (FR) France Debt Agency to sell Bills - 9:30 (EU) ECB Calls for bids in Main 7-Day Refi Tender - 10:30 (US) Nov Dallas Fed Manfacturing: No est v 2.6 prior

- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $1.5-2.5B in Notes/Bonds

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 3-Month Bills; $28B in 6-Month Bills

- 13:30 (US) Fed's Bullard Gives Opening Remarks on Consumer Protection

- 14:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $6-8B in Notes/Bonds



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