User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday May 12, 2005 - 21:03:50 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Stars Lining Up For Continued Dollar Strength

DailyFX Fundamentals

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Stars Lining Up For Continued Dollar Strength
· FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index Forecasts Further Losses In Euro
· Pound Slides On Talk o f Rate Cut

US Dollar

The lead story in yesterday’s daily fundamentals was that traders were probably waiting for today’s retail sales data before pounding the euro further towards its February lows. Today’s price action proved that this was indeed the case with dollar bulls coming out in force following the exceptionally strong retail sales report. According to the report, consumer spending doubled expectations in the month of April, rising 1.4% compared to expectations for a 0.7% gain. Excluding the more volatile automobile component, retail sales still rose a strong 1.1% against expectations of 0.5%. In the face of high gasoline prices, the US consumer remained resilient. A rebounding labor market and increasing incomes have helped to increase overall demand. Given that consumer spending accounts for two thirds of GDP, the latest report is certainly good for overall growth and suggests that the soft patch that we saw in March may have only been a one-month phenomenon. As we currently stand, US data is very encouraging with the labor market, consumer spending and the twin deficits improving. April has proved to be good month, but like March, it could also be a one-month anomaly. Economic conditions support further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, but we will need to wait for the data for the month of May before we can say that conditions warrant a Fed tightening above 4%. For the time being though, the dollar rally could very well continue especially since we are not expecting any significant economic releases tomorrow.

Euro

Across the Atlantic, stronger GDP growth from Germany was offset by weaker GDP growth in Italy and the Netherlands. Germany grew by 1.0% on a quarterly basis in Q1 while Italian growth contracted by 0.5%. Even though Germany’s economy is showing signs of improvement, its GDP growth is nominal compared to the US’ 3.1% growth for the same period. The Eurozone’s relative weakness compared to the US’ renewed strength continues to weigh over the EURUSD, supporting further fundamentally based losses in the currency pair. Yet, fundamentals alone are not the only factors hanging over the euro. According to the latest FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index, the ratio of longs to shorts in the EURUSD is 2.25, which is within the extreme +/-3 range. The EURUSD continues to sell off as net long positions grow to highest level against shorts in three months. With the EURUSD finally breaking out of its range to the downside, open interest increased by 11% with long positions growing by 40% and short positions falling by 24%. As long as bulls still try to pick bottoms, the SSI contrarian indicator suggests further losses in the EURUSD.

British Pound

Crashing through the $1.8700 figure and finding a temporary bottom at $1.8600, the British pound sank further as expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England mounted. Sparked by an article printed in the London Times, traders took advantage of a data absent session in agreeing with suggestions of a potential cut in benchmark repo rates as policy officials noted yesterday that declines in housing valuations were justified as rising costs increase. Additionally, with manufacturing, production and retail sales data disappointing to the downside versus consensus estimates, economists are now speculating on the possibility of nascent economic weakness in the United Kingdom. This would shatter the current streak of 48 consecutive quarters of expansion and lead to fears of a looming “soft patch.” Although this will not permanently deface the domestic currency, it may bolster further depreciative “bleeding” till an optimistic tidbit can be found. As a result, market players will be frantically anticipating the release of next week’s consumer price figures and further reports on housing prices provided by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

Japanese Yen

Falling for a second consecutive session, the Japanese yen declined in light of a better than expected machine tool orders report as traders unwound long yen positions on receding expectations of a near term Chinese yuan revaluation. As a result, overall sentiment looks to have now shifted to yen bearishness and, albeit momentarily, may be reflecting weaker growth expectations for the world’s second largest economy. Rising for the month of April, machine tool orders climbed 17.4 percent higher, compared to a 17.1 percent rise in the previous period. Although the CAPEX recovery continues, declines were witnessed domestically, falling 7.3 percent compared with a 12.6 percent vault in March. Conversely, foreign demand for machine tools increased 4.9 percent. This domestic decline may now be suggestive of a slight pullback in the amount of capital invested by Japanese firms, which ultimately fueled optimism earlier on in the year. This may be a cause for concern especially with domestic demand remaining relatively lackluster. Additionally, with money supply and broad liquidity reports relatively in line with estimates, deflationary pressures seem to be languishing.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105