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Tuesday April 27, 2004 - 13:56:31 GMT
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GVI -- Morning Daily Strategy Session

It seems that the markets are looking for some direction at the moment. The intensity of feeling about a 25bp hike in the Fed Funds rate in August is not going to be enough for the next 3-1/2 months. Besides the markets are going to require some confirmation that the +308K increase in March jobs was for real. The next employment release comes on May 7 and early street estimates have been for an increase of 175-200,000. Today’s data, March Existing Home Sales and the CB Consumer Confidence Index will be viewed in that light. The 1Q04 GDP report from the U.S. on Thursday could also be key with real growth of 5% or so widely anticipated.

European Parliamentary testimony by Trichet today has done nothing to encourage speculation about an ECB rate cut. I hear a lot of talk about a mid-year rate cut, but have seen absolutely no evidence that the markets feel that such is a credible risk. Eurozone April CPI is due on Friday. A yr/yr rise of 1.7-1.8% is expected. That would be precisely in line with the bank’s “below 2%” target. The FT reports today about the ECB governing council that of the 18 members, 8 have recently offered the view that Eurozone interest rates are at least neutral or appropriate and three others have said the Eurozone will experience a gradual recovery. Thus more than half the members seem to be happy with leaving rates where they are.

There is a lot more intensity to expectations for BOE policy. The markets are set up for rate hikes of 100 bp’s over the next year and these expectations should sustain sterling for those looking for longer term carry trades. Also don’t forget that the SNB has been preparing the markets for its departure from an ultra-easy monetary policy as well.

Wednesday sees the release of Australia’s 1Q04 CPI at 01:30 GMT. The Reserve Bank targets headline CPI at 2-3% in the medium term. Street forecasts are for a rise of about 0.7% in the quarter or +1.8% yr/yr. The recent cooling of the overheated housing sector and below target CPI growth should keep the Reserve Bank on the sidelines for a while.

We have no good explanation for the sudden yen move a short while ago. It might just have been stops, but a reason should surface over the NY morning. Trade in Japan will slow starting Thursday as the Golden Week holidays begin and last through the following Wednesday. The Bank of Japan will meet on Wednesday. No policy changes are widely anticipated. Of greater interest will be the semiannual BOJ’s FY 2004 CPI forecasts. The BOJ will not back off from its ultra-easy monetary policy until yr/yr CPI turns positive. It was reported a week or so ago that its CPI forecast would remain barely negative.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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