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Monday December 13, 2010 - 03:54:39 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 13-Dec-2010 -0339 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Equities were up in a relatively calm session last week. The Dow (11410.32) was up 0.25% and the S&P 500 (1240.40) was up 1.25%. The Dow is looking strong, though it may face some Resistance near 11450, a break above which may take it towards 12000 in the coming days / weeks. Overall, we do not see a major downside on the markets while above 10950-00.

The Asians are in Green today. The Nikkei (10226.64, up 0.14%) is up followed by strength of steel makers and the Shanghai (2874.16, up 1.17%) is up after a satisfaction that the Central Bank is not raising rates further. In India, the Sensex (19508.89, down 2.29%) and the Nifty (5857.35, down 2.26%) closed lower last week. The Sensex may move up further while above 19000-18800 in the coming weeks.

COMMODITIES
Crude (87.99) is trading lower just below 88. China's move to increase its banks' reserve ratio pulled down the price from Friday's high of 89.00. Though the broader picture is still bullish for a rise towards 93-95, we might see a dip towards 85 before further rise. The OPEC has left its supplies unchanged as expected in its meet on Saturday.

Gold (1385.40) is oscillating near its Support in 1380-70 region. China's move to increase its banks' reserve ratio is keeping the price pressured on the downside. While below 1400 there are chances of testing 1350 in the coming days.

Silver, spot (28.89) is ranged between 28.00-29.00 over the last few days. As mentioned earlier, Resistance is seen in 29.25-40 region a strong break above which will have to be see for further upmove. While below the 29.25-40 Resistance region, we see chances of a downmove towards 27.50-00 in the coming days on a break below the Support at 28.00.


CURRENCIES
Decently strong opening for the Dollar today, not dramatic but holding onto Friday's gains. The Dollar Index (80.20) has found Support all through last week and should be bullish overall while above 78-77.

The Euro (1.3194) and the Yen (83.96) seem to be the weakest against the Dollar. Following them is the Aussie (0.9843) which is testing a shor-term Support just now and is looking bearish, if anything. Dollar-Swiss (0.9831) may also tend to rise after its fall from 1.0066 (01-Dec) was broken at 0.9725 (06-Dec).

Perhaps the only Major currency that is relatively strong against the Dollar is the Pound (1.5789), which is holding onto its upmove from 1.5484 that sarted on 30-Nov. But, the Pound also faces a crucial Resistance near current levels, which could limit its rise.

The talk in the market is about a new proposal for a pan-European Bond, instead of individual country bonds. Although this is the logical, natural progression for the Euro (if it is to survive), getting there is not easy (obviously, with Germany opposed to it). Further, the extension of the Bush tax cuts in the USA is seen as Dollar-positive. Lastly, fears of a Chinese rate hike are spooking the Aussie.

A bit of divergent trend in the Emerging currencies today, with the Won trading weaker near 1146.50 and the Sing Dollar trading a little stronger near 1.3075. The Brazilian Real (1.7050) seems to be stabilising a bit after having weakened last week. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 45.05 on Friday. It might be worth buying on the dip today.


INTEREST RATES
US 3 month libor was unchanged at 30 bps. However, US 10 year yields are back above 3.30% and is currently quoting 3.34%, up over 15 bps in last 24 trading hours. FOMC meeting is scheduled for tomorrow and market is hoping for another cheque from helicopter Ben for purchase of treasuries. It is ironical that on 5th November, a day after the QE 2, when the fed chairman promised to buy more bonds, US long dated treasuries topped out. Long end of the yield curve, unlike the shorter end is market driven and when the inflationary expectation increases it starts to show on the long end . Therefore, a fast rising yields is a warning that all these dollar being printed are a pouring into the assets marets globally like commodities, which will cause major inflationary problems down the road. Such an outcome is neither good for the fedgling state of US recovery and also roaring emerging nations.

Indian 10 year benchmark yield declined further to close at 8.09%. However, stress continue to build in the money markets as banks are being forced to borrow over INR 1 trillion daily from the RBI. This week close to INR 500 billion will be sucked out of the system in lieu of advance tax and as a result we expect further upward presure on short term commercial rates. We are seeing the public sectors banks hike deposit rates to mop up deposits. Over the last 11 months deposit growth has been INR 5.88 triliion as againt a credit growth of INR 6.58 trillion. At the same time, telecom auction, GOI borrowing and divestment of PSUs have drained signficant amount of liquidity from the system. RBI has limited options as cut in CRR in ruled out and FX intervention is not a favourable option with dollar on the bid.

DATA TODAY
No major data release today


FRIDAY'S DATA
EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q3 '10
...Actual -16.5 Bln...Previous EUR -23.1 bln

EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services
...Actual EUR 9.8 bln...Previous EUR 11.9 bln

EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP
...Actual -0.7%...Previous -1.0%

US Oct Trade Balance
...Actual $ -38.7 Bln...Previous $ -44.6 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ustrbal.shtml

 

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