***Economic Data*** - (CL) Chile Nov Trade Balance: $1.6B v $1.3Be - (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Dec 4th: -2.1% w/w; +2.6% y/y - (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Dec 4th: +3.8% y/y; MTD: +0.6% v Nov - (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.00%, as expected - (US) Dec IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: v 47.2e v 46.7 prior - (UK) Nov NIESR GDP Estimate: 0.06% v 0.5% prior - (EU) ECB drained â‚¬69B vs â‚¬69B Targeted in 7-day Term Deposit Tender
- US equities opened higher this morning after President Obama struck a deal with the Congressional GOP leadership to extend all the Bush tax cuts in exchange for an extension of Federal unemployment payments. Indices have backed off of opening levels though as traders use the tax cut extension to take profits and are also eying rising bond yields. The US 10-year yield has climbed above 3.08% approaching the 200-day simple moving average for the first time since May. The 2-10 year yield spread has risen above 260 basis points. Gold has dropped from the open, after making another new all time high. After testing above $90 for the first time in six months, oil is backed off to trade around $89.
- Another round of guidance calls is in focus this morning. 3M offered an initial look at its FY11, with its earnings range in line with the consensus estimate, while revenue was a bit above par. At a UBS conference, the New York Times Company said advertising revenue was up sequentially in Q4, but warned that visibility was limited moving into the month of December. Circulation revenues are expected to decrease 4 to 5% in the fourth quarter. Fuel Systems cut its full-year revenue guidance considerably, to reflect softer European automotive purchases.
- In earnings, shares of AutoZone jumped 4% in pre-market trading after the firm crushed earnings expectations in its Q1, although revenue was just in line. Shares have traded right back toward the flatline in the first hour, helped along by some cautious rhetoric on the conference call. Women's apparel names Layne Christensen and Talbots are headed in opposite directions in early trading. LAYN is up 7% after the firm roundly beat earnings and revenue targets. TLB is down 22% after warning the firm may dip back into losses in its Q3, with revenue looking a bit soft. Among other big movers, ESLR is down 15% after launching a recapitalization plan and WTFC is down 7% after launching a big share secondary. Citigroup is up 3% after the firm priced a big share secondary designed to raise more funds to pay off the US Treasury.
- The steepening US yield curve helped bring USD/JPY off its Asian session lows of 82.30 to re-approach the 83 handle. The rising risk appetite continued to weaken the greenback against the European and commodity-related pairs. However, EUR/USD continues to encounter resistance above the 1.34 handle, which corresponds near the Dec 3rd US payroll highs. The Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged at 1.00% (as expected) and reiterated that ifuture interest rate increases needed to be carefully considered as significant slack remained in the economy.
***Looking Ahead*** - 10:00 (US) Dec IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.2e v 46.7 prior - 10:00 (UK) Nov NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.5% prior - 11:00 (HU) Hungary Nov YTD Budget Balance (HUF): v -1.1B - 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $6-8B in Notes/Bonds - 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 3-Year Notes - 13:15 (EU) ECB's Constancio speaks in Paris - 15:00 (US) Oct Consumer Credit: -$1.0Be v +$2.1B prior - 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories - 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Dec 5th: No est v -45 prior
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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