Friday December 10, 2010 - 03:47:44 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 10-Dec-2010 -0339 GMT
US markets closed flat with Dow (11,370) down 0.02% and S&P 500 (1233) up 0.40%. With year end approaching, volumes are getting thinner and with little economic date out today market will be guided by what happens to dollar. Dow has immediate support around 11,300 and then around 11,200 and resistance around 11,450-500. Trend remains firm as long as Dow can stay above 10,900.
Asian markets are in the red with Hangseng (22,997) down 0.75%, Nikkei (10,242) down 0.43%, Shanghai flat at 2943 and Kospi at 1983 down 0.30%. Chinese rate hike fears are dominating the mood in Asia as indicators show property prices continue to increase at a robust pace in mainland China. Yesterday Nifty closed at 5766 down 2.32%. Nifty having broken below 5900 is now vulnerable to further setback towards 5600-5650. However, very strong cluster of support exists between 5500-5600 and we would be watching carefully whether they hold or not.
Crude (88.46) closed slightly higher yesterday. The better US inital jobless claims and a rise in gasoline prices supported Crude. The immediate Support at 87 is holding very well and is retaining the bullish sentiment for a rise towards 93-95. However, the market is cautious as China might increase its interest rates. The OPEC meet is scheduled for this weekend and is expected to leave the supplies unchanged.
Gold (1388.90) is trading above its Support at 1380 with less upside momentum. Resistance is seen in 1400-15 region a break above which will have to be seen for a sharp rise further. While below 1400 there are chances of a dip to 1350 in the coming days.
Silver, spot (28.88) has risen well from Wednesday's low of 27.98. However, much strength is not seen in its bounce back move. Resistance is seen in 29.25-40 region a strong break above which will have to be see for further upmove. While below the 29.25-40 Resistance region we see chances of a downmove towards 27.50-00 in the coming days.
In the near term, the Euro (1.3243) is flat. The Pound (1.5776) is flat with a bit of a bullish bias. Dollar-Swiss (0.9828) has come off after failing to rise past 0.9885. The Aussie is flat with a bit of a bullish bias. Dollar-Yen (83.72) is in corrective mode after its rise to 84.30 on Wednesday.
Overall, the Dollar Index (80.02) is consolidating above key Support at 79.50-00. A Day Close above 80.00 would give greater strength to the Dollar. However, there can be chances of some deeper dip/ profit-taking on Dollar Longs that may have been taken when the Dollar Index was trading just above 76.00 at the beginning of November.
At the moment, the market is caught between the European debt situation on the one side and the prospects of Dollar debasement on the other side. If we see a dip towards 78.00-77.50 by Christmas, that might make the Dollar an attractive Buy when the New Year rolls in.
Among the Emerging currencies, the Won (1135.80) and the Sing Dollar (1.3088) are trading relatively stronger, while the Brazilian Real (1.7036) is trading weaker. Dollar-Rupee had closed higher at 45.2150 yesterday, but could dip a bit towards 45.00 if the Equity market shows a small relief rally.
US 10 year yields are trading at 3.19%, down 8.6 bps. The USD 13 billion 30 Year auction is was well received as the bid to cover ratio was highest in last 4 months.10 year treasury yields are hovering around resistance of 3.30% and we continue to expect the yields to remain capped for some time. USD 3 month Libor is unchanged at 30 bps.Indian 10 year benchmarks gained 1 bps to close at 8.12%. RBI bought back 100 billion rupees of bond yesterday, more or less in line with the 100-120 billion expectation. At the same time RBI has hinted at more measures to ease liquidity crunch. Liquidity situation could get acute next week when 550-600 billion rupees of advance tax outflows. We are seeing banks borrow over 1 trillion rupees under the LAF window of RBI to meet cash needs, which is a lot more than 500-600 billion borrowed during normal market conditions. RBI has allowed banks uptill next month to borrow additional 2% of NDTL (net demand and time liabilities). At the same time Banks are hiking the CD and deposit rates to garner more deposits ahead of the large outflows over the next few weeks. With no further bond buy back plan in the pipeline we could see short term rates stay at elevated levels in the near future. However, we expect 10 year bonds yields to stay capped around 8.15-8.20 as higher yields are seeing buyers, both foreign and local step in.
09:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q2 '10
...Previous EUR -23.1 bln
09:00 GMT EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services
...Previous EUR 11.9 bln
09:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP
13:30 GMT US Oct Trade Balance
...Expected $ -43.5 Bln...Previous $ -44.0 Bln
JP GDP QoQ (2nd Pre)
...Actual 1.1%...Previous 0.9%
Nov Australia Labour Force
...Actual 54.6K...Previous 29.7K
...Actual 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
UK Oct Trade Balance
...Actual $ -8.5 Bln...Previous $ -8.4 Bln
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