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Monday November 29, 2010 - 15:54:53 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (29 November 2010)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3065 level and was capped around the $1.3300 figure. The common currency reached its lowest level since 21 September after stops were triggered below the $1.3120 level, representing the 38.2% retracement of the $1.1875 – 1.4280 range.  Terms on Ireland’s €85 billion bailout were agreed to over the weekend and traders have shifted their focus on Portugal and Spain as far as eurozone sovereign credit risk is concerned.  Approximately €35 billion of Ireland’s bailout will be injected into the Irish banking system.  The common currency also moved lower on news that Greece received an extension on repayment of its ¥110 billion loan from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.  The loan to Greece will not mature until 2021.  Even though Portugal and Spain maintain that their funding needs have been met until 2011, traders continue to punish the euro on the premise those countries will eventually require assistance.  There is talk the European Central Bank will require liquidity stress tests on all eurozone banks in 2011.  The European Union today said inflation expectations are “well-anchored” and warned EMU-16 budget cuts may impact domestic demand more than expected.  The EU added the economic recovery is “set to become increasingly self-sustaining” though there will be a “differentiated pace of recovery in Europe.” The EU also released its latest economic forecasts for the eurozone and now sees gross domestic product growth and consumer price inflation of 1.7% and 1.5% respectively in 2010.  For 2011, the EU foresees GDP growth around 1.5% and inflation growth around 1.8%.  Data released in the eurozone saw the EMU-16 November business climate indicator climb to 0.96 with similar improvements in consumer confidence, economic confidence, industrial confidence, and services confidence.  In U.S. news, the November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index was released today and improved to +16.2 from the prior reading of +2.6.  Data to be released tomorrow include the September CaseShiller home price index, November Chicago PMI, and November consumer confidence.  Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks tomorrow and the Fed remains criticized about its decision to expand its balance sheet by up to US$ 600 billion in U.S. Treasury securities.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3035 level. 

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥84.30 level and was supported around the ¥83.80 level.  The pair extended its recent climb as the pair reached its strongest level since 27 September.  Some ruling Democratic Party of Japan legislators conceded that a revamp of the Bank of Japan Law will not result in less deflation.  DPJ legislators are seeking a revision in the law that would result in less BoJ independence and force the central bank to adopt an inflation target.  BoJ Governor Shirakawa spoke about the yen saying “In the short run, the appreciation of the yen depresses the revenue and profits of exporting firms. It should also be noted that the appreciation of the yen, from a longer-term perspective, has the positive effect of bringing about an improvement of the terms of trade through a decline in import prices.”  Shirakawa again vowed to take “appropriate action” on the yen and reiterated the Japanese economy is “pausing.”  Additionally, Shirakawa said he “doesn’t feel the need to change in a major manner our judgment that economic risks are roughly in balance.”  Data released in Japan overnight saw October retail trade improve to -1.9% m/m but worsen to -0.2% y/y.  Also, October large retailers’ sales improved to +0.4% and November small business confidence ticked lower to 45.8.  Data to be released tonight include November manufacturing PMI, October household spending, the October jobless rate, and October industrial production.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.86% to close at ¥10,125.99.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥84.60 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥110.40 level and was capped around the ¥111.75 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥131.35 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥84.10 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.6603 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.6686.  Data to be released on Wednesday include November manufacturing PMI and estimates anticipate a slight improvement.  People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Ma Delun said the central bank will absorb additional liquidity by selling bills.  Chinese banks’ yuan positions originating from their sale of foreign exchange rose in October at their fastest pace in 30 months to CNY 21.8 trillion.  China’s money supply has climbed 50% in the past two years. 

£

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.5525 level and was capped around the US$ 1.5645 level.  Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 76.4% retracement of the $1.5295 – 1.6300 figure.  Data released in the U.K. today saw the November Hometrack house survey off 0.8% m/m and 1.1% y/y.  Also, October net consumer credit climbed to £300 million and October mortgage approvals ticked lower to 47,200 despite an increase in net lending secured on dwellings.  The November GfK consumer confidence survey will be released tonight during the Australasian session.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Sentance yesterday noted the central bank’s commitment to its inflation target is being questioned and added interest rates “need to rise gradually.”  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5295 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8415 level and was capped around the £0.8520 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0045 level and was supported around the CHF 0.9985 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 50% retracement of the CHF 1.0625 – 0.9460 range.  Swiss National Bank Chairman Hildebrand this weekend banks must be disincentivized from returning to the old risk models of the past.  Last week, Hildebrand noted exchange rate moves are a “major challenge” to Switzerland.  Data to be released this week include the October UBS consumption indicator tomorrow, November PMI on Wednesday, Q3 gross domestic product on Thursday, and November consumer price inflation on Friday.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0180 level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3135 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.5575 level.

 

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