Thursday May 5, 2005 - 14:29:30 GMT
Share This Story
Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Biweekly Forex Survey Results
In the latest bi-weekly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar improved against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2876 from 1.3075 two weeks earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (May 4 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2870
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) remained roughly neutral the EURUSD after the recent changes in the spot rate at 52 from 40 previously. The GVI-Cumino index measures the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels as of the time when forecasts were made.
The USDJPY mean dollar forecast worsened to 104.88 from 105.69 two weeks earlier. The USDJPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 105.05. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned more neutral the dollar from current levels from two weeks earlier. It was 44 from 43.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to fall to a mean $48.62 in three months from the current spot vs. the previous $52.82 estimate.
In special question, 20% of respondents said they saw the ECB refi rate at 1.75% or lower at yearend 2005, 49% saw 2.0%, 19% saw 2.25%, and 12% saw 2.50% or higher. The current Refi rate is 2.0%.
For complete survey results see:
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3 months: (1st day close 1.2870, average responses:1.2876, Adjusted boundaries 1.3299-1.2501)
48% (40%) 28% 49% 23% (35% 52% 13%). Neutral in absolute terms, but bullish EUR relative to the previous bearish sentiment. This was due to a 7% fall in the strong bearish camp and the 10% increase in the bullish camp. In the meantime, margin specs (long EUR) from the previous survey grew until the end of April, and then reversed, resulting in modestly short now. One month implied volatility turned to the low maintaining roughly the same spread with actual and RR 1m is little changed being near to 0.
USD JPY 3 months: (1st day close 105.05, average responses 104.88, Adjusted boundaries 108.99.-101.01)
50% (40%). 14% 73% 13% (29% 64% 8%). Neutral in absolute terms but USD bullish compared to previous. Notably, strong USD bearish moved from 29% to 14%. Note how both previous EUR/USD and USD/JPY indexes were 40 and now are roughly 50, speaking for a more balanced view in EUR JPY compared to the previous strong bearish one. The CNY argument (as perceived) therefore could be put in a more right perspective.
Margin specs (long JPY) from the previous survey became neutral from long at end April, then grew resulting modestly long now. In the meantime 1 month implied and actual improved, albeit irregularly. RR 1m passed from near 0 vol to 1.2.
OIL 3 months: (1st day close 49.50, average responses 48.62, Adjusted boundaries 55.99-42.01)
48%(45%). 13%78%9%(19%71%10%). Neutral in absolute terms, little changes. Bearish oil diminished 6% mostly becoming neutral.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."