Sunday May 8, 2005 - 08:23:52 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 9th May 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2840 ... 1.2864 ... 1.2884 ... 1.2915
Support....: 1.2793 ... 1.2767 ... 1.2725 ... 1.2683
While early trading should see a recovery to 1.2864-84 we feel a dip to 1.2730-67 is possible
A sharp decline was seen in late trading on Friday and this has moved towards the 1.2806 support. We may have seen an intermediate low on Friday but we should be aware of a possible early dip to 1.2793-1.2806 but feel this should remain intact and allow a recovery higher back to 1.2864-84 but feel this area should cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance requires a break above 1.2884 but then also above the 1.2915 pivot resistance. Only if seen would we look for a larger reversal and a move to 1.2945 at least with next resistance at the 1.2987 corrective high.
With the 1.2987 high remaining intact the losses seen on Friday appear to support our view of losses to the 1.2631-83 area. However, this is unlikely to occur today. More likely we feel that an early recovery should see a move back to 1.2864-84 from where further losses should be seen. The target for the losses is a little ambiguous but we feel it will be between 1.2720-67 and will depend on the degree of the initial pullback.
Elliott Wave Comments:
5th May 2005
With the Wave b at 1.2978 holding we are quietly encouraged with the view that the decline should continue towards the 1.2767 level at least and favor a decline as deep at 1.2683. Thus we have marked yesterday's high as Wave x and will look for a final ABC pattern lower to complete the decline from 1.3124. A flat correction is implied at 1.2767 though with the anticipated Triple Three it would tend to favor an expanded flat which should see 1.2730 minimum and probably 1.2683.
9th May 2005
Last week's marginal breach of 1.2978 was a bit annoying but we have seen our preferred larger count remain intact and we continue to feel that the decline from 1.3124 can be counted as an expanded flat Wave (b) of of Wave -ii-. Two targets can be derived from this pattern, the first being at 1.2683 being a 23% expansion of Wave (a) and then at 1.2631 being a 38.2% expansion of Wave (a). Thus these remain our tentative targets with the only risk being for a flat correction with low expected around 1.2767.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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