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Friday April 22, 2005 - 12:36:27 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts - Evening - 22/04/05.......1209 GMT

Aussie @ 0.7794/9....Range Resistance at 0.7810
-------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7797-0.7806 / 0.7820-23
S: 0.7764-60 / 0.7739-0.7712 / 0.7680
The Aussie is trading in a sideways range between 0.7810 and 0.7635. Since it is now at the upper end of its range there are chances that it will fall back to 0.7716 and lower next week. Of course, it has to remain below 0.7825 for the view to materialise.

Order:
Sell AUD 30K at 0.7803, SL 0.7833, TP 0.7750


Euro @ 1.3068/71....Range 1.3020-3100
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.3093-1.3101 / 1.3128 / 1.3179
S: 1.3059 / 1.3030-17 / 1.2990-81
The Euro has bounced up from 1.3020 and is probably going to be in a range of 1.3020-3100 for the rest of the day. In case it closes strong near 1.31, there may be chances of a further rise towards 1.3130+ next week. In case of a Day Close near 1.3020, there could be a further fall towards 1.2970.


$-Yen @ 106.28/32.....May test 105.87 also
------------------------------------------
R: 106.45 / 106.82-107.02 / 107.18-38
S: 106.20-18 / 105.96-87 / 105.67
Big fall since the morning. Immediate Support at 106.18...may be broken for test of deeper and stronger Support at 105.96-87. We've missed the move and don't want to chase the market now. We'll wait to see how the market behaves at 105.96-87.


Euro-Yen @ 138.93/98.....Watch Support at 138.70
-------------------------------------------------
R: 139.00-139.11 / 139.18-34 / 139.47-69
S: 138.36 / 138.07-137.95 / 137.62
Today's fall to 138.73 has brought the Cross down to its range/ consolidation Support on the Daily Candles. If it holds, there would be chances of a swing back up to 140 again next week. In case this Support breaks, a fall to 138.08-137.95 can occur.


$-Swiss @ 1.1806/11....Indecisive between 1.1740-1860
-------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1848-59 / 1.1903-24
S: 1.1790 / 1.1739-29 / 1.1699
Within the overall indecisiveness between 1.1740-1.1860, the market could narrow down further between 1.1790-1.1845 for the next 4-8 hours. In case the 1.1740 Support breaks, the Dollar would be vulnerable to a fall to 1.1590 next week. On the other hand, there could also be strong bargain Dollar buying at 1.1751.

There seem to be many possibilities at the moment, all with similar probabilities. Hence, there is no incentive to trade.


Cable @ 1.9143/8....Indecisive, staying out
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.9190-1.9201 / 1.9223 / 1.9289-1.9309
S: 1.9137-36 / 1.9106 / 1.9060-50
As it turns out, the Cable has risen up to 1.9169 (and our Short at 1.9120 has been stopped out at 1.9145). Now, either there will be a fresh big fall from here, or the market could spend time between 1.91 and 1.92, frustrating both Bulls and Bears over today-Monday.

The market looks indecisive and we prefer to stay out.


Happy Trading!

 

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