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Thursday April 28, 2005 - 12:44:38 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts - Evening - 28/04/05.......1225 GMT

Euro @ 1.2915/8....Vulnerable to fall?
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2927 / 1.2946-65-75 / 1.3011-31
S: 1.2902 / 1.2894-73 / 1.2852-32 / 1.2800
There has been no movement since the morning, but EURUSD could be vulnerable on the downside given the fall in EURJPY and EURGBP during the day. A decisive break of the 1.2902 Support could lead to a fall to 1.2854. On the other hand, while the 1.2902 Support continues to hold, there could be chances of a bounce to 1.2950-60 as well. Pressed for a choice we'd prefer the downside, given the layers of Resistances overhead.


$-Yen @ 105.89/94....Buy on dip, if seen
-----------------------------------------
R: 106.03 / 106.23-29 / 106.44-51
S: 105.75 / 105.50-40 / 105.25
The market has been stable so far today. If the immediate support at 105.75 breaks a fall to 105.40 may also be seen .While it holds, the market could remain ranged between 106.25-105.75 for today. Question is, can there be a bounce from 105.40-50 if the market drops to that level. The Trend Support coming up from 101.68 on the Daily Candles provides Support.

Order:
Buy $ 25K at 105.53, SL 105.22, TP 106.05


Euro-Yen @ 136.64/9....No trades/ orders
-------------------------------------------
R: 137.04 / 137.27-35 / 137.52
S: 136.53-48 / 136.14 / 135.81
The Cross is continuing to see selling pressure and may test the 136.53-48 Support region (statistically projected Max Low over today-tomorrow). In case that Support also breaks, a further fall towards 136.00-135.80 may be in order.

But, NOTE that 136.62 is the 200-day MA on the Cross. The whole question is, will the market slice through it, or bounce from it? The next question is, would we want to sell into a decline, or not?

The answer is not easy to find, so we'll avoid the temptation to trade. No trades/ orders


$-Swiss @ 1.1930/5.....Range 1.1870-1970
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.1945-67 / 1.1990 / 1.2026
S: 1.1911-1.1899 / 1.1880 / 1.1863-49
So far the pair has been trading narrowly between 1.1940-1.1900. In case it breaks 1.1940 the upside would still be capped at 1.1952-67 levels. While the resistances hold we might see it fall back to 1.1870 (a strong support level on the down side). With this we expect range 1.1870-1.1970 to continue to hold for now.


Cable @ 1.9052/7....Ranged. But EURGBP is bearish
--------------------------------------------------
R: 1.9067 / 1.9107 / 1.9136
S: 1.9044-35 / 1.8989 / 1.8977-50
The cable continues to remain within the previous day’s range of 1.9100-1.8988. There is a bearish bias towards 1.8965 while the Resistance at 1.9100-30 holds. On the other hand, the market could become bullish in case of a rise past 1.9130. Which side will be favoured is difficult to say right now.

The big story for Pound is probably the continued fall in EURGBP, which threatens to fall to 0.6725-6700 in the next few days, as compared to the current level of 0.6775.


Happy Trading!

 

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