Wednesday June 2, 2004 - 23:35:40 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Forecast for USDJPY 3rd June 2004Price: 109.80
Resistance: 110.35 ... 110.80 ... 111.00 ... 111.30
Support....: 109.75 ... 109.45 ... 109.25 ... 109.02
On cue we have seen the 111.00 level hold and from there a decline down to 110.77 as of writing. The 109.75 area looks important and we favor this holding to generate the next leg higher in the current uptrend. We need to see first resistance at 110.05 broken and then 110.35. Once this is seen we will expect to see gains rally through 111.00 and onto 112.30-40 which should see a temporary cap.
As suggested yesterday we have seen the decline down to 110.00 and just below to 109.77 as of writing. We are bullish but the 109.75 area looks important and while this and 109.45 holds we will hold back fromany bearish stance. Thus only on a break below 109.45 and then 109.20 would we look for a spike down to 108.70. Further support is at 108.30.
Elliott Wave Comment:
Although we are disappointed that our ideal target for this retracement at 109.90 was breached we have seen good relationships in the new count shown below which identifies the 108.70-00 area as a good stalling point for Wave [iv]. This represents a 61.8% retracement of the Wave [iii] rally and while deep does not break the pattern. Given that 109.02 did indeed provide the low for Wave [iv] this would imply a quick move back to 113.30 (watch the prior broken uptrend line now at 112.10 and rising) under Elliott guidelines as the intervening Wave B. Following a correction from there look for Wave [v] to rally to 116.10 minimum and probably 117.75
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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