***Economic Data*** - (PO) Portugal Oct Industrial Production M/M: -2.4% v -4.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.5% v -1.9% prior - (IS) Israel Q3 Unemployment Rate: 6.6% v 6.2% prior - (BE) Belgium Oct Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.5% prior - (IR) Ireland Nov Consumer Confidence 48.4 v 48.1 prior - (CL) Chile Oct Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 7.8%e - (SA) South Africa Oct Budget (ZAR): -17.5B v -16.2Be - (SA) South Africa Oct Trade Balance (ZAR): -3.2B v -2.0Be - (EU) OECD Oct Inflation M/M: 1.9% v 1.7% prior - (BR) Brazil Oct Primary Budget (BRL): 9.7BB v 13.3Be; Nominal Budget: 6.4B v 2.0Be; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 41.3 v 41.0% prior - (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Nov 27th: +0.5% w/w; +3.5% y/y - (CA) Canada Sept Gross Domestic Product M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Q3 GDP Annualized: 1.0% v 1.5%e - (US) Redbook Weekly Retail Sales w/e Nov 27th: +4.9% y/y; MTD: +0.6% v Oct - (US) Sept S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: 147.49 v 148.55 prior; Composite-20 Y/Y: 0.59% v 1.0%e - (US) Q3 S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: 135.5 v 138.3 prior; HPI Y/Y: -1,5% v 1.3%e - (US) Nov Chicago Purchasing Manager: 62.5 v 59.9e; Highest since Apr 2010 - (US) Nov Consumer Confidence: 54.1 v 53.0e - (US) Nov NAPM Milwaukee: 59.0 v 57.5e
- US equity indices opened lower again this morning thanks to frightening headlines out of Europe, where wild overnight rumors suggested that contagion had taken hold on the continent. Spreads on both the debt of peripheral eurozone nations and now core member states widened out, to the former record highs. Better than expected US data out around 10:00ET has taken US stocks off their lows. The November Chicago PMI reading came in at highs last seen in April, while the key prices paid and new orders sub-indices were very strong. November Consumer Confidence was better than expected, moving out to a five-month high. Adding credence to the housing double-dip narrative, the Sept S&P/Case-Shiller index showed that home prices are falling once again in the nation's largest cities. Gold, the greenback and US Treasuries continue to be the preferred safe havens from European trouble: EUR/USD is toying with 1.30, gold is making two-week highs just shy of $1,390, while the yield on the 10-year UST fell to 2.67% from 2.83% seen on Monday.
- A rash of tech news is moving select names. Semi names are under pressure this morning after chip maker Altera disappointed investors in its mid quarter update. The midpoint of Altera's Q4 revenue guidance was barely above analysts' expectations, and shares of ALTR are down 2%. Hard drive manufacturer Seagate Technology terminated buyout negotiations with an unnamed private equity firm. To placate restless investors the company launched a big stock buyback equal to 30% of the firm's float. The announcement has strengthened some related names, with Western Digital and Sandisk unchanged on a day when the market is in the red. Computer security name Symantec is in the black on an article in the New York Post asserting that the firm has hired advisors to consider strategic alternatives. RIMM is up nearly 5% on some positive analyst calls. Comcast has picked a fight with Level 3 over content transmission fees, announcing that, for the first time, it will demand a recurring fee from Level 3 to transmit Internet online movies and other content to Comcasts customers. The conflict reopens discussion about net neutrality regulation, and Level 3 said that it believes Comcast's current position violates the spirit and letter of the FCCs proposed Internet Policy principles. In other equity news, shares of Baldor Electric are up sharply after the firm said it would be acquired by ABB for $63.50/shr in cash, in a deal valued at $3.0B (about a 41% premium to the prior closing price).
- US names were decent sellers of EUR/USD during early New York trading. Credit default swaps on Portugal's 5-year debt rose to around 575 bps compared to 560 bps a few hours earlier and almost 40 bps above Monday's levels. Even CDS on German debt widened by almost 10 bps compared to yesterday's levels and was hovering near 60bps. Dealers were hearing vague chatter that US banks were refusing euro names in swap markets, although this sort of rumor is usually designed to magnify fears of contagion in extreme markets. The better US Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence data provided some relief to the risk aversion and safe haven flows. IMF's Lipsky commented that he believed the threats to the euro were 'wildly exaggerated', adding that the euro was solidly valued at the appropriate level. EUR/USD was trying to hold above 1.30 in the mid-NY morning. All eyes are now turning toward Thursday's ECB meeting to see whether the ECB will extend bank access to unlimited three-month funds beyond January.
***Looking Ahead*** - 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills - 12:00 (US) Treasury's SFP bills - 12:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on monetary policy in St. Paul, MN - 13:30 (MX) Mexico Oct YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -176.8B prior - 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 8.3% prior - 14:00 (US) House Subcommittee to review Fed Bond purchase program - 15:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks with business leaders in Ohio - 16:30 (US) API Weekly energy inventories - 20:00 (CH) China Nov Manufacturing PMI: 54.8e v 54.7 prior
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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