Thursday May 5, 2005 - 00:47:33 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 5th May 2005 Price:
Resistance: 104.76 ... 105.15 ... 105.39 ... 105.54
Support....: 104.34 ... 104.07 ... 103.80 ... 103.64
Mixed - waiting for breaks - but with a bullish preference
With the dip into the 104.07-28 area we need to be aware of the risk that a major low has been seen. First indication of this will be a break above 104.76 which should trigger gains to the 105.15 level at least and this is where a stronger break is implied. Above 105.15 would allow gains to follow-through to 105.39 but this should hold on first test. Next resistance is at 105.86 & 106.39.
With the decline reaching the 104.07-28 support area we need to be aware of the risk that the major low has now been seen. However, until the 105.15 level is breached we should acknowledge the risk of final dip to the 103.60-80 area. First sign of this would be breach of 104.34 and then the 104.18 low which should then allow a spike down to the 103.60-80 support. This should hold else expect a move to 103.25.
Elliott Wave Comments:
4th May 2005
The decline from 108.88 has not yet been broken with both highs and lows still declining. We tentatively label the 104.59 low as Wave a and thus we are in the process of mapping out Wave b. It could be that it has been completed but we should allow for a pullback to the 105.66-97 area which should cap and cause losses back down to 104.07 at least and we should allow for a dip as far as 103.60-64. However, we do feel that we are coming close to the low here.
5th May 2005
Losses have reached 104.18 and this may well have formed the low in line with our daily report last week. Even so, this would imply a short Wave c lower and thus we should also be aware of the potential risk of a move down to wave equality with Wave a which is at 103.60. This is also marked by the daily Wave (b) correction at 103.64. Thus we expect a stronger reaction higher soon with the first move reaching the 105.41 intermediate Wave b.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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