***Economic Data*** - (IR) Ireland Nov Live Register Monthly Change: -4.2K v -6.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: 13.5% v 13.6% prior - (CZ) Czech Nov Budget Balance (CZK): -140.8B v -96.7B prior - (BR) Brazil Nov PMI Manufacturing: 49.9 v 49.5 prior - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 26th: -16.5% v 2.1% prior - (US) Nov Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: -3.3% v -31.8% prior - (BR) Brazil Trade Balance: $314M v $950Me - (US) Nov ADP Employment Change: +93K v +70Ke - (US) Q3 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 2.3% v 2.3%; Unit Labor Costs: -0.1% v -0.2%e - (US) Nov ISM Manufacturing: 56.6 v 56.9 prior; Prices Paid: 69.5 v 71.0 prior - (US) Oct Construction Spending M/M: +0.7% v -0.3%e v 0.5% prior - (MX) Mexico Oct Remittances: $1.7B v $1.8Be - (US) DOE Weekly Energy Inventories: Crude: +1.1M v -1Me; Gasoline: +560K v 0Me (flat); Distillate: -194K v -1Me; Utilization: 82.6% v 85.8%e
- Strong UK and Chinese manufacturing PMI data for the month of November plus the much better than expected US November ADP employment numbers are helping equities around the globe recoup recent losses. The Chinese PMI pushed out to a seven-month high, although China's emerging inflation problem was highlighted in the sky-high input prices subcomponent, while the UK PMI hit highs last seen in late 1994. The ADP report's outperformance was driven by big employment gains at small businesses and the October figure was doubled in revisions, from +43K to +82K. Analysts suggest that the data bodes very well for Friday's payrolls reports, especially the private payrolls component. The November ISM Manufacturing data was right in line with expectations, although a m/m decline was seen in the new orders component. Note that the European debt crisis is not dominating the news flow for the first time in more than a week, and spreads on both core and peripheral European sovereign debt have narrowed after reports that the ECB was stepping in to markets to buy up debt and may expand its bond buying campaign. With the better risk appetite money has come out of safe havens, with gold and the dollar off recent lows. Crude is flat on the day, trading around $85.50.
- The euro extended its session gains as US traders came to their desks, aided by tightening peripheral spreads. EUR/USD tested back above its 200-day mvg avg of 1.3120 on speculation that the ECB might announce an extension to its bond buying program at its press conference on Dec 2nd (tomorrow). The ECB likely purchased some peripheral debt with Irish and Portuguese bonds suspected as target to help maintain a narrowing mode in the key gov't bond spreads. The Spanish IBEX was up almost 5% in a 'massive' short-covering rally. The better ADP employment data provided additional fuel for the rise in the overall "risk on" theme ahead of the NY equity open. However, FX trading desks remain somewhat skeptical that the price action exhibited today might likely to set up for disappointment tomorrow. The daily close above/below the EUR/USD 200-day mvg avg of 1.3120 will set the technical tone into tomorrow's ECB rate decision.
***Looking Ahead*** - (RU) Russia Nov Reserve Fund: No est v $41.8B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $90.1B prior - (PE) Peru Nov Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior - 12:00 (IT) Italy Nov New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -28.8% prior - 13:00 (IT) Italy Nov Budget Balance: No est v -â‚¬7.5B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -â‚¬72.0B prior - 13:00 (US) Fed's Fisher to speak on U.S. Economy - 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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