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Wednesday December 8, 2010 - 10:55:34 GMT
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| | Email European Market Update: Germany registers another failed auction

Wednesday, December 08, 2010 5:41:31 AM European Market Update: Germany registers another failed auction


***Economic Data***
- (PH) Philippines Oct Bank Lending Y/Y: 8.4% v 10.2% prior
- (PH) Philippines M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.7% v 10.5% prior; Bank Lending Net of RRPs Y/Y: 8.4% v 9.8% prior
- (GE) Germany Oct Current Account: €11.7B v €14.3Be; Trade Balance: €14.2B v €15.1Be; Exports M/M: -1.1% v 0.0%e; Imports M/M: 0.3% v 1.0%e
- (FR) Bank of France Nov Business Sentiment: 107 v 103e
- (FR) France Oct Central Gov't Balance: -€133.1B v -€124.2B prior
- (FR) France Oct Trade Balance: -€-3.4 v -€4.2Be
- (CZ) Czech Nov Unemployment Rate: % v 8.6%e v 8.5% prior
- (TU) Turkey Oct Industrial Production WDA M/M: 3.1`% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 12.8% v 12.8% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 9.8% v 6.4%e
- (CZ) Czech Q3 Current Account: -€3.1B v -€1.3B prior
- (IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) cuts its 7-day Lending rate by 100bps to 4.50%
- (SA) South Africa Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.7% v 1.7%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.2%e
- (GR) Greece Nov Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 4.9 v 5.2% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 4.8 v 5.2% prior

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $60M in 7-day USD liquidity operation at fixed 1.18%
- (GE) Germany sells €4.005B in Dec 2012 Schatz; Avg Yield 0.92% v 0.98% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.1x v 1.4x prior
- (SW) Sweden sells SEK2.5B in 5% 2020 Bonds; avg yield 3.198%


Eurostoxx50 at 2809, +0.25%
, FTSE100 at 5812, +0.08%, CAC40 at 3823, +0.35%, DAX at 7000, -0.02%

- European shares were in positive territory but trading lower after Tuesday's rally at the close. Irish parliament approved its 2011 budget - an outcome that investors had already priced in. The enthusiasm seen in Tuesday's session over the extension of Bush taxes faded as President Obama said he would fight that the cut does not last beyond two years. Also speculation that
China may hike interest rates continues to loom in the market as well as the disappointment in hardening positions and escalating discord at the EU finance ministers summit in Brussels.
Financials remained under pressure despite the modest indices' gains. Among the heaviest decliners were Barclays (-1%), Deutsche Bank (-1.3%),
Santander (-1.3%), BBVA (-1.7%). UK pub stocks also fell in the session. Credit Suisse downgraded UK stocks to Benchmark from Overweight while Guardian reported that the value of pubs had declined by 40% since 2007 peak.
- Stagecoach [SGC.UK] operator of
UK's commuter-rail service, climbed about 1.5% after its interim results. Revenue had increased but came slightly below expectations while pre-tax profit exceeded expectations. Both UK and America's like-for-like sales had increased. Company declared a 10% increase in its interim dividend. Kesa Electrics [KESA.UK] reported an increase in both profit and revenue. Company noted that it was facing a competitive peak trading period in an increasingly uncertain market environment. Shares traded lower by 1% at the open and remain in negative territory. ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] fell about 0.5% after company said it would record a $800M non-cash charge after confirming it would spin off its stainless steel unit, Inox.

- Higher yields aids USD but could stump fragile recovery; Tax cut extension offsets effects of QE2
- North Korea lobs more artillery shells into the waters off South Korea
- Japan Econ Min: Q4 GDP will be sharply lower vs. Q3
- Japan Oct machine orders fell for a second month
- German Debt Agency registers another failed auction
- Germany's Oct exports decline while imports barely rose
- China PBoC Advisor Li Daokui: The USD will be safe for the next 6 to 12 months as focus is on Europe
- Ireland passes its austerity budget

- German Debt Agency commented after the 2-year Schatz bid-to-cover came in at 1.1 times. The agency cited 'skittish' market conditions for the third failed bond auction in Dec. It noted that
Germany had no problem in terms of financing
- China PBoC Advisor Li Daokui commented that is was likely to see commodity prices (including oil) rise sharply in 2011.
China could sustain faster economic growth and forecasted 2011 GDP growth over 9.5%. He did note that high housing prices were a risk to its economy. On currencies the advisor noted that the USD currency was 'safe' for the next year due to the focus on the European debt crisis. However, he noted that the US fiscal situation was worse then that of Europe and once Europe stabilizes the USD and bond prices would decline
- Former Japan MoF official Sakakibara (aka Mr. Yen) commented that the US economy was quite similar to Japan's situation back in the 1990s. He added that the
US faced a lost decade stemming from a balance sheet recession. Overall the global economy was in a structural slump.
- ECB's Liikanen commented that ECB needed to keep its full allotment operations at least through end of Q1 2011
- India Trade Sec: Nov Provisional Trade Balance -$8.9B v -$9.7B prior
- Poland Central Bank Gov Belka: Poland GDP can maintain growth at 4%
- US and South Korea to hold additional joint military exercises as a deterrent to North Korea. The joint statement commented that
North Korea attack on Yeonpyeong was both 'deliberate and illegal'

The USD has benefited from the surge in bond yields and possible from renewed concerns on the
Korean Peninsula. The extension of the Bush-era tax cuts prompted numerous economists to rise higher their GDP forecasts for 2011 thus curtailing effect on the Fed's recent launch of QE2. The USD has now recovered all of its initial losses incurred against the Euro since the disappointing nonfarm payroll data from Dec 3rd. Sovereign names appeared to take advantage of the EUR/USD dip below the 1.32 handle in the session for reserve diversification purposes. The low bid-to-cover in the German 2-year Schatz auction highlighted another tepid auction with dealers hoping that it has more to do with end of the year issues. The German Debt Agency blamed 'skittish' market conditions for the third failed auction result in December. The peripheral situation was relatively quiet in the session but dealer chatter took notice of the widening of Spain's Santander [SAN.SP] Credit Default Swap. As the NY morning approached the EUR/USD regained th bulk of its earlier losses to trade around 1.3235
- The USD/JPY pair touched the 84 handle again aided by rising tension in the
Korean Peninsula and the surge in the US yield.

Geopolitical/In the papers:
- The Irish budget narrowly passed a key initial vote through the lower house of parliament. Given the structure of the budget votes in 'packages', three more votes are to follow in the next few days, which if approved, will allow the release of the first tranche of the €67.5 billion aid package by the EU/IMF. The IMF has scheduled a Friday meeting to discuss the approval of the first loan disbursement of €22.5 billion.
- The Italian Senate passed final the 2011 budget plan, approving €25 billion in budget cuts over two years. This follows the budget approval by the lower house on the 19th of November. Note, as a result of the final budget approval, Prime Minister Berlusconi will now face a no-confidence vote, which is to be held in both houses of parliament on the 14th of December.
- According to the Telegraph, the British government is considering revising rules related to pension payments which could help lower pension deficits. Officials there could allow businesses to link pension payments to the consumer price index (CPI) as opposed to the retail price index (RPI), which could help lower the estimated pension deficits of £239 billion by as much as £100 billion.

***Looking Ahead ***
- 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic sells CZK6B in 3.4% Sept 2015 Bonds
- 6:00 (RU) Russia sells RUB vs. RUB12.3B in OFZ Bonds
- 6:00 (PD) Poland to sell Bonds
- 6:00 (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.9%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 5.7%e v 5.2% prior
- 6:00 (GE) Germany Oct Industrial Production M/M: 1.0%e v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 10.0%e v 7.9% prior
- 6:00 (UK) Dec CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -13e v -15 prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Dec 3rd: No est v -16.5% prior
- 7:30 (IC) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 8:00 (HU) Hungarian Central Bank's Minutes
- 8:00 (RU) Russia to sell up to RUB5.9B in OFZ Bonds
- 8:15 (CA) Canada Nov Housing Starts: 173.0Ke v 167.9K prior
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.5% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prelim
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Final Trade Balance: No est v -$560M prelim
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE energy inventories: Crude:-1.2Me; Gasoline: +250Ke; Distillate: -600Ke; Utilization: 83.5%e
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1-2B in TIPS
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes reopening
- 15:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest rate Decision: Expected to maintain the Current Official Cash Rate at 3.00%
- (BZ) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leaves the SELIC Target Unchanged at 10.75%




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