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TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: ECB comments that rising unemployment was a cause for structural concerns

Thursday, December 09, 2010 5:47:59 AM

 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: ECB comments that rising unemployment was a cause for structural concerns

 

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Nov Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 104.2% v 71.0% prior
- (FR) France Q3 Final Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior
- (IN) India Primary Articles WPI Y/Y: 12.7% v 12.7% prior; Food WPI Y/Y: 8.7% v 8.6% prior
- (FI) Finland Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 2.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.7% v 4.9% prior
- (GE) Germany Nov Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (GE) Germany Nov Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (UK) Nov Halifax House Price M/M:-0.1% v -0.3%e; 3M/Y: -0.7% v -0.7%e
- (CZ) Czech Nov CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9%e
- (CZ) Czech Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.0% v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.0% prelim
- (HU) Hungary Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: €408.1M v €488.5Me
- (HU)Hungary Q3 Final GDP Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6% prelim
- (SA) South Africa Q3 Current Account (ZAR): -79.2Bv -86.3Be v -66.9B prior; C/A to GDP Ratio: -3.0% v -3.2%e v -2.5% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Dec 3rd: $481.5B v $484.6B prior
- (DE) Denmark Oct Current Account (DKK): 9.9B v 7.0Be; Trade Balance Ex-Shipping: 5.7B v 5.0Be
- (NV) Netherlands Nov CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.4%e
- (NV) Netherlands Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (SW) Sweden Nov Headline CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e; CPI Level: 306.58 v 306.50
- (SW) Sweden Nov Underlying CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e
- (SA) South Africa Oct Mining Production: 5.6% v 12.1% prior; Annual Gold Production: -1.5% v -4.7% prior
- (SA) South Africa Nov SACCI Business Confidence: 87.0 v 85.9 prior
- (UK) Oct Visible Trade Balance -£8.5B v -£8.1Be; Total Trade Balance: -£4.0B v -£4.5Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£5.0B v -£4.5Be
- (GR) Greece Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: -1.3% v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: -4.6% v -4.5% prelim
- (GR) Greece Sept Unemployment Rate: 12.6% v 12.2% prior

- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 1.6% v 1.5%e

Fixed Income:
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sell HUF40B vs HUF40B Targeted in 12-Month Bills; avg yield 6.10% v 6.05% prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Equities:

Eurostoxx50 at 2831, +0.44%,
FTSE100 at 5808, +0.23%, CAC40 at 3843, +0.30%, DAX at 6962, -0.19%

- European shares rallied today taking the cue from Asian equities which were boosted by positive employment data from Australia and a stronger-than-estimated growth in Japan. Recovery mode is on but investors remain cautious anticipating a surprise rate hike from China especially after the PBoC cancelled its 3-year bonds auction scheduled on Thursday. Investors are also expecting unemployment data from the US which will be released during the NY morning. Basic resources were the biggest gainers followed by the financial sector.

- Standard Chartered [STAN.UK] was lower by over 1% following its trading update. The next six months are expected to be flat compared to the prior 6 months while net interest margin had declined on a yearly basis. During follow-up comments, management said that financial markets in Q4 would be slightly softer than in Q3. ASML Holding [ASML.NV] rallied by 7.5% after raising its Q4 bookings guidance, expecting €2B from €1.3B prior. Aker Solutions [AKSO.NO] also rose after announcing it would create three separate companies, separating its construction units to focus on oil and engineering business. Hochtief [HOT.GE] traded higher as it defends itself against ACS's takeover bid. In fact, FTD reported that Qatar Holding will become its major shareholder raising its holdings above the 9% stake.

Notes/Observations:
- Uptick in China's benchmark government bond yields renews rate hike jitters
- Strong Australian jobs data and an upward revision in Japan Q3 GDP


Speakers:
- ECB Monthly report commented that rising unemployment was a cause for concern and would require effective policy response in order to avoid a persistent increase in structural unemployment,. The report otherwise mirrored the Trichet press conference from Dec 2nd.
- India Central Bank Gov Subbarao commented that global commodity prices were making inflation management difficult and that the RBI would review its inflation figures in January. Interestingly he added that the central bank would take some liquidity easing measures as necessary
- Japan Vice Fin Min Sakurai commented that he was closely watching movements in long-term interest rates but did not see any immediate impact on Japan's fiscal situation from the recent rise in rates. He added that Japan's long-term rates were not high compared to other countries
- China Finance Ministry researcher Su Ming stated that he believed China needed a larger fiscal deficit in 2011. Expected 2010 central government fiscal deficit to rise to CNY1Tfrom CNY95B y/y
- EU Rehn commented that: Ecofin were "favorable" towards extending the Greece loan repayment schedule

Currencies:
- Any risk appetite that ensured from the stronger Australian employment numbers during Asia failed to gain traction during the European morning. The EUR/USD pair saw all of its initial gains evaporate as the session progressed. After opening above 1.33 the EUR/USD pair probed the 1.3200. A slight widening of the peripheral debt compounded by Greek final Q3 GDP figures being revised lower did not help the sentiment. Renewed chatter that China could raise its interest rates over the weekend had some players favor squared positions over fresh punts, especially as liquidity thins ahead of year-end.
- The USD/JPY continues to consolidate just under the 84 handle. Dealers commented that the recent rise in US interest rates should have the pair a few big figure higher given its high correlation in the pair.

Geopolitical/In the papers:
- There were reports today in Asia that China and North Korea have reached a consensus regarding the situation in Korean peninsula. This follows earlier rumors that top Chinese diplomats were in North Korea to meet with Kim Jong Il. Yesterday, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mullen commented that China had a unique influence and responsibility towards North Korea and should step up its action.
- According to the Irish Times, the Irish general election may be pushed back to at least March due party disagreements in the cabinet. Prior to the release of Ireland's 2011 budget outlook, the Green party in a press conference had stated that the general election date should be set for late January.
- The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard made comments on the rise in US yields following plans by government to extend tax cuts. Citing an analyst at HSBC, he noted that it is hard to discern what is driving the rise in yields. The higher yields could be a reflection of expectations for higher US growth or concerns about the government's policy. He also notes that HSBC added that concerns about the sustainability of US government policy could increase in the second half of 2011 if Europe starts to stabilize. According to BNP the tax cuts amount to $1 trillion in stimulus over two years and may push the US' gross public debt to 110% of GDP.
- A report in the London Times said the UK Chancellor is expected today to announce a £3.2 billion British loan to Ireland over a 5-year period (in line). The loan may carry an interest rate of about 6%. Please note that Ireland had reached a formal agreement with EU/IMF on an €85B bailout package. The loan will include a 5.8% blended interest rate with an average maturity of 7-years.

***Looking Ahead ***
- (PO) Portugal Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
- (PO) Portugal Oct Trade Balance: No est v -€1.5B prior
- 6:00 (BR) Brazil Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.4%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.8%e v 8.8% prior; Four Quarters Accumulated: No est v 5.1% prior
- 6:00 (IR) Ireland Nov CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.7% prior
- 6:00 (IR) Ireland Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2 %e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.5%e v- 0.8% prior
- 6:00 (SA) South Africa Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.4% prior
- 6:20 (UK) Bank of England's Bailey speaks in London
- 7:00 (UK) BOE Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leaves Interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and maintain the Asset Purchase Target (APT) at £200B
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Oct New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%et v 0.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 427Ke v 436K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.28Me v 4.27M prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Wholesale Inventories: 0.9%e v 1.5% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Consumer Prices M/M: 0.8%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 4.0% prior; Core CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada publishes Financial System Review
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $7-9B in Notes/Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year bonds reopening
- (CH) China Nov Trade Balance: $21.0Be v $27.2B prior

 

 

 

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