***Economic Data*** - (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: +15.2K v +19.8Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 7.9%e - (RU) Russia Nov Consumer Prices M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 8.1% v 8.0%e - (RU) Russia Nov Core CPI M/M: % v 0.8%e; Core CPI YTD: % v 6.2%e v 5.1% prior - (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 39K v 150Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: 50K v 158Ke; Change in Manufacturing. Payrolls: -13K v +5Ke - (US) Nov Unemployment Rate: 9.8% v 9.6%e - (US) Nov Average Hourly Earning M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 v 34.3e - (MX) Mexico Nov Consumer Confidence: 88.5 v 90.1e v 89.2 prior - (US) Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing: 55.0 v 54.8e - (US) Oct Factory Orders: -0.9% v -1.2%e v 2.1% prior
- The accepted narrative heading into this morning's November payrolls report was that the numbers would likely exceed expectations, much like the string of better economic data seen over the last month. This narrative was dead wrong, and both nonfarm and private payrolls registered less than one-third of the consensus estimates. The overall unemployment rate rose and has now reversed half of the improvement recorded in late 2009 and early 2010. With the numbers looking grim markets are reacting markedly calm, and the leading US indices are only down modestly. The measured response comes after indices climbed sharply on the week (the S&P500 was up around 3.5% from Monday's opening level as of Thursday's close). Analysts see the data as a vindication of sorts for Chairman Bernanke's QE2 program, and markets are certainly looking forward to Helicopter Ben's commentary during his scheduled '60 Minutes' appearance on Sunday. The greenback has weakened across the board, with EUR/USD testing 1.3370 at one point this morning. Gold has been a major beneficiary, with the spot contract finally breaking $1,400 earlier in the session. Crude has more or less sustained yesterday's highs, trading around $88. Bond prices surged and yields dropped dramatically with 10 basis point declines or more seen across the curve post jobs data. The benchmark 10-year yield slid nearly 15 basis points and remains below 3% once again but prices are off the best levels of the morning. The 2-10 year yield spread remains just a few ticks from 250 basis points.
- In earnings, Big Lots met expectations in its Q3 report and the forward-looking guidance merely met expectations. Luxury retailer Phillips Van Heusen easily topped the Street in its Q3, although its Q4 earnings outlook was a bit soft. PVH also boosted its full-year 2010 outlook. In a company update, packaging provider Sonoco thoroughly updated its guidance, with a Q4 view that fell short of its outlook from early October due to one-time charges, although it also reiterated its 2010 view. In other equity news, shares of biopharma Orexigen are down more than 11% after FDA staff notes warned that data from trials of the company's obesity drug Contrave are insufficient for determining the product's safety profile. DryShips is up 12% after it said it would sell off $500M in shares of its subsidiary Ocean Rig's common stock in private placement. Clearwire expanded its big debt offering announced yesterday, sending its shares down as much as 2%, although CLWR is back around even mid morning.
- The weaker US payrolls data and higher unemployment rate provided catalyst for the greenback to close out the week on a lower note. USD/JPY managed to hold above the key mid-Sept BoJ post-intervention level of 82.50.
***Looking Ahead*** - (US) Fed to purchase $6-8B in notes/bonds - (FR) French President Sarkozy to meet ECB's Trichet - (CO) Colombia Nov Producer Price Index M/M: % v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.7% prior - (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
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