Wednesday May 4, 2005 - 01:34:09 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 4th May 2005 Price:
Resistance: 105.12 ... 105.40 ... 105.66 ... 105.97
Support....: 104.61 ... 104.27 ... 104.07 ... 103.80
Mixed - waiting for breaks
Frustratingly we saw both sides of the 104.89-105.20 range broken with failure to follow-through and the uncertain wave structure continues. We have a mild bias in favor of the upside but observe two factors that need to confirm this. Firstly we note the downtrend line on FXS-RSI, break of which could imply a break higher. However, when this type of situation occurs we should also require a breach of resistance. Thus, with the trend line break we need a break of the 105.25-35 area but if seen this combination should trigger gains to the 105.66-97 area which should cap. Further resistance is found at 106.27-39 & 106.60.
Minor breach seen of 104.89 with 104.82 holding on this morning's dip. If this slips any further we see support at 104.60 and to trigger further losses we shall need to see break of this level which will then take price down to 104.07-27 at least. Further support is seen at 103.64-80.
Elliott Wave Comments:
4th May 2005
The decline from 108.88 has not yet been broken with both highs and lows still declining. We tentatively label the 104.59 low as Wave a and thus we are in the process of mapping out Wave b. It could be that it has been completed but we should allow for a pullback to the 105.66-97 area which should cap and cause losses back down to 104.07 at least and we should allow for a dip as far as 103.60-64. However, we do feel that we are coming close to the low here.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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