Thursday May 5, 2005 - 09:53:39 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 05-05-05
Euro Continues Rise in Quiet Trade
With Golden Week in Asia, Ascension Day in Europe and Parliamentary elections in UK the FX market is predictably quiet. In fact, aside from Christmas week we do not remember a time when the global economic calendar has been so empty. Tonight’s only significant piece of data comes from UK where the PMI Services report printed exactly as expected at 56.5. Although most of the components remained steady, New Business and Future Expectations numbers slipped from last month, only adding more support to the argument that UK economy is slowing down markedly. The pound lost about 30 points in the aftermath as FX market expectations for any further BOE rate hike are now near zero.
On the political front, Tony Blair and Labor party are expected to coast to a record third consecutive Parliamentary win, but the market is concerned about the size of the victory. Fears that disgruntled Labor faithful will stay at home significantly reducing Labor’s majority share of the Parliamentary seats have weighed on the pound in recent days.
In the US, attention will be fully focused on Friday’s NFP report with the market now estimating 174K new jobs. Preliminary indications suggest that the estimates may be on target, but today’s weekly jobless claims will be watched with particular interest. Last week the number registered the second lowest reading in a year printing at 299K. Today, they are expected to increase to 320K. A number lower would confirm the bullish view, but a jump higher would definitely sow doubt in the market and may push euro above the 1.3000 figure if only until the actual report comes out on tomorrow. Jobs are critical to the whole dollar long thesis because steady employment gains would offer the Fed cover to continue its policy of gradual rate increases. If job growth suddenly slows Fed will be under enormous pressure to halt rate hikes lest it tip the country into a recession. Thus, once again, as so often happens in the FX market it all comes down to NFP.
FX Spot Overnight
- EUR firmly bid reaches 2975
- JPY trades to 104.20 before bids materialize
- GBP knocked a bit by slowing PMI Services but hold the 9000 figure
- CHF steady at 1900
- 12:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) CAD 12:30 Canada Building Permits m/m (MAR) Expected -2.0%Previous 13.5
- 12:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD 12:30 Non-farm Productivity (1Q P) Expected 2.3% Previous 2.1%
- 12:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD 12:30 Unit Labor Costs (1Q P) Expected 1.9% Previous 1.3%
- 12:30 GMT – (08:30 AM EST) USD 12:30 Initial Jobless Claims (APR 30) Expected 320K Previous 320K
- 14:00 GMT – (10:00 AM EST) CAD 14:00 Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (APR) Expected 58.5 Previous 63.
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