Sunday May 1, 2005 - 07:52:10 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 2nd May 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.9080 ... 1.9102 ... 1.9135 ... 1.9160
Support....: 1.9053 ... 1.9028 ... 1.9012 ... 1.8987
While a dip to 1.9012-28 is possible we then look for a pullback
While we did see a break above 1.9103 this failed to reach 1.9173 and instead saw losses to 1.9053. This does tend to create a more bearish outlook overall but we feel that today should see any further losses limited to 1.9028 and maximum 1.9012. From this support area we feel a recovery is more likely and any break above 1.9080 would assist a correction back to the 1.9130-40 area which we feel should cap. Thus a more bullish stance is only valid on a break above 1.9140 and then 1.9160 but would then imply a move back to test the 1.9215 high.
The reversal from 1.9159 appears to give a more bearish outlook overall. However, for today we doubt there will be much follow-through and should be limited to the 1.9012-28 area. Thus a more bearish stance is only valid on a break below 1.9010-12 which would generate further losses down to 1.8936 at least. Further support is found at 1.8880 and 1.8829.
Elliott Wave Comments:
28th April 2005
The sharp recovery from 1.8987 failed to allow any Wave iii target to be reached and thus we need to review the pattern. We would still like to think that the 1.9215 level provided the cap for Wave ^c but this would require the 1.9173 corrective high to remain in tact and at most the 1.9215 high.
Thus with our general Dollar bearish view we must acknowledge the risk of a larger daily triangle that would imply gains above 1.9215 anf then above 1.9323 to signal a move to the 1.9373-1.9404 area at least. However, while 1.9173-1.9215 caps and a move is seen below 1.8987 we would then look for a multiple ABC pattern lower in Wave ^d.
2nd May 2005
The 1.9173 level has not been breached and this appears to suggest that Friday's high at 1.9159 can be labled as Wave x and thus we look for a further ABC pattern lower. Overall this should keep the pattern intact and suggest a Wave ^d low between 1.8760 (which marks the final Wave b in the rally to 1.9215) and also at the 66.67% projection at 1.8726.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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