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Friday April 22, 2005 - 01:43:48 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 22nd April 2005

Price: 106.79

Resistance: 107.10 ... 107.28 ... 107.47 ... 107.70
Support....: 106.65 ... 106.40 ... 106.26 ... 105.82

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks but with a slight bearish bias

Bullish: The 107.47 are still represents the level to break to give the Dollar a lift here. At the moment we appear to be in a consolidation and this could mean that 106.65-75 may hold and cause a return to the 107.25-33 area. If this first resistance breaks it is then more likely that we shall see a retest of 107.47 but only a clean break there will trigger a recovery back to 108.05 and probably back to the 108.55 area.

Bearish: We still see 107.47 as the key resistance but we may just see no higher than 107.25-33 and if this occurs over the next few hours we will probably see continued ranging but would put the bias slightly in favor of further losses. Thus below 106.56-65 would then imply losses down to 106.26 and then the 105.82 level with stronger support at 105.60-64.



Elliott Wave Comments:

21st April 2005

While the bullish wave structure shown in the 8-hour chart has not broken down completely we have found the structure of the decline from 108.88 - and mostly from the 108.55 corrective high most difficult to assess. We should still watch the 50% retracement level at 106.26 but if this breaks we have to start thinking of the alternative structure. If this occurs then we'd have to count the low at 107.50 (marked as Wave c) to be a Wave -i- with the 108.55 high (marked as Wave x) as Wave -ii- and thus we'd look for a decline to a 138.2% projection at 105.60-65 to complete Wave -iii- then look for a Wave-iv- and then Wave -v- lower.

22nd April 2005

We have egun to consider alternative scenarios and we place a tentative count below in blue. This would count the 108.88 high as then end of Wave (c) from 101.67. This could either imply a Wave (i) higher and thus we are retracing in Wave (ii) or it is part of a larger complex correction. For the moment we need to see how far the decline develops and in what structure to gain better insight as to exactly what we are seeing. We shall update the daily chart over the weekend.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005

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