TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: A sense of calm returns; Participants demand that the ECB extend its unlimited liquidity funding
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: A sense of calm returns; Participants demand that the ECB extend its unlimited liquidity funding
***Economic Data*** - (GE) Germany Oct Retail Sales M/M: 2.3% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v 1.3%e - (IR) Ireland Nov NCB Manufacturing PMI: 51.2v 50.9 prior - (UK) Nov Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e - (TH) Thailand Central Bank raises its Benchmark Interest Rate by 25bps to 2.00%; Not Expected - (SW) Sweden Nov Swedbank PMI Survey: 61.3 v 62.3e - (HU) Hungary Nov Hungary PMI: 54.9 v 51.7 prior - (PD) Poland Nov Manufacturing PMI: 55.9 v 55.6 prior - (NO) Norway Nov PMI:56.0 v 54.0e - (TU) Turkey Nov Manufacturing PMI: 56.4 v 54.3 prior - (SP) Spain Nov Manufacturing PMI: 50.0 v 51.2 prior - (DE) Denmark Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.8%E - (SZ) Swiss Nov SVME-Purchasing Managers Index: 61.8 v 59.5e - (SW) Sweden 3Q Current Account (SEK): 50.3b v 55.4B prior - (CZ) Czech Nov Manufacturing PMI: 57.3 v 57.2 prior - (IT) Italy Nov PMI Manufacturing: 52.0 v 53.0e - (FR) France Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 57.9 v 57.5e - (GE) Germany Nov Final PMI Manufacturing:58.1 v 58.9e - (GR) Greece Nov PMI Manufacturing : 43.9 v 43.6 prior - (EU) Euro Zone Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.3 v 55.5e - (SA) South Africa Nov Kagiso PMI: 52.9 v 50.7e - (UK) Nov PMI Manufacturing: 58.0 v 54.7e - (DE) Denmark Nov Danish PMI Survey: 51.5 v 54.8 prior
Fixed Income: - (GE) Germany sells â‚¬4.13B in 1.75% Oct 2015 BOBL; avg yield 1.73% v 1.65% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.1x v 1.6x prior - (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold 500Mâ‚¬ vs. â‚¬500M Indicated in 12-Month Bills; avg yield 5.281% v 4.813% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.5x v 1.8x prior Nov 17th auction
Eurostoxx at 2690, +1.47%, FTSE100 at 5595, +1.22%, CAC40 at 3637, +0.74%, DAX at 6794, +1.59%
- European shares rallied from their 2-month lows lifted by commodities stocks and banks. Strong Chinese PMI halted the recent sell-off providing solace from EU debt concerns and boosting sentiment on hopes of a global growth. US data has also been supportive of the recovery sentiment. Gains remain limited as Eurozone continues to worry investors who were anticipating the Portuguese debt auction. Santander rallied 4.5% and BBVA was up 5% thanks to the improved sentiment also supported by Deutsche Bank's chief rhetoric who noted that Spain and banks can manage problems themselves and that investors mistrust was misplaced. - World's second largest retailer Carrefour [CA.FR] was the biggest decliner in European trading declining by 10%. Carrefour raised its expected charge on Brazil operations to â‚¬550M from â‚¬180M which prompted the company to state that its profit would also be lower than previously guided by â‚¬130M. Markets were not convinced as management tried to reassure that these are past management mistakes and that it would not impact long-term goals. Many analysts raised concerns over group's credibility on its forecast and management capability. Following the announcement Barclays downgraded its rating to Equal-weight from Overweight. - Porsche [PAH3.GE] rose by 3% after investors approved a â‚¬5B capital hike which would pave the way to a merger with Volkswagen. The merger's timing is still uncertain. Travel group Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] failed to maintain its early gains and is trading in the red following its first half figures. Profit and revenue had declined and group noted that trading in the UK was harder than anticipated.
Notes/Observations: - Risk appetite finds its balance despite softer Australian GDP - PMI readings mixed but key focus was China and India - Renewed chatter of ECB buying peripheral debt helped to narrow the spreads across the board. - dealer stress that 'all eyes' were now turning toward Thursday's ECB meeting to see whether the ECB would extend bank access to unlimited three-month funds beyond January - Mixed European debt auctions: Germany not too impressive but Portugal gets its 12-month paper out
Speakers: - German CDU member Dautzenberg reiterated the German stance and rejected any calls for expansion of EFSF rescue fund - German Econ Min Bruederle commented that it should avoid a new transfer mechanism in the Euro region and stated that in theory a Euro zone member could become insolvent. He reiterated that the situation in Ireland was different compared to other peripherals. He has no concerns or fears regarding the Italian situation and did not think neither Spain or Portugal would need the rescue mechanism - Russia Central Bank Ulyukayev commented that the central bank would continue to expand the RUB currency floating corridor . He added that the CBR would gradually reduce the FX intervention volumes in a gradual manner in order to allow market participants determine the exchange rate value. He commented on the CBR diversification process and noted that it would not begin buying AUD for reserves until mid 2011 - DMO Minutes: Scheduled 11 Gilt auctions due from Jan-Mar. 2011, and one syndicated Linker sale in period - EU published its State Aid Overhaul which prolonged the crisis state aid rules into next year. It sought restructuring plans for bank recapitalization and stricter rules for banking sector bailouts. It noted that it approved â‚¬4.5T in aid from Oct 2008 thru Oct 2010 period
Currencies: - The European morning exhibited a sigh of relief in its risk aversion sentiment as various factors contributed to stabilization of the European peripheral situation. There was chatter that the G20 deputy finance ministers held a conference call on Monday to discuss the situation in Europe. Dealers noted that ECB's Trichet's comments on Tuesday helped to smooth things over. A new month of trading was aided by the better China PMI data and overall steady European PMI readings. Renewed chatter of ECB buying peripheral debt helped to narrow the spreads across the board. The Far East central banks also took advantage of the Euro's dip to add to its reserves. The bottom line was that the peripheral spreads narrowed steadily throughout the session. - The EUR/USD climbed above the 1.31 handle but remained below the key 200-day mvg avg (currently seen at 1.3120). Again dealer stress that 'all eyes' were now turning toward Thursday's ECB meeting to see whether the ECB would extend bank access to unlimited three-month funds beyond January. If not then the situation could quickly add to risk aversion fears. - The GBP/USD moved above the 1.56 handle aided by its PMI reading and complemented by the Nov You/Gov Year-ahead inflation expectation of 3.3% (highest level since Sept 2008) - The sense of calm in the session had other currencies that exhibited safe-haven status reverse their recent gains. EUR/CHF was higher by almost 150bps to test 1.3170 and The JPY was weaker. Commodity currencies were firmer while outright prices for oil. Gold, silver and other materials were higher on the rise in risk.
Geopolitical/In the papers: - According to press reports, the European Union may be considering a stricter stress test for European banks - press. The European Bank stress tests had understated some of the banks' holdings of sovereign debt as noted in press reports from September. - The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard examined whether or not the Irish government will approve the country's aid package and austerity measures during the budget vote expected next week. As stated by Evan-Pritchard, the recent aid package is aimed at bailing out the country's creditors in Germany, UK and Belgium. In addition, Ireland's taxpayers will carry most of the burden related to the aid package. - In the Financial Times, it was reported that ECB President Trichet left open the possibility for significant expansion of government bond purchases, though he would not speculate due to the current situation. The program is ongoing and will be discussed as early as next Thursday's meeting. As a reminder, fx dealers and bond traders noted on Tuesday that all eyes are turning toward Thursday's ECB meeting to see if the ECB will extend bank access to unlimited three-month funds beyond January. - The Financial Times commented on Italy's admission of risks of sovereign debt market contagion. The article pointed to fresh data suggesting rising unemployment, as well as Rome 'paralyzed' by thousands of protesting students. The cost of Italian borrowing rose more than 2pts above Germany's for the first time since 1997.
***Looking Ahead *** - (RU) Russia Nov Reserve Fund: No est v $41.8B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $90.1B prior - (CZ) Czech Nov Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -96.7B prior - (UK) BOE's Dale text from speech (appearance canceled due to bad weather) - 6:00 (EU) EU Almunia - 6:00 (PD) Poland to sell up to PLN4.5B in Bonds - 6:00 (IR) Ireland Nov Live Register Monthly Change: K v -6.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: % v 13.6% prior - 6:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes - 7:00 (BR) Brazil Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.5 prior - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 26th: No est v 2.1% prior - 7:30 (US) Nov Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No est v -31.8% prior - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Trade Balance: $950Mev $1.9B prior; - 8:15 (US) Nov ADP Employment Change: +70Ke v +43K prior - 8:30 (US) Q3 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 2.3%e v 1.9% prelim; Unit Labor Costs: -0.2%e v -0.1% prior - 8:30 (EU) EU Think Tanks hold conference on Economic Policy - 9:10 (US) Fed's Yellen speaks on fiscal responsibility in New - 9:30 (US) Fed's Tarullo to testify on Mortgage Servicing - 10:00 (US) Nov ISM Manufacturing: 56.5e v 56.9 prior; Prices Paid: 69.8e v 71.0 prior - 10:00 (US) Oct Construction Spending M/M: -0.3%e v 0.5% prior - 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly Energy Inventories - 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $7-9B in Notes/Bonds - 12:00 (IT) Italy Nov New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -28.8% prior - 13:00 (IT) Italy Nov Budget Balance: No est v -â‚¬7.5B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -â‚¬72.0B prior - 13:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Remittances: $1.8Bev $1.7B prior - 13:00 (US) Fed's Fisher to speak on U.S. Economy in Killeen, Texas - 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book - 17:00 (US) Nov Domestic Vehicle Sales: 9.03Me v 9.27M prior; Total Vehicle Sales: 12.12Me v 12.25M prior - US/South Korea continue with military exercises in the yellow Sea
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