Thursday April 21, 2005 - 14:30:57 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
FOREX: GLOBAL-VIEW BIWEEKLY SUR:VEY RESULTS
In the latest bi-weekly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar worsened against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2989 from 1.2870 two weeks earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (April 19 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3075.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) remained roughly neutral the EURUSD after the recent change in the spot rate to 40 from 45 previously. The GVI-Cumino index measures the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels as of the time when forecasts were made.
The USDJPY mean dollar forecast worsened to 105.69 from 107.19 two weeks earlier. The USDJPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 106.75. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned more neutral the dollar from current levels from two weeks earlier. It was 43 from 39.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to remain about steady at $52.82 in 3 months from the current spot vs. the previous $55.43 estimate.
In special question, 19% of respondents said they saw fed funds 3.0% or below at year end 2005, 13% saw 3.25%, 27% saw 3.50%, 29% saw 3.75% and 12% saw 4.00% or above. The current target for fed funds is 2.75%.
For complete survey results see:
CLICK TO VIEW
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3mos: spot 1.3073, mean forecast 1.2989
40% (45%) 34% 52% 13% (34% 43% 23%)
Bearish EUR in absolute and relative terms. 10% previous bulls (23% previous
13% actual) moved to the neutral camp. The bearish EUR sentiment continues to
grow, notwithstanding in technical terms long-term supports held and speculative positions are clean. In historical terms 40% is the lowest absolute reading, as well as the meager 13% bullish component.
USD JPY: 3m: spot 106.76, mean forecast 105.69
40% (34%) 29% 64% 8% (36% 60% 4%) Bearish USD in absolute terms, but slightly less bearish than previously. The number of strong bears fell 7%. After three surveys of growing USD bearish sentiment, this is the first cautious change. Comparing the two currency readings is not difficult understanding what could be the EUR/JPY sentiment.
OIL 3m: spot 53.57, mean forecast 52.82
46% (45%) 19% 71% 10% (16% 76% 8%)
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