Thursday May 12, 2005 - 00:26:45 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 12th May 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2097 ... 1.2130 ... 1.2163 ... 1.2195
Support....: 1.2045 ... 1.2025 ... 1.1992 ... 1.1959
Slightly mixed but while 1.1992-1.2025 supports we still see room for gains to 1.2195
Marginal breach of 1.1965 but with 1.1959 holding we have seen a return to just above the prior 1.2093 high. Although there is an argument to say this may be the top, we feel the greater risk is for 1.1992-1.2025 to continue supporting and for gains to resume towards 1.2145-63 and eventually to the 1.2195 peak once again. Further resistance is found at 1.2216 & 1.2241-48.
No clean break of support yesterday and the bias appears higher. Thus we would only consider a more bearish scenario should the 1.1992-1.2025 support break. If seen this could cause follow-through back 1.1959 and probably down to 1.1918. Further support is then seen in the 1.1880 area.
Elliott Wave Comments:
11th May 2005
We have been a little frustrated with the marginal breaks of support & resistance but continue to view the underlying direction as higher to the 1.2190-00 target. We note a 50% retracement of Wave iii is at 1.1986 while an alternative count would have support around 1.1965 (max 1.1935) and thus we look for resumption of the move higher soon.
12th May 2005
The recovery from our support yesterday is encouraging and does lend support for our view of a retest of the 1.2195 high. We should also be aware of resistance around 1.2241-48 (being a 14.6% expanded flat projection). However, once this high is seen we shall expect a return to the 1.1739 area once again.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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