TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite rising ahead of Key US payroll data; Policymakers manage to stabilize the contagion situation
Friday, December 03, 2010
TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite rising ahead of Key US payroll data; Policymakers manage to stabilize the contagion situation
***Economic Data*** - (IR) Ireland Nov NCB Services PMI: v 50.9 prior - (NO) Norway Nov Unemployment Rate: 2.7% v 2.7% prior - (SP) Spain Oct Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.0%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -3.8% v -1.0% prior - (TU) Turkey Nov Consumer Prices M/M: 0.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 7.3% v 8.2%e - (TU) Turkey Nov Producer Prices M/M: -0.3% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 8.2% v 9.9% prior - (SP) Spain Nov Services PMI: 48.3 v 46.5 prior; fourth consecutive reading below the 50 level - (SZ) Swiss Nov CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.1%e - (IT) Italy Nov PMI Services: 54.5 v 51.4e - (FR) France Nov Final PMI Services: 55.0 v 55.7e - (GE) Germany Nov Final PMI Services: 59.2 v 58.6e - (EU) Euro Zone Nov Final PMI Services: 55.4 v 55.2e; PMI Composite:55.5 v 55.4e - (SP) Spain Nov Consumer Confidence: 70.0 v 67.1 prior - (UK) Nov PMI Services: 53.2 v 53.2e - (UK) Q3 New Construction Orders Q/Q: -4.0% v -14.0% prior; Y/Y: -14.0% v -9.0% prior - (EU) Euro-Zone Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% - (MA) Malaysia Oct Trade Balance (MYR): 6.9B v 8.0Be v 7.0B prior; Exports Y/Y: +1.3% v -1.4%e; Imports Y/Y: 12.5% v 5.3%e
Fixed Income: - (SA) South Africa bond auction results: Sold total ZAR500M in 2017, 2022 and 2028 indexed linked bonds
Eurostoxx50 at 2790, +0.3%, FTSE at 5771, +0.1%, CAC40 at 3,765, +0.5%, DAX at 6884 unch at6,954
- European equities opened the session lower on mild profit-taking following yesterday's sharp gains and ahead of the US monthly payrolls report. However, as of the time of writing, equities have moved off of the session's worst levels, after the ECB's Nowotny acknowledged that the central bank's bond buying program (SMP) had been "energetic" during the week, which inspired a move up in the Euro. In terms of the European banking sector, most companies are trading higher, adding to the gains seen during the prior session. However, mixed trading has been seen for UK banks, as both Lloyds and Barclays are currently trading in negative territory. Most of the European drug names are trading lower, after the EU Commission announced that it had conducted raids of various pharmaceutical companies on concerns that the firms may have sought to delay the launch of generic drugs. Basic materials names are mostly higher, tracking the weakness in the US dollar. - In specific UK equity movers, companies gaining include Sthree [STHR.UK] (trading update), Burberry [BRBY.UK] (analyst commentary), Chemring [CHG.UK] (analyst commentary) and Berkeley Group [BKG.UK] (earnings). One of the biggest losers in the UK is Promethean World [PRW.UK], which is trading lower by over 30%, following its profit warning. In France, Carrefour [CA.FR] is lower (analyst commentary, credit rating placed on watch negative at Moody's), while STM Microelectronics [STM.FR] is higher (broker upgrade). In Germany, most of the banking and auto sectors are gaining, while Axel Springer [SPR.GE] has been supported by an analyst upgrade. Other gainers in Europe included Adecco [ADEN.SZ] (announced a Chinese jv) and Pharming [PHARM.NV] (received a â‚¬16.1M investment).
Notes/Observations: - China to implement "prudent" monetary policy from "moderately loose'; Maintain "proactive" fiscal policy - China Nov Non-Manufacturing PMI at nine-month low - China PBoC Advisor Xia BinChina should consider adding to gold reserves (currently around 1.9% of its total reserves) - S&P places Greece BB+ long term sovereign rating on Watch Negative - ECB confirms the more aggressive steps in its gov't bond buying program - Optimism over US Non-Farm payroll data
Speakers: - Brazil Central Bank raises reserve requirements for Deposits. It raised Demand Deposits to 12.0% from 8.0% and increased Term Deposit to 20.0% from 15%. The central bank noted that the moves to reduce liquidity by BRL61B - ECB's Trichet stressed that there was NO crisis of the Euro Currency. He reiterated that EU members must take all steps to meet 2011 budget targets. Trichet believed that austerity measures would NOT move the countries in the Euro region into recession. - ECB's Nowotny commented that the global economic conditions were staging a recovery but its rebound could slow in coming months. He reiterated the view that European GDP growth will be uneven and bumpy. He conceded that the region had a set of problem countries due to budgets and Balance of Payments issues. He expected slower GDP growth in Southern Europe in 2011and added that Germany 2011 GDP forecasted at 2.1. He noted that fast economic growth in China was viewed as a positive and not as a threat. - ECB Nowotny confirmed that ECB stepped up its gov't bond buying program and labeled the recent purchases at an 'energetic' pace. He added that the ECB would intervene when imbalances are determined - Germany's Bundesbank released its biannual economic projections with 2011 GDP growth seenat 2.0% with exports remaining the main driver of Germany's growth engine. It did note that risks associated with public finances could increase volatility - Spain Fin Min Salgado reiterated that Spain did not require a bailout as country's fundamentals were good - Hungary Central Bank Gov Simor noted that the MPC had commenced on a tightening cycle as it had concerns over secondary impact on CPI from food prices. He added that the size and timing of next rate increase would be determined by future data - Poland Central Bank Gov Belka commented that a lack of a common EU budget puts the euro's future "in doubt"
Currencies: - Continued improvement in the European peripherals again aided by renewed ECB buying provided the risk appetite theme to continue ahead of the key US employment data. Better EU retail sales data and constructive economic projections from the German Bundesbank all combined for higher stock prices, weaker USD and firmer metal prices. EUR/USD tested one-week highs above the 1.3265 level. ECB's Nowotny confirmed that the ECB gov't bond buying program had been 'energetic' this week and added that the central bank did not have a fixed budget for bond purchases. Dealers noted that the ECB was in again during the European session today adding to its appetite for peripheral debt to calm the markets. - Portugal'S OUTRIGHT 10-year gov't yield at one-month lows below 6.15% level while the peripheral spreads to the 10-year Bunds tightened from the getgo and further aided by renewed round of ECB purchases
Geopolitical/In the papers: - According to the Telegraph, during the financial crisis, British banks borrowed over Â£640 billion from the US Federal Reserve, which equates to approximately one third of the $3.3 trillion lent by the Fed. The report further noted that Barclays borrowed $863 billion, with most of the funds being in the form of overnight loans through the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, though it has since repaid the loans, adding that most of the borrowing was related to the acquisition of Lehman Brothers. In terms of other British banks, Royal Bank of Scotland borrowed $446 billion and HSBC borrowed less than $10B. - The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard noted the ECB rejected calls for it to commit to large purchases of peripheral government bonds amid opposition from Germany. ECB's Trichet said the central bank had not made a decision to increase purchases of peripheral bonds. However, the article did further detail that some traders believed the ECB purchased bonds of some of the weaker EU countries on Thursday. In southern Europe there are concerns that the markets may become worse despite the actions by the ECB unless more is done. With Germany's opposition to the ECB bond purchases, some in the country have renewed calls for Greece, Portugal and Ireland to undergo debt restructuring, under which bond holders would take haircuts.
***Looking Ahead *** - (IN) India to sell INR110B in 2017, 2022 and 2040 Bonds - 7:00 (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: 19.8Ke v 3.0K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.9%e v 7.9% prior - 8:30 (US) Nov Average Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.3e v 34.3 prior - 8:30 (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 150Ke v 151K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: 158Ke v 159K prior; Change in Manufacturing. Payrolls: +5Ke v -7K prior - 8:30 (US) Nov Unemployment Rate: 9.6%e v 9.6% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Consumer Confidence: 90.1e v 89.2 prior - 10:00 (US) Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing: 54.8e v 54.3 prior - 10:00 (US) Oct Factory Orders: -1.2%e v 2.1% prior - 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $6-8B in notes/bonds - 11:15 (FR) French President Sarkozy to meet ECB's Trichet - 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Producer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior - 19:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior - (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
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