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Tuesday November 30, 2010 - 19:06:25 GMT
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Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

Morning Report Wednesday 1 December 2010

News and views

Risk aversion lingered, the usual culprits Eurozone contagion and China tightening rumours dominating market chatter. The S&P500 is 0.4% lower on the day but did hold above the key 1173 support level. That bounce off the day's low around noon NY coincided with some positive US news from consumer confidence and Chicago PMI reports. Commodities were mixed, the CRB index little changed, oil (-0.5%) following equities, copper (+1.4%) boosted after research on supply constraints, and fickle gold (+1.6%) behaving as a safe haven. US 3mth Libor emerged from a three-month slumber to nudge 0.4bp higher to 0.30%, possibly related to Eurozone-induced funding concerns. US 10yr treasury yields are 4bp lower to 2.79% after bottoming at 2.75%. All the Eurozone peripheral government bonds underperformed Germany's, Hungary hardest hit at +26bp to 8.44%, an August-2009 high, followed by Belgium (+11bp to 3.99% - a June 2009 high).

The US dollar's rise continued, making a fresh two-month high. EUR understandably underperformed all majors, falling from 1.3135 to 1.2971 in Europe before the US data provided some support. Korean concerns receded and the yen re-established its safe haven identity, outperforming on the day from 84.10 to 83.43 (vs USD).

AUD probed lower from a Europe high of 0.9640 to 0.9544, turning with US equities to 0.9620.

NZD also slipped further, but the key 0.7400 support level held and it's little changed at 0.7460. AUD/NZD retreated from the domestic session high of 1.2940 to around 1.2900.

US Chicago PMI up from 60.6 to 62.5 in Nov.  The Chicago PMI rose even further this month to its highest since April and the orders and production indices are now straddling 70. On the surface, that is supportive of our forecast that the national factory ISM edges higher in Nov but we note that over the past year, Chicago has given a contrary signal to ISM 69% of the time. Also, the Milwaukee PMI rose from 56 to 59 in Nov.

US house prices fall 0.8% in Sep. That is the third fall running, and the steepest of that sequence, according to S&P-Case Shiller. Annual house price growth of 0.6% yr is the slowest since January and compares to 4.3% yr in June. More evidence here of the ongoing malaise in the US housing market.

US consumer confidence up from 49.9 to 54.1 in Nov. That is the highest outcome since May, and mainly reflected an improvement in expectations. The current labour market assessment was only marginally higher, up 0.3 pts to -42.5.

Japanese data. The preliminary October industrial production outcome was better than expected at -1.8% (mkt -3.2%); however, annual growth decelerated sharply to 4.5%yr, from 11.5%yr in Sept. The Nomura manufacturing PMI was broadly unchanged in Nov at 47.3 (prev 47.2). In the labour market, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1ppts to 5.1% in Oct against expectations (mkt 5.0%) and labour earnings were slightly weaker than expected at 0.6%yr. Household spending growth fell to -0.4%yr in Oct, from 0%yr. Housing starts growth was weaker than expected at 6.4%yr (mkt 9.7%yr), down from 17.7%yr in Sep Finally, the pace of decline in construction orders decelerated to -5.6%yr in October, from -15.0%yr in September.

Euroland inflation steady at 1.9% yr in Nov according to the flash estimate. In Oct, the jobless rate edged up from 10.0% to 10.1%. Meanwhile in Nov, German unemployment fell 9k, for a steady jobless rate at 7.5%.

UK consumer confidence fell from -19 to -21 in Nov, its lowest since July, according to GfK. Future-looking factors drove the decline, such as the outlook for personal finances over the next year.

Canadian GDP growth slowed from 2.3% annualised to 1.0% in Q3. That was weaker than expected, and was due in part to September GDP contracting 0.1%, its first monthly decline in over a year.


AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:  Australian Q3 GDP is the main event today, a range of 0.1% to 0.5% estimated. AUD continues to work its way to the next major support level of 0.9400, bounces capped by 0.9700. NZD reached its 0.7400 target, so a minor bounce here is possible.


.Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 1 December 2010. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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