TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: A sense of calm returns; Participants demand that the ECB extend its unlimited liquidity funding
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: A sense of calm returns; Participants demand that the ECB extend its unlimited liquidity funding
***Economic Data*** - (GE) Germany Oct Retail Sales M/M: 2.3% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v 1.3%e - (IR) Ireland Nov NCB Manufacturing PMI: 51.2v 50.9 prior - (UK) Nov Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e - (TH) Thailand Central Bank raises its Benchmark Interest Rate by 25bps to 2.00%; Not Expected - (SW) Sweden Nov Swedbank PMI Survey: 61.3 v 62.3e - (HU) Hungary Nov Hungary PMI: 54.9 v 51.7 prior - (PD) Poland Nov Manufacturing PMI: 55.9 v 55.6 prior - (NO) Norway Nov PMI:56.0 v 54.0e - (TU) Turkey Nov Manufacturing PMI: 56.4 v 54.3 prior - (SP) Spain Nov Manufacturing PMI: 50.0 v 51.2 prior - (DE) Denmark Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.8%E - (SZ) Swiss Nov SVME-Purchasing Managers Index: 61.8 v 59.5e - (SW) Sweden 3Q Current Account (SEK): 50.3b v 55.4B prior - (CZ) Czech Nov Manufacturing PMI: 57.3 v 57.2 prior - (IT) Italy Nov PMI Manufacturing: 52.0 v 53.0e - (FR) France Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 57.9 v 57.5e - (GE) Germany Nov Final PMI Manufacturing:58.1 v 58.9e - (GR) Greece Nov PMI Manufacturing : 43.9 v 43.6 prior - (EU) Euro Zone Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.3 v 55.5e - (SA) South Africa Nov Kagiso PMI: 52.9 v 50.7e - (UK) Nov PMI Manufacturing: 58.0 v 54.7e - (DE) Denmark Nov Danish PMI Survey: 51.5 v 54.8 prior
Fixed Income: - (GE) Germany sells â‚¬4.13B in 1.75% Oct 2015 BOBL; avg yield 1.73% v 1.65% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.1x v 1.6x prior - (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold 500Mâ‚¬ vs. â‚¬500M Indicated in 12-Month Bills; avg yield 5.281% v 4.813% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.5x v 1.8x prior Nov 17th auction
Eurostoxx at 2690, +1.47%, FTSE100 at 5595, +1.22%, CAC40 at 3637, +0.74%, DAX at 6794, +1.59%
- European shares rallied from their 2-month lows lifted by commodities stocks and banks. Strong Chinese PMI halted the recent sell-off providing solace from EU debt concerns and boosting sentiment on hopes of a global growth. US data has also been supportive of the recovery sentiment. Gains remain limited as Eurozone continues to worry investors who were anticipating the Portuguese debt auction. Santander rallied 4.5% and BBVA was up 5% thanks to the improved sentiment also supported by Deutsche Bank's chief rhetoric who noted that Spain and banks can manage problems themselves and that investors mistrust was misplaced. - World's second largest retailer Carrefour [CA.FR] was the biggest decliner in European trading declining by 10%. Carrefour raised its expected charge on Brazil operations to â‚¬550M from â‚¬180M which prompted the company to state that its profit would also be lower than previously guided by â‚¬130M. Markets were not convinced as management tried to reassure that these are past management mistakes and that it would not impact long-term goals. Many analysts raised concerns over group's credibility on its forecast and management capability. Following the announcement Barclays downgraded its rating to Equal-weight from Overweight. - Porsche [PAH3.GE] rose by 3% after investors approved a â‚¬5B capital hike which would pave the way to a merger with Volkswagen. The merger's timing is still uncertain. Travel group Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] failed to maintain its early gains and is trading in the red following its first half figures. Profit and revenue had declined and group noted that trading in the UK was harder than anticipated.
Notes/Observations: - Risk appetite finds its balance despite softer Australian GDP - PMI readings mixed but key focus was China and India - Renewed chatter of ECB buying peripheral debt helped to narrow the spreads across the board. - dealer stress that 'all eyes' were now turning toward Thursday's ECB meeting to see whether the ECB would extend bank access to unlimited three-month funds beyond January - Mixed European debt auctions: Germany not too impressive but Portugal gets its 12-month paper out
Speakers: - German CDU member Dautzenberg reiterated the German stance and rejected any calls for expansion of EFSF rescue fund - German Econ Min Bruederle commented that it should avoid a new transfer mechanism in the Euro region and stated that in theory a Euro zone member could become insolvent. He reiterated that the situation in Ireland was different compared to other peripherals. He has no concerns or fears regarding the Italian situation and did not think neither Spain or Portugal would need the rescue mechanism - Russia Central Bank Ulyukayev commented that the central bank would continue to expand the RUB currency floating corridor . He added that the CBR would gradually reduce the FX intervention volumes in a gradual manner in order to allow market participants determine the exchange rate value. He commented on the CBR diversification process and noted that it would not begin buying AUD for reserves until mid 2011 - DMO Minutes: Scheduled 11 Gilt auctions due from Jan-Mar. 2011, and one syndicated Linker sale in period - EU published its State Aid Overhaul which prolonged the crisis state aid rules into next year. It sought restructuring plans for bank recapitalization and stricter rules for banking sector bailouts. It noted that it approved â‚¬4.5T in aid from Oct 2008 thru Oct 2010 period
Currencies: - The European morning exhibited a sigh of relief in its risk aversion sentiment as various factors contributed to stabilization of the European peripheral situation. There was chatter that the G20 deputy finance ministers held a conference call on Monday to discuss the situation in Europe. Dealers noted that ECB's Trichet's comments on Tuesday helped to smooth things over. A new month of trading was aided by the better China PMI data and overall steady European PMI readings. Renewed chatter of ECB buying peripheral debt helped to narrow the spreads across the board. The Far East central banks also took advantage of the Euro's dip to add to its reserves. The bottom line was that the peripheral spreads narrowed steadily throughout the session. - The EUR/USD climbed above the 1.31 handle but remained below the key 200-day mvg avg (currently seen at 1.3120). Again dealer stress that 'all eyes' were now turning toward Thursday's ECB meeting to see whether the ECB would extend bank access to unlimited three-month funds beyond January. If not then the situation could quickly add to risk aversion fears. - The GBP/USD moved above the 1.56 handle aided by its PMI reading and complemented by the Nov You/Gov Year-ahead inflation expectation of 3.3% (highest level since Sept 2008) - The sense of calm in the session had other currencies that exhibited safe-haven status reverse their recent gains. EUR/CHF was higher by almost 150bps to test 1.3170 and The JPY was weaker. Commodity currencies were firmer while outright prices for oil. Gold, silver and other materials were higher on the rise in risk.
Geopolitical/In the papers: - According to press reports, the European Union may be considering a stricter stress test for European banks - press. The European Bank stress tests had understated some of the banks' holdings of sovereign debt as noted in press reports from September. - The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard examined whether or not the Irish government will approve the country's aid package and austerity measures during the budget vote expected next week. As stated by Evan-Pritchard, the recent aid package is aimed at bailing out the country's creditors in Germany, UK and Belgium. In addition, Ireland's taxpayers will carry most of the burden related to the aid package. - In the Financial Times, it was reported that ECB President Trichet left open the possibility for significant expansion of government bond purchases, though he would not speculate due to the current situation. The program is ongoing and will be discussed as early as next Thursday's meeting. As a reminder, fx dealers and bond traders noted on Tuesday that all eyes are turning toward Thursday's ECB meeting to see if the ECB will extend bank access to unlimited three-month funds beyond January. - The Financial Times commented on Italy's admission of risks of sovereign debt market contagion. The article pointed to fresh data suggesting rising unemployment, as well as Rome 'paralyzed' by thousands of protesting students. The cost of Italian borrowing rose more than 2pts above Germany's for the first time since 1997.
***Looking Ahead *** - (RU) Russia Nov Reserve Fund: No est v $41.8B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $90.1B prior - (CZ) Czech Nov Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -96.7B prior - (UK) BOE's Dale text from speech (appearance canceled due to bad weather) - 6:00 (EU) EU Almunia - 6:00 (PD) Poland to sell up to PLN4.5B in Bonds - 6:00 (IR) Ireland Nov Live Register Monthly Change: K v -6.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: % v 13.6% prior - 6:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes - 7:00 (BR) Brazil Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.5 prior - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 26th: No est v 2.1% prior - 7:30 (US) Nov Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No est v -31.8% prior - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Trade Balance: $950Mev $1.9B prior; - 8:15 (US) Nov ADP Employment Change: +70Ke v +43K prior - 8:30 (US) Q3 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 2.3%e v 1.9% prelim; Unit Labor Costs: -0.2%e v -0.1% prior - 8:30 (EU) EU Think Tanks hold conference on Economic Policy - 9:10 (US) Fed's Yellen speaks on fiscal responsibility in New - 9:30 (US) Fed's Tarullo to testify on Mortgage Servicing - 10:00 (US) Nov ISM Manufacturing: 56.5e v 56.9 prior; Prices Paid: 69.8e v 71.0 prior - 10:00 (US) Oct Construction Spending M/M: -0.3%e v 0.5% prior - 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly Energy Inventories - 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $7-9B in Notes/Bonds - 12:00 (IT) Italy Nov New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -28.8% prior - 13:00 (IT) Italy Nov Budget Balance: No est v -â‚¬7.5B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -â‚¬72.0B prior - 13:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Remittances: $1.8Bev $1.7B prior - 13:00 (US) Fed's Fisher to speak on U.S. Economy in Killeen, Texas - 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book - 17:00 (US) Nov Domestic Vehicle Sales: 9.03Me v 9.27M prior; Total Vehicle Sales: 12.12Me v 12.25M prior - US/South Korea continue with military exercises in the yellow Sea
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.